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Straight from the Specialists

India Markets Weekahead: ‎Tough for the Nifty to break out of its range

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

The Nifty continued its upward trajectory to close at a two-week high of 7,792 in a holiday-truncated week. However, this optimism was not reflected in the broader market, especially the mid caps and small caps.

Among the sectors, public sector banks, realty, infrastructure and capital goods, which led the rally earlier, have underperformed in the last few weeks whereas defensives such as FMCG, pharma and IT stood out, an irony when markets are close to a record high.

Macro data released during the week wasn’t encouraging with consumer inflation, especially food inflation, continued to soar whereas IIP data indicated a renewed slowdown. Exports data released on Thursday indicated that they grew faster than imports, though the deficit touched a high of $12.2 billion.

The Nifty has been in a broad range of 7,500-7,850 since the last two months despite FII. flows of about $2.3 billion during the period. This can be attributed to a lack of substantial triggers to push the markets into a new zone. The hopes and expectations of investors with the new government were reaffirmed with the statement of intent but it seems the markets would await the execution of that intent to break out of the range.

If change does come in 2014

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

The market is pregnant with expectations of a change after the general elections which must be held by next May. You would have to travel far and wide before you come across anyone in India’s financial market who is not hoping – even praying – for change.

The mood on the current policy direction is so gloomy that any alternative is looking like manna from heaven.

Taking the Indian economy to a higher orbit

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author, and not necessarily of Reuters)

Space research in India has come of age in the last five decades and the country is now in the elite club of countries capable of launching satellites for commercial purposes. What made this possible? An environment made conducive by government policy, objectives clearly spelled out, availability of funds, a homegrown talent pool and international tech support. Can a similar strategy work to take the Indian economy and the capital market to stratospheric levels?

India Markets Weekahead – An opportunity to ride the rally

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

It was a stupendous week with 4.5 percent gain and the closing at 5879, the highest point for Nifty in 19 months. The week started with positive international cues of a Greek bailout, and was further strengthened with Moody’s confirmation of a stable rating for India.

India Market Weekahead: Buy on dips with no roadblocks till budget

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

There wasn’t much point-to-point movement on the Nifty but it was not a listless week by any standard.

The burden of subsidies

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

At the Indian media meet at Cannes, the economist in Prime Minister Manmohan Singh came out spontaneously when he said the prices of petroleum products should find their ‘market level’. For a time at least he ignored political compulsions.

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