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Straight from the Specialists

‎India Markets Weekahead: Correction could follow budget week

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

Last week’s robust pre-budget rally belied expectations, with the Nifty closing up more than 3 percent at a record high of 7,751‎. Automobile sales, manufacturing PMI as well as services PMI showed an uptick. The Iraq turmoil seems to have taken a back seat with oil prices receding from a nine-month peak. A rally in world markets, with life highs for the DJIA and S&P 500, also aided sentiment.

India’s fiscal deficit in the first two months has already touched 45.6 percent of the full-year target. Though this would have been a negative indicator, the markets welcomed Finance Minister Arun Jaitley’s remarks about focusing on fiscal consolidation against “mindless populism“.

The budget on July 10‎ would be a tightrope walk for the finance minister. Political necessities would not allow a drastic reduction in subsidies, although Jaitley may set a road map for their gradual reduction. Income tax payers may not get a huge relief but there could be a token increase in exemption limits.

It would be important for the finance minister to direct new investments into productive asset creation rather than pure financial investments, which we have witnessed during this “rally of hope”. The government needs to kick start the economy and, for this, they need investments to flow in not only from overseas institutions but also channelize domestic savings. I expect the finance minister to provide tax breaks for investments, especially for infrastructure and manufacturing.

India Markets Weekahead: Pre-budget rally may be muted

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A man looks at a screen across the road displaying the election results on the facade of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) building in Mumbai May 16, 2014. REUTERS/Danish Siddiqui/Files(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

The Nifty touched a new high of 7,700 before cracking on Friday to slip about 0.5 percent for the week. This was primarily triggered by the unrest in Iraq and the subsequent rise in crude prices.

The markets were also overbought aided by a relentless rally since May 9‎, with the CNX Nifty climbing about 16 percent, S&P BSE Midcap Index rising 26 percent and the S&P BSE Small cap index jumping 35 percent. The last one-month saw 115 multi-baggers with 92 percent of traded stocks gaining during the period. The probability of picking a loser was minimal. It seemed making money had never been so easy.

Indian markets: Earnings in focus, better to stick to fundamentals

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

It’s reasonable to ask whether the Indian stock market has lost steam after the blistering run-up seen over the past couple of months. Since August, the markets have rallied about 40 percent, with many stocks in high-beta sectors such as infrastructure generating a return of more than 100 percent. At a one-year forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 15x, the Nifty isn’t exactly cheap for retail investors right now.

The Narendra Modi-led government, which contested and won the elections on the development plank, is expected to push for reforms in no time, taking on knotty issues related to taxation and infrastructure.

Markets Weekahead: After new Modi govt, correction to continue for a few weeks

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

After a dream run for markets, we witnessed a correction last week with the Nifty declining about 1.86 percent to close at 7,229. The smaller stocks also paused — the NSE mid-cap index lost about 4.5 percent.

Incidentally, India entered the top 10 markets in terms of market capitalization and we should soon cross the market capitalization of US $ 1.5 trillion once the upswing resumes.

Markets Weekahead: A decisive mandate for equities

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

Not even exit polls could have predicted the landslide election victory that ‎has put the BJP’s Narendra Modi in the driver’s seat for India.

The Nifty, after the initial euphoria of a 6 percent upswing, ended Friday at 7203, merely 80 points higher than the previous day. It was a typical “sell on news” phenomenon.

Markets Weekahead: ‎Time to book profits and not be greedy

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

The highlight of the past week was a stupendous 3 percent rally on Friday with the Nifty ending at a record high of 6858. Investors were in a sombre mood earlier in the week, when the market was threatening to break a crucial support level around 6650.

The sudden turn on Friday and the ferocity of the move took most participants by surprise. It was a combination of fresh buying as well as short covering which resulted in a near 200 point rally. It seemed everyone wanted to join the bandwagon due to the fear of missing a bigger rally.

In defence of the defensives: Why IT, pharma stocks are not pariahs

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

Expectation that the ongoing general election will throw up a stable government has spurred a return to risk in domestic equities. The consequent rally has meant those favoured defensives of the sluggish times – information technology and pharma stocks – received a shearing.

The CNX IT index shed 7.8 percent and CNX Pharma 10.1 percent in March – even as the benchmark Nifty surged 6.8 percent.

India Market Weekahead: Time to take some profits off the table

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

A rally of hope tempered by caution pushed the Nifty 1.2 percent up to 6,776 for the week. Investors believe the worst is over and a new government would be the catalyst for a sustained economic upturn. In election season, hope for a better tomorrow helps the market ignore ground realities.

A record turnout in the ongoing general election is being seen as an anti-incumbency vote. As the market continues moving up, investor hopes for a stable government get priced in, leaving hardly any room for a disappointment. On the other hand, fence sitters who got left out of the rally will join the fray, adding to the momentum already built by investors.

India Market Weekahead: Ride the election rally with some caution

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(Any opinions expressed here are not those of Thomson Reuters)

The Nifty touched a high of 6758 during the week, part of a market rally for 10 consecutive sessions – the longest streak in five years.‎ An overdue correction set in towards the end of the week with the Nifty ending flat at 6694.

Advance-decline data suggests that interest is shifting to the small and mid-cap space where advances outpaced declines. Although we are touching new highs, the missing euphoria indicates investor caution  that is good for the health of the market.

India Markets Weekahead: ‎Ride the election rally but skim the profits

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

The market began the week on a high note after an extended weekend but could not sustain the rally due to profit booking. The Nifty was at a high of 6570 on Tuesday but the rest of the trading days remained lackluster and it ended the week with a marginal loss – at 6495 after the extended trading session on Saturday.

Although the week was marked with heightened political activity as candidates for the general election were announced, the U.S Federal Reserve had a sobering effect on the markets. The Fed decision to continue with further tapering of $10 billion and focus on interest rates, which should start rising sooner than expected, saw corrections in most markets as the dollar strengthened.

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