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Straight from the Specialists

India Markets Weekahead: RBI policy review to be catalyst for markets

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

This was a listless week with the Nifty in the same band of 5640 and 5720 as the previous week, closing about 20 points lower at 5664. The festival  season has begun but the mood on the street remains cautious.

There were several car launches by Maruti, Ford, Tata and General Motors but by far the most successful one was Maruti Alto 800, an entry-level vehicle which clocked bookings of over 24,000 in a week.

Commuters walk past the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) building in Mumbai February 28, 2011. REUTERS/Danish Siddiqui/Files

The political heat shifted to the opposition camp with Nitin Gadkari, president of the Bharatiya Janata Party, embroiled in a controversy relating to a web of shell companies which purportedly invested in his Purti Power and Sugar Ltd. The Congress-led UPA government can breathe easy till the winter session unless some new expose puts the focus back on them.

India Market Weekahead – Reforms, RBI rate cut could help Nifty break 5,800

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There was consolidation within a narrow Nifty band of 5,640 and 5,720 last week, with a bit of volatility and a flat closing at 5,684.

Heavyweight results and political heat dominated the mood on the street. The government’s reform agenda continued with a Group of Ministers (GoM) panel clearing a watered down land acquisition bill, a development which was cheered by industry leaders only to be later vetoed by Congress chief Sonia Gandhi. The much awaited expose by activist-turned-politician Arvind Kejriwal failed to create ripples.

India market weekahead: Consolidation seen, earnings in focus

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

October has been touted as a difficult month for stocks, though for the Indian markets there didn’t seem to be anything stopping the repeat show of October 2011 until the flash crash on 5th.

Temporary market correction an opportunity to buy

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

Opposition party protests against the UPA coalition government’s economic reforms could not puncture market sentiment in the past four weeks. One domestic brokerage house dealer’s “fat finger” did it in just a few seconds.

Markets Weekahead: Watch out for Nifty levels of 5,900, mid-cap shares to shine

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

The week was expected to be volatile with a possibility of a minor correction but turned out to be one of consolidation. The Nifty closed at 5,703, higher by 12 points, its fourth straight week of gains. Indian markets have been among the best performing ones with gains of 8.46 pct in September. FIIs continued to pour in with last week’s tally at $1.42 billion.

QE3 could boost Nifty to 5,550-5,600 in the short term

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

Indian markets have been buoyant since the European Central Bank’s decision on the unlimited sovereign bond buying program announced last week and the German Constitutional Court’s nod on Wednesday for the same.

Overseas cues to drive market but policy paralysis may cap gains

(The views expressed in this column are his own and do not represent those of Reuters)

The European Central Bank (ECB) came to the rescue of world markets including India, which had a spirited rally on Friday to wipe out the losses of the past two weeks. The rally continued during the special session on Saturday to close the week at 5359, gaining about 1.9 pct. The week started on a positive note due to the recommendation on General Anti-Avoidance Rules (GAAR) dilution but failed to maintain momentum due to various disappointing data points as well as the political imbroglio.

GAAR-supported bounceback tough to sustain

(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

A reversal after four weeks of gains saw the Nifty closing 2.38 pct lower at 5258. The mid-cap segment of the market caved in earlier with the large caps holding fort till Thursday. The Parliament logjam continued on the “Coalgate” issue and hopes of any worthwhile business being conducted in this monsoon session are dim. Given the political scenario, the war-rooms of political parties are getting into election mode, which could be earlier than 2014. This too will hardly raise hopes for Indian markets as the electorate seems too fractured to have a strong government which would have the ability to push through reforms, including non-populist ones.

Liquidity reigns supreme as market ignores data points

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The Nifty crossed 5350 levels last week after nearly three months with strong buying by FIIs, closing about two pct higher at 5320. Stronger than expected U.S. payroll data, positive cues from the  euro zone and comments from Finance Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram assuring to unveil a path of fiscal consolidation and undertake remedial measures to revive the domestic economy, boosted investor sentiment.

However, negative IIP data along with weak corporate results disappointed the markets in the latter half of the week, causing the indices to trim some of the earlier gains.

Overseas cues to drive the market but limited upside

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A positive week for the markets saw volatility in a narrow band with Nifty gaining about 115 points to close at 5216, a gain of about 2.25 pct. The midcaps and small caps outperformed the frontline stocks indicating retail interest.

FIIs continued with their buying spree lapping up about US$ 535 million worth of stocks. The new finance minister  Palaniappan Chidambaram was given a thumbs up but expectations of any radical move are low especially after the disappointment from Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in the last fortnight.

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