Expert Zone

Straight from the Specialists

Markets await rollout of policy action

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

We saw some tiredness in the markets with subdued optimism as compared to the previous 4-5 weeks as the bouncebacks were not as sharp and strong. The Nifty tended to close at the lower end of the band at 5227, a fall of about 80 points. A major disappointment during the week was the below-expectation result from IT bellwether Infosys followed by a lower annual guidance.

May IIP data showed a moderate growth of 2.4 pct which was above expectations after two consecutive months of de-growth. The monsoon too was catching up, though it is still seen to be deficient by 23 pct with Karnataka and Maharashtra being worry spots. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) had last week spoken about the possibility of the occurrence of El Nino which is associated with low rainfall. We should be able to gauge the impact by the end of July.

The government has initiated the process of building trust amongst the foreign investor community, though policy reforms are yet to see the light of day. On Friday, Manmohan Singh set up an expert panel to finalise the General Anti-Avoidance Rule (GAAR) with just one representative from the tax department, sending out a strong signal that the tough stand taken by his predecessor would be diluted to a large extent. FIIs too seem to have taken a cue, making substantial purchases to the extent of $550 mln in the last seven sessions.

India Market Weekahead – Time to book partial profits

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

A stupendous rally towards the end of June was followed by consolidation in the first week of July. Though the benchmark Nifty index ranged in a narrow band of 60 points between 5270 and 5330, the broader market especially the mid-caps were in focus with some of them returning more than 20 pct during the week. After a long time we saw domestic investors returning to the equity markets albeit with a lower risk appetite.

India Market Weekahead – PM’s call for “animal spirit” gets the bull raging

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

The last trading day of June brought back memories of a raging bull market with a single-day gain of over 2.5 pct while the month ended with a 6 pct gain. On taking over the finance portfolio, Manmohan Singh along with his ‘dream team’ seems determined to revive both domestic as well as institutional sentiment. It started off by mending announcements made by his predecessor, especially the general anti-avoidance rules (GAAR) which kept foreign investors away in the last few months.

India Market Weekahead: Time to buy after a period of caution

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

Markets opened with a healthy dose of optimism last week. Two big events were expected to boost sentiment. On the global front, Greece election results eased fears of immediate global financial turmoil. Back home, expectations were high of an interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to boost the falling economy.

India market weekahead – Watch out for Greece and RBI policy review

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

The markets remained highly volatile during the entire week as investors remained ambivalent about the likely outcome of the elections in Greece and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) policy meet.

India Market Weekahead: Book out partially to play safe

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

After a sell-off in May, the mood has turned upbeat so far in June with benchmark indices hitting a one-month high against our expectation last week that the markets could remain subdued.

India Market Weekahead – Brace for lows

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

Equities reacted sharply due to continued concerns over the euro zone crisis and particularly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth numbers which were much below the most pessimistic forecast. Minor relief in the form of favourable opinion polls in Greece along with expectations for a policy stimulus in China to support growth failed to provide the necessary impetus to take the Nifty beyond the 5000 mark on a sustainable basis.

India Market Weekahead – Policy action, rupee to decide market direction

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

The week gone by displayed indecisiveness by participants as the markets garnered small gains after moving in a tight range. The Nifty managed to hold on to the 4900 level mark as investors cheered the government’s announcement to raise petrol prices in an attempt to revive the policy inaction tag.

India Market Weekahead – Time to start buying

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

May is typically a bear month for the stock markets as players often look to take advantage of the adage, ‘sell in May and go away’. Before going on vacation, I was expecting the markets to correct to levels of 5000/5050 but was pleasantly surprised to see the crack leading to around 4800 levels. All the negative factors compounded over the past few weeks gave momentum to the ‘sell’ sentiment which remained jittery over the fate of Greece after an inconclusive election.

India Market Weekahead – Time to “sell in May and go away”?

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

Markets were jolted this week by news that Standard & Poor’s cut India’s long-term rating outlook to negative from stable, citing slowing growth and a ballooning current account deficit. The negative outlook signals at least a one-in-three likelihood of the downgrade of India’s sovereign rating within the next 24 months.

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