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India Markets Weekahead – An opportunity for investors


(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

Indian markets were down for a third consecutive week with the Nifty closing 2 percent lower at 5565 on weak economic signals and disappointing corporate results.

The rupee held on at 60.67 to the dollar.

The appointment of Raghuram Rajan as the next governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) brought the market some cheer. Rajan, a former chief economist at the IMF, is seen as a pro-growth policymaker.

International markets ended weak on concerns that the U.S. Federal Reserve could taper down its stimulus programme. Positive data on the Chinese economy was probably the only redeeming feature.

This week, the Companies Bill replacing the Companies Act of 1956 was passed in the Rajya Sabha. This should lead to better corporate governance and investor protection, which our markets need to restore confidence. The trust deficit seems to be at an all-time high with stocks getting butchered at the first whiff of trouble.

India Markets Weekahead: Prudent to hold cash


(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

Indian markets ended steady on Friday after rising to its highest intraday level in nearly two months. The Nifty closed up 0.33 percent at 6029, marking its fourth weekly gain.

A weakening rupee led to intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), which tightened liquidity and lifted short-term interest rates on Monday. Though the central bank’s stance against currency speculation has made it all the more difficult for speculators, it also sent bond yields soaring and led to concerns that an increased cost to borrowers would curtail growth that is already limping at 5 percent. Bond portfolios recorded losses, wiping out gains over the last few months.

India Markets Weekahead: Volatility to continue in results season


(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

After a spirited rally the previous week, the Nifty moved in a band of 150 points between 5750 and 5900, ending with modest gains of 0.53 percent at 5868. It may seem small but the extreme volatility within this band caught traders on the wrong foot.

Time and again, markets prove that predicting them in the short run is hazardous. Investors welcomed the government’s bold decision to increase gas prices but reacted negatively to its ordinance on the food security bill. The already weak rupee cracked further to 60.35 against the dollar as the election gimmick could cost the state exchequer over $20 billion.

India Markets Weekahead: A spirited rally may be a distant dream


(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

The week began with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) maintaining status quo on rates as expected at its mid-quarter monetary policy review. The trade deficit widened to $20.14 billion, a seven-month high and up 13.18 percent over the previous month. Gold seems to be the culprit again and government restrictions don’t seem to deter Indians from buying gold.

The markets held on to hopes that U.S. Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke could bring cheer but the indication of a roadmap for a QE3 pullback saw the dollar rally against most currencies. The rupee was among the worst performers, falling close to 60 against the dollar.

Liquidity reigns supreme as market ignores data points


The Nifty crossed 5350 levels last week after nearly three months with strong buying by FIIs, closing about two pct higher at 5320. Stronger than expected U.S. payroll data, positive cues from the  euro zone and comments from Finance Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram assuring to unveil a path of fiscal consolidation and undertake remedial measures to revive the domestic economy, boosted investor sentiment.

However, negative IIP data along with weak corporate results disappointed the markets in the latter half of the week, causing the indices to trim some of the earlier gains.

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