Expert Zone
Straight from the Specialists
India Market Weekahead – Inflation, FII inflows to be key
(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)
The bulls are back and their four-week winning streak saw the Nifty close at a 29-month high of 6107 on Friday, up about 2.75 percent for the week. Liquidity flows remain robust, fuelling the momentum despite political heat in New Delhi.
The Congress win in Karnataka boosted positive sentiment, followed by industrial output data that was marginally better than expectations. The overall earnings season has been favourable and along with the global rally provided the right environment for the markets to cross the psychological barrier of 6100 in the Nifty and 20000 on the Sensex. The only thing missing is euphoria on the street and broader participation by investors.
Politics was in the spotlight with the Congress romping to a comfortable win in the Karnataka assembly election. The victory in the key southern state took the sting out of the resignation of two cabinet ministers. Parliament had already been adjourned without a date.
The diesel price increase of 0.9 rupees per litre is more evidence that the government is not backing down from reform measures. But there is speculation the pace of reforms will now slow considerably as opposition parties have smelt blood.
Time for a shift in the tax incentive regime?
(Any opinions expressed here are those of the authors and not of Reuters)
The Indian economy is currently on the path of reform with the government liberalising FDI policy and relaxing overseas debt funding. And with the union budget just around the corner, investors are hoping for incentives on the tax front as well.
Traditionally, the government provides profit-linked tax incentives to promote investment in specified industries/states. However, considering the increasing need for investment in developing economies like India, the government is considering a shift from profit-linked tax incentive schemes to investment-linked tax incentive schemes. The desire for such a shift was clear under the proposed Direct Tax Code Bill.
India Markets Weekahead – An opportunity to ride the rally
(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)
It was a stupendous week with 4.5 percent gain and the closing at 5879, the highest point for Nifty in 19 months. The week started with positive international cues of a Greek bailout, and was further strengthened with Moody’s confirmation of a stable rating for India.
Will Indian stocks end 2012 on a happier note?
(Rajiv Deep Bajaj is the Vice Chairman and Managing Director of Bajaj Capital Ltd. The views expressed in this column are his own and do not represent those of Reuters)
The rally in the Indian stock markets, fuelled by the so-called reform announcements, seems to have fizzled out. Frontline indexes have retraced more than 60 percent of the gains made since Sep. 13, 2012, the day the reform measures were made public.
India Markets Weekahead – It’s a no trade zone for now
(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)
Indian markets were in a narrow Nifty band of 5550-5650 last week but volatility kept market participants on tenterhooks.
Yet another infructuous parliament session?
(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Thomson Reuters)
The last session of parliament was a washout. The present one looks to be no different going by its chaotic start.
The year ahead: expectations and apprehensions
(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)
The economy is presently under stress and there are no indications that recovery is underway in spite of recent reforms announced by the government. India is not alone in under-performance. But it has fared too badly for its own reasons.
Economic consequences of deadlock in Parliament
(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)
The monsoon session of Parliament has been a washout without any important business being transacted. This has been made out to be a political strategy on the part of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to force early elections. Obviously, the Congress-led coalition is unlikely to oblige. The unintended victim is the economy which has been stopped from getting back to growth.
