Expert Zone
Straight from the Specialists
Economic consequences of deadlock in Parliament
(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)
The monsoon session of Parliament has been a washout without any important business being transacted. This has been made out to be a political strategy on the part of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to force early elections. Obviously, the Congress-led coalition is unlikely to oblige. The unintended victim is the economy which has been stopped from getting back to growth.
There are a number of important Bills pending in Parliament. The Banking Laws Amendment Bill, the Pension Fund Regulatory and Development Authority Bill and the Insurance Laws Amendment Bill, when passed by Parliament, could have attracted foreign investment.
But political games have to have priority. And looking at the targets and strategies of political parties it is unlikely that Parliament would resume legislative work any time soon. The economy had already lost its momentum with growth dropping from 9 to 5.5 percent, landing the economy into growth stagnation.
Indian markets stuck in a rut
(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)
It’s now been close to four years since domestic and global financial markets have been in a state of flux, plagued by uncertainty, as a slowdown ensures that government after government revises its growth forecast downwards.
Challenging times but hopes of recovery after 2014 polls
(Rajan Ghotgalkar is Managing Director of Principal Pnb Asset Management Company. The views expressed in this column are his own and do not represent those of either Principal Pnb or Reuters)
These are possibly the most challenging times for India because, simply put, every goal post seems to be oscillating.
Why the RBI preferred an SLR cut
(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)
The first quarter review of monetary policy did not create any ripples. The stock market remained flat and investors and consumers showed little interest. That was because RBI Governor Duvvuri Subbarao had made enough noise earlier that the time was not right and conditions were not suitable for a rate cut.
Consequences of an export squeeze
(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)
In June, exports shrank more than five percent to $25 billion largely due to recessionary conditions in major importing countries such as the U.S. and the EU. Although exports are not as critical to us as they are to Singapore or China, they do count for a lot.
The growth versus inflation dilemma
(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)
The RBI is concerned about inflation; the finance ministry has growth as its priority. That, as RBI Governor D. Subbarao mentioned, makes the two almost look like adversaries.
What’s right with India
(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)
Whenever I pick up a newspaper or a magazine — especially The Economist — I keep reading pieces about what’s wrong with India. Corruption is rampant, the infrastructure, what there is of it, is falling to bits, the government is senile and feeble and the economy is flagging — and so on. All of which may be true — but it rather depends on your perspective.
Great potential in India long-term growth story
(Rajan Ghotgalkar is Managing Director of Principal Pnb Asset Management Company. The views expressed in this column are his own and do not represent those of either Principal Pnb or Reuters)
Reforms seem to be the flavour of the season after we relished and put aside the corruption issue.
No silver lining in this monsoon cloud
(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)
India’s monsoon rains have been delayed and were already 30 percent deficient by the end of June. There are doubts whether rains will pick up during the rest of the season. August and September are likely to be dry which will damage crops and reduce farm incomes.
RBI vs the govt: who will blink first?
(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)
At its mid-quarter monetary policy review on June 18, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept its rates unchanged despite expectations of a cut. To further augment liquidity and encourage banks to increase credit flow to the export sector, the RBI has increased the limit of export credit refinance from 15 percent of outstanding export credit of banks to 50 percent, which will potentially release additional liquidity of over 300 billion rupees, equivalent to about 50 basis points reduction in the CRR.
