Expert Zone

Straight from the Specialists

‘Sense of disbelief’ in markets to extend current rally

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

As they say, it is always darkest before the dawn. Equity markets seem to be the finest proponents of this axiom. They have a habit of surprising investors. What we have seen so far in 2012 sums it up pretty well.

Rewind to December and it seemed that markets might fall into an abyss — falling rupee, rising inflation, tight liquidity, sovereign debt concerns in Europe, FII outflows, rising fiscal deficit and widening current account deficit made a perfect recipe for disaster. Fast forward to the present and we have seen the rupee recover by 10 pct from its lows, inflation down to 7.5 pct, RBI supporting the rupee and infusing liquidity by way of OMOs and a CRR cut, European Central Bank (ECB) on its way to infuse huge chunks of liquidity in the banking system, possibility of U.S. Fed keeping rates low through 2014, FIIs resuming their inflows in Indian equities and current account deficit being expected to narrow due to an import duty hike on gold imports.

Equity markets are up more than 15 pct in 2012 in a rally which at first looked like a short covering rally, but later, due to its sheer ferocity, has made some people think it may be the start of a more sustainable upward move.

India Market Weekahead: Too good to last much longer

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

The market has continued its upward move for the sixth consecutive week, gaining over 15 pct in 2012 and 20 pct over its December bottom without any worthwhile correction. The excellent market rally during the past few weeks is helped by global liquidity and strong FII inflows. However, mild profit booking was seen as the Nifty approached the all important resistance zone of 5400-5450.

Sensex on the bounce

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

The year 2012 has begun well for the stock market. In just six weeks, the Sensex was up 13 percent which made up more than a half of the fall in the previous 52 weeks. Will this trend survive the rest of the year?

India Market Weekahead: Use opportunity to partially book profits

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

Markets surged over 2 pct during the week and are up 14 pct YTD driven by liquidity inflows from foreign investors, a CRR cut by the RBI, hopes of interest rate cuts in coming months, positive economic data and the government’s intention to kick-start the process on the policy front. The rally was unaffected by the court verdict on the 2G scam and the indices resumed an upward march.

India Market Weekahead: Time to take profits but increase exposure on correction

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

The markets extended a winning streak and gained 3 pct during the week driven by strong inflows from foreign institutional investors, a decent set of quarterly numbers from key companies, positive news flows on the policy front and the RBI decision to cut cash reserve ratio (CRR) by 50 basis points.

India Market Weekahead: RBI policy holds the key

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

Markets extended a rally for the third consecutive week led by strong FII inflows. FIIs have pumped in $1.2 billion so far this year as risk sentiment stabilised after several European debt auctions saw lower borrowing rates and overwhelming demand. Improvement in U.S. economic data, rupee appreciation and December quarter earnings exceeding lower expectations helped the market rally nearly 8 pct in three weeks.

Start topping up portfolio on correction

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

Indian equities have posted a good show so far this year with gains of around 5 pct. Receding euro zone debt worries and a stronger-than-expected growth in industrial production in November have strengthened investors’ sentiment. Food inflation continued to show a negative trend which also aided sentiment.

Volatile but undecided markets, awaiting cues

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

Trading for the New Year began on a positive note after the government’s decision to allow foreign nationals to invest directly in the country’s listed companies and after data showed a sharp improvement in manufacturing activity in December.

Stock market under stress

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

The first big jolt to the market after the 2008 crisis had come last August when FIIs disinvested 95 billion rupees worth of equity and moved into liquid assets. That brought the Sensex down by 1500 points and pulled the dollar up by 4 rupees.

India Market Weekahead: Testing times but patience to be rewarded

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

Key indices witnessed a deep cut this week with the Nifty falling below the psychologically important support level of 4700 for the first time since November 2009. Experts have begun predicting a crash and rightly so, as all the levers of the economy have gone for a toss with pessimistic news flows. So the moot question is whether the market has discounted all the negatives? If yes, then why are Indian markets underperforming global counterparts week after week?

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