Straight from the Specialists
(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author, and not necessarily of Thomson Reuters)
Infosys stumped Indian markets again but for a change — positively. Recent management comments had built expectations of underperformance which led to cautious to negative views on the stock. Institutional investors were light on Infosys whereas the more adventurous speculators were short. And we were all caught on the wrong foot when the company declared a revenue growth as well as a net profit much better than consensus expectations.
The question is whether one should buy Infosys after this 17 percent surge? I would continue to be cautious as I believe the knee-jerk reaction is overdone. Does a better performance put Infosys back in line with the guidance given at the beginning of the year? Not really. Could this be a one-quarter wonder? It’s possible and I would await another quarter for confirmation.
The consensus on the street was that markets could be heading for new highs soon and this possibly was the biggest risk they have been facing in the short term. If not for Infosys, the markets may have broken important support levels on Friday. Unlike the underlying confidence in the past few weeks, the markets have displayed weakness in the last few days closing about a percent lower at 5952.
A resolution for the U.S. “fiscal cliff” helped the markets cross the psychological Nifty benchmark of 6,000 to close the week up 1.82 percent at 6,016.
Though I expected a spirited rally, what we witnessed last week is a strong consolidation around 6,000 which could form a solid bottom for the next leg of the rally. This is also facilitating the entry of domestic retail investors which is visible in the mid-cap and small-cap volume and performance. The BSE small-cap index moved up 3.71 percent whereas the BSE mid-cap index gained 3.13 percent.
(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)
Markets struggled to hold beyond Nifty levels of 5900 and closed the week 0.47 percent down, breaking a three-week streak of gains. Uncertainty over the banking regulations bill seems to have overshadowed better-than-expected wholesale price index-based inflation data in November. Industrial production soared by 8.2 percent, surprising analysts and sending signals that green shoots of economic recovery are visible.