Expert Zone

Straight from the Specialists

What’s right with India

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

Whenever I pick up a newspaper or a magazine — especially The Economist — I keep reading pieces about what’s wrong with India. Corruption is rampant, the infrastructure, what there is of it, is falling to bits, the government is senile and feeble and the economy is flagging — and so on. All of which may be true — but it rather depends on your perspective.

I live in Europe. Well, I live in Britain.  That’s not quite right either. I live in London. And I can tell you that the perspective on India from Europe or Britain, or even London, doesn’t look all that bad. In fact, from where I’m standing, it looks quite good.

Look at us.

The Euro? Don’t ask. Indebtedness? Everywhere. Growth? Forget it. It’s negative. In other words, we’re going backwards. Corruption and incompetence? Look at the banking sector. Morale? Dreadful. Leadership? There isn’t any. Yes, I’m talking about Europe, the world’s biggest and richest trading area — still.

Great potential in India long-term growth story

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(Rajan Ghotgalkar is Managing Director of Principal Pnb Asset Management Company. The views expressed in this column are his own and do not represent those of either Principal Pnb or Reuters)

Reforms seem to be the flavour of the season after we relished and put aside the corruption issue.

No silver lining in this monsoon cloud

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

India’s monsoon rains have been delayed and were already 30 percent deficient by the end of June. There are doubts whether rains will pick up during the rest of the season. August and September are likely to be dry which will damage crops and reduce farm incomes.

RBI vs the govt: who will blink first?

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

At its mid-quarter monetary policy review on June 18, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept its rates unchanged despite expectations of a cut. To further augment liquidity and encourage banks to increase credit flow to the export sector, the RBI has increased the limit of export credit refinance from 15 percent of outstanding export credit of banks to 50 percent, which will potentially release additional liquidity of over 300 billion rupees, equivalent to about 50 basis points reduction in the CRR.

RBI needs to take bold steps

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

Expectations of a rate cut were legitimate. But the RBI preferred to pause, not quite convinced that inflation is under control. That has been its singular target though it is dressed up to look more appealing as growth-inflation dynamics.

Is there ‘public interest’ in deferring pension bill?

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(Rajan Ghotgalkar is Managing Director of Principal Pnb Asset Management Company. The views expressed in this column are his own and do not represent those of either Principal Pnb or Reuters)

The pension bill, first introduced in 2005, got booted out yet again; only this time in ‘public interest’.

Where will the rupee finally rest?

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

For nearly a decade, the rupee has been stable — moving in the narrow range of 44-45 to the dollar. But since August last year, the rupee began to slide and in less than six months was down 23 percent.

How do we explain India’s economic woes?

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(Rajan Ghotgalkar is Managing Director of Principal Pnb Asset Management Company. The views expressed in this column are his own and do not represent those of either Principal Pnb or Reuters)

Our GDP growth rates have slid consistently quarter on quarter from 8.5 to 5.3 pct. Surely this is in keeping with a glaring trend. Therefore, this sudden surge of emotions and panic after wallowing in so such mass self-deception is surprising to say the least.

Is the economy drifting towards a crisis?

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

Standard & Poor’s India outlook downgrade was expected. What is disturbing — the government managed to do that in less than two years. It was in March 2010 that India was upgraded to ‘stable’ — and now it’s down to ‘negative’. It was not because the government took a wrong step but because it did not take any step at all. And if this continues, the economy will be confronted with a crisis.

Investors shouldn’t read too much into repo rate cut

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

The last time the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) surprised the markets was when it announced a 75 bps cut in cash reserve ration (CRR) days before its mid-quarter review of monetary policy on March 15. It did so again in its annual monetary policy meeting on April 17, with a 50 bps repo rate cut when the markets were either expecting no rate cut or a 25 bps rate cut at best.

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