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Straight from the Specialists

India Markets Weekahead – A breakout expected before the year ends

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

Markets struggled to hold beyond Nifty levels of 5900 and closed the week 0.47 percent down, breaking a three-week streak of gains. Uncertainty over the banking regulations bill seems to have overshadowed better-than-expected wholesale price index-based inflation data in November. Industrial production soared by 8.2 percent, surprising analysts and sending signals that green shoots of economic recovery are visible.

After the drubbing in parliament over the FDI-in-retail bill, the main opposition Bharatiya Janata Party seems determined to ensure that the banking bill does not go through without amendments. The fate of other financial bills also hangs in the balance. An immediate trigger for the markets would be a solution to the banking bill impasse.

Policy measures taken by the Congress-led coalition government on the sidelines of the parliament session confirm that such steps will gain momentum once the winter session ends next week. The long awaited National Investment Board has been cleared by the cabinet under the name of the “Cabinet Committee on Investments” and should give a fillip to the infrastructure sector. It is expected that the roadmap for the goods and services tax would also be put on fast track, proving that the government means business.

Nifty to consolidate after crossing psychological barrier of 6000

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High drama in parliament and volatility in the markets, albeit within a tight range, summarizes the action for the week.

Most in the analyst fraternity including myself expected the Nifty to cross the psychological barrier of 6000 after the FDI vote in parliament, but markets defied consensus once again and ended up a paltry 0.4 percent for the week at 5907.

India Markets Weekahead – An opportunity to ride the rally

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

It was a stupendous week with 4.5 percent gain and the closing at 5879, the highest point for Nifty in 19 months. The week started with positive international cues of a Greek bailout, and was further strengthened with Moody’s confirmation of a stable rating for India.

Will Indian stocks end 2012 on a happier note?

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(Rajiv Deep Bajaj is the Vice Chairman and Managing Director of Bajaj Capital Ltd. The views expressed in this column are his own and do not represent those of Reuters)

The rally in the Indian stock markets, fuelled by the so-called reform announcements, seems to have fizzled out. Frontline indexes have retraced more than 60 percent of the gains made since Sep. 13, 2012, the day the reform measures were made public.

The year ahead: expectations and apprehensions

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

The economy is presently under stress and there are no indications that recovery is underway in spite of recent reforms announced by the government. India is not alone in under-performance. But it has fared too badly for its own reasons.

India Market Weekahead: Trading subdued but markets back on track

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

Last week was a volatile one with the stock market poised for a surge but the Nifty eventually closed in the red with a loss of 0.20 percent at 5686.

India Market Weekahead: Buy on dips with no roadblocks till budget

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

There wasn’t much point-to-point movement on the Nifty but it was not a listless week by any standard.

India Markets Weekahead: RBI policy review to be catalyst for markets

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

This was a listless week with the Nifty in the same band of 5640 and 5720 as the previous week, closing about 20 points lower at 5664. The festival  season has begun but the mood on the street remains cautious.

India Market Weekahead – Reforms, RBI rate cut could help Nifty break 5,800

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There was consolidation within a narrow Nifty band of 5,640 and 5,720 last week, with a bit of volatility and a flat closing at 5,684.

Heavyweight results and political heat dominated the mood on the street. The government’s reform agenda continued with a Group of Ministers (GoM) panel clearing a watered down land acquisition bill, a development which was cheered by industry leaders only to be later vetoed by Congress chief Sonia Gandhi. The much awaited expose by activist-turned-politician Arvind Kejriwal failed to create ripples.

India market weekahead: Consolidation seen, earnings in focus

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

October has been touted as a difficult month for stocks, though for the Indian markets there didn’t seem to be anything stopping the repeat show of October 2011 until the flash crash on 5th.

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