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Straight from the Specialists

India Market Weekahead – PM’s call for “animal spirit” gets the bull raging

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

The last trading day of June brought back memories of a raging bull market with a single-day gain of over 2.5 pct while the month ended with a 6 pct gain. On taking over the finance portfolio, Manmohan Singh along with his ‘dream team’ seems determined to revive both domestic as well as institutional sentiment. It started off by mending announcements made by his predecessor, especially the general anti-avoidance rules (GAAR) which kept foreign investors away in the last few months.

The call for revival of the “animal spirit” in the economy coupled with positive sound bites from the Euro summit helped the rupee bounce back sharply to 55.60 from record lows of 57+. It seemed that he has been able to stall the vicious cycle temporarily but whether he turns it around will depend on the flow of policy action over the next few weeks.

The new draft guidelines on GAAR cheered the markets. It has suggested that the tax evasion rules would not apply retrospectively and clarified that only income accruing after April 1, 2013 will be subject to the provisions of the GAAR and will be triggered only above a certain income threshold. Softness on the Vodafone tax issue has also lifted corporate sentiment. This helped revive the FII sentiment with fresh upgrades from foreign brokerage houses such as Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley, BNP Paribas and JP Morgan.

India Market Weekahead: Time to buy after a period of caution

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

Markets opened with a healthy dose of optimism last week. Two big events were expected to boost sentiment. On the global front, Greece election results eased fears of immediate global financial turmoil. Back home, expectations were high of an interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to boost the falling economy.

India market weekahead – Watch out for Greece and RBI policy review

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

The markets remained highly volatile during the entire week as investors remained ambivalent about the likely outcome of the elections in Greece and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) policy meet.

India Market Weekahead: Book out partially to play safe

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

After a sell-off in May, the mood has turned upbeat so far in June with benchmark indices hitting a one-month high against our expectation last week that the markets could remain subdued.

India Market Weekahead – Brace for lows

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

Equities reacted sharply due to continued concerns over the euro zone crisis and particularly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth numbers which were much below the most pessimistic forecast. Minor relief in the form of favourable opinion polls in Greece along with expectations for a policy stimulus in China to support growth failed to provide the necessary impetus to take the Nifty beyond the 5000 mark on a sustainable basis.

India Market Weekahead – Policy action, rupee to decide market direction

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

The week gone by displayed indecisiveness by participants as the markets garnered small gains after moving in a tight range. The Nifty managed to hold on to the 4900 level mark as investors cheered the government’s announcement to raise petrol prices in an attempt to revive the policy inaction tag.

India Market Weekahead – Time to start buying

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

May is typically a bear month for the stock markets as players often look to take advantage of the adage, ‘sell in May and go away’. Before going on vacation, I was expecting the markets to correct to levels of 5000/5050 but was pleasantly surprised to see the crack leading to around 4800 levels. All the negative factors compounded over the past few weeks gave momentum to the ‘sell’ sentiment which remained jittery over the fate of Greece after an inconclusive election.

India Market Weekahead – Time to “sell in May and go away”?

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

Markets were jolted this week by news that Standard & Poor’s cut India’s long-term rating outlook to negative from stable, citing slowing growth and a ballooning current account deficit. The negative outlook signals at least a one-in-three likelihood of the downgrade of India’s sovereign rating within the next 24 months.

India Market Weekahead – Volatile market within a narrow range

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

A sharper-than-expected cut of 50 basis points in the repo rate boosted the benchmark indices early during the week. However, as expected, the Nifty could not gain higher than 5350 as apprehensions about the limited scope of further rate cuts suppressed sentiment.

Global cues likely to dominate market

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

The Indian market ended with minor gains in a truncated week as data showing slowdown in growth in the services sector in March and weak global stocks hurt sentiment.

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