Expert Zone

Where the growth in Q1 came from

September 1, 2014

(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

GA man walks his cow under high-tension power lines leading from a Tata Power sub station in Mumbai's suburbs February 10, 2013. REUTERS/Vivek Prakash/FilesDP growth of 5.7 percent in the April-June quarter was unexpected in view of the southward drift of India’s economy over the past two years. No wonder it pepped up the Bharatiya Janata Party-led government at a time when the ruling coalition is listing its achievements after 100 days in office. The question is where this growth came from and whether it will be sustained in future.

India Markets Weekahead: Time to prune positions in an extended honeymoon

By Ambareesh Baliga
August 31, 2014

(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

The Nifty closed at a new closing high of 7,954 amid volatility in an eventful week that started with the Supreme Court ruling that the allocation of more than 200 coal blocks over the past two decades was illegal.

‎India Markets Weekahead: Correction could follow budget week

By Ambareesh Baliga
July 6, 2014

(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

Last week’s robust pre-budget rally belied expectations, with the Nifty closing up more than 3 percent at a record high of 7,751‎. Automobile sales, manufacturing PMI as well as services PMI showed an uptick. The Iraq turmoil seems to have taken a back seat with oil prices receding from a nine-month peak. A rally in world markets, with life highs for the DJIA and S&P 500, also aided sentiment.

Higher tax revenue from higher growth

June 24, 2014

(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

The 2013-14 budget got completely out of hand because of a whopping shortfall in tax revenue. Development outlays had to be drastically cut to manage the fiscal deficit.

India Markets Weekahead: Pre-budget rally may be muted

By Ambareesh Baliga
June 15, 2014

A man looks at a screen across the road displaying the election results on the facade of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) building in Mumbai May 16, 2014. REUTERS/Danish Siddiqui/Files(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

The Nifty touched a new high of 7,700 before cracking on Friday to slip about 0.5 percent for the week. This was primarily triggered by the unrest in Iraq and the subsequent rise in crude prices.

How to get India on the highway to high growth

June 11, 2014

(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

The president’s address to parliament this week lays out the new government’s roadmap to get India’s economy back to high growth. That will take time and is not easy either.

The primacy of good governance for Modi

June 2, 2014

(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

At his second cabinet meeting, Prime Minister Narendra Modi unveiled a 10-point programme that set out a comprehensive agenda for his ministers. The agenda is a good cocktail of short-term needs and long-term objectives.

Food prices matter: here’s why

By Paul Donovan
May 23, 2014

(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

The rupee at a crossroads

May 19, 2014

(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

The rupee was tossed around quite a bit in the last 10 months. It dropped to a low of nearly 69 to the dollar, creating an economic crisis, before it recovered and is now at 59-60. The threat is not that it may drop once again, but that it may appreciate further and upset the economy in other ways.

Steps the next government should take

April 8, 2014

(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

India’s economy is tottering, inflation is too high and growth too low. The Congress-led UPA government allowed the economy to drift during its second term. Why? Because it did not focus on real issues, failed to govern effectively and did not carry out any significant reforms.