Expert Zone

Pakistan overplays its hand

(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

Pakistan is reportedly calling for a reduction in U.S. drone missile strikes against terrorists sheltering in its tribal border areas, greater transparency from the CIA regarding its counterterrorism activities inside Pakistan, and a reduction in U.S. military trainers in the country.

Following a meeting in Washington between the director of Pakistan’s intelligence service, Shuja Pasha, and CIA Director Panetta on Monday, a Pakistani official told The Washington Post that the CIA must share more information about what it “wants and is doing” inside Pakistan, adding, “They have to stop mistrusting [Pakistani intelligence] so much.”

The problem is that Pakistan’s handling of recent terrorism cases and its dealings with the Afghan Taliban have done little to inspire the trust Pakistani officials seek. Pakistan maintains links with the Afghan Taliban as well as deadly militant groups, such as the Haqqani network, that are responsible for some of the fiercest attacks against coalition soldiers and civilians in Afghanistan.

Moreover, Pakistan has failed to take substantive action against the Lashkar-e-Tayyiba (LeT) terrorist group responsible for the 2008 Mumbai attacks that killed nearly 166, including six Americans. Pakistan has dragged its feet on trying and prosecuting seven LeT members who are widely believed to be behind the Mumbai carnage that it took into custody over two years ago. In fact, one of the alleged ringleaders of the attacks, Zakiur Rehman Lakhvi, had been instructing LeT operatives while in Pakistani custody, raising questions over whether the Pakistanis were “protecting” rather than “prosecuting” him. In congressional testimony, U.S. Pacific Commander Admiral Robert Willard expressed concern about the expanding international reach of the LeT.

Pakistani intelligence officials are seeking to take advantage of the Ray Davis episode to gain leverage in their dealings with the U.S. But the Obama Administration must remain committed to U.S. counterterrorism goals in the region and continue to pursue policies in Pakistan that prioritize protecting the U.S. homeland from additional terrorist strikes. Rather than seeking to change U.S. counterterrorism objectives in the region, Pakistan should propose strategies for jointly tackling the threat.

Davis release signals recalibration of US-Pakistan intelligence ties

(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

After spending almost two months in a Lahore jail for killing two Pakistanis, CIA contractor Raymond Davis was released on Wednesday, ending one of the most serious diplomatic stand-offs between Islamabad and Washington in nine years of partnering in the fight against terrorism.

Davis was set free after family members of the Pakistanis killed by Davis told a Pakistani court that they were dropping charges in exchange for financial compensation, often referred to as “blood money” in Pakistan.

It is likely that the deal to release Davis in exchange for compensation to the victims’ families was reached behind closed doors by Pakistan’s powerful intelligence agency, the Directorate of Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and the CIA.

Pakistani media reports over the last few days hinted that the two intelligence agencies were working to recalibrate the relationship after a series of events had heightened tensions in relations.

According to the Pakistani daily The Dawn, a Pakistani security official had noted in recent days that there had been “some positive developments” in negotiations between the two intelligence agencies and that the two sides were “grudgingly accommodating each other.”

Despite years of working closely to target al Qaeda and other terrorists in Pakistan, relations between the ISI and CIA had begun to fray, partly over Pakistan’s handling of terrorist group Lashkar-e-Tayyiba (LeT), responsible for the November 2008 Mumbai attacks.

Growing religious intolerance in Pakistan spells demise of democracy

(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

Today’s murder of Pakistani Minority Affairs Minister Shahbaz Bhatti by religious extremists establishes a pattern of growing religious intolerance. It is undermining Pakistan’s struggling democracy by shutting down free speech and political expression in the name of a ruthless ideology disguised as religion.

The murderers left pamphlets at the scene of the crime, explaining that they killed Bhatti because of his opposition to controversial blasphemy laws, which are often misused against Pakistan’s religious minorities. Some Pakistani officials had sought to argue that the murder of Punjab Governor Salman Taseer at the hands of his own security guard in January was an anomaly and unreflective of broader societal trends. They were wrong.

I was in Lahore, Pakistan, two weeks ago, and it’s clear that the thin layer of liberal thinkers in Pakistan is getting thinner by the day. Academics and moderate politicians express fear about the current situation in the country and a sense of not knowing what’s coming next.

The case of Raymond Davis, the American embassy officer who is accused of killing two Pakistanis in late January, has energised the religious political parties in the country. They carry out regular protests shouting down America and are beginning to tie the issue of support for blasphemy laws with that of the jailed American. The rapidly developing political dynamics in Pakistan are a dangerous witch’s brew that could portend a significant shift in Pakistani politics to a regime that is more insular, less engaged with the international community, and more repressive toward its own people.

There are signs that the opposition Pakistan Muslim League/Nawaz (PML/N) Party may seek to exploit the Davis case to its political advantage. Last week, the party dismissed all Pakistan People’s Party leaders from the Punjab provincial cabinet, which it controls. This signals that the PML/N may be preparing to make a power grab for the center. Riding on the coattails of public anger over Davis would spell disaster for the future of U.S.–Pakistan relations.

Perfect time to ramp up civil society dialogue

(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

In the midst of a tense bilateral dispute between the U.S. and Pakistan over the case of Raymond Davis — an American Embassy employee who shot and killed two armed Pakistanis in what he claims was self-defense — civil society leaders from both countries met in Lahore, Pakistan from February 17 – 19.

The initiative, dubbed the US-Pakistan Leaders Forum, was convened by the US-Muslim Engagement Initiative — a non-governmental, non-partisan collaboration of four U.S.-based organizations – and facilitated by the Lahore University of Management Sciences, a world-class educational institute started in 1985 by Pakistani industrialist Syed Babar Ali.

During the meetings, in which I had the honor to participate, think tank experts, NGO activists, educational leaders, and agricultural experts sat down, rolled up their sleeves, and generated ideas for closer collaboration between the two countries in areas such as media education, scaling up community peace-building efforts, increasing academic collaboration at the university, primary, and secondary levels, and developing agriculture partnerships that would bring farmers together in hands-on collaborative endeavors.

One outcome of the engagement was to highlight the immediate need to recalibrate the U.S.-Pakistan aid relationship. After providing over $6 billion in U.S. economic assistance to Pakistan over the last nine years, representatives from both countries complained that there was very little to show for it. For instance, a $75 million U.S. grant for teacher training was badly mismanaged and virtually wasted. All agreed there were serious structural problems in the way U.S. aid is delivered that need immediate attention.

A recent GAO report on U.S. civilian assistance to Pakistan recommends several steps to improve the monitoring and accountability of U.S. aid to Pakistan, including requiring Pakistani organizations that receive contracts or grants to implement a conflict of interest policy, recruit more qualified internal audit and procurement staff, embed approved CPA staff, and participate in a capacity-building program.

Some Pakistani youth called for more job-generating public-private partnerships, saying “send us your skilled people, not just your money.” They viewed the public-private Punjab Rural Support Program as a potential model for future U.S. aid programming.