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Straight from the Specialists

India Markets Weekahead: Await a sharper correction to nibble in

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

The truncated week which opened after a five-day vacation was in a sombre mood except on Thursday, when markets bounced back due to a dovish Fed commentary. Friday again saw a correction, with the Nifty closing the week at 7860, down 1.07 percent.

People walk past the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) building in Mumbai May 13, 2014. REUTERS/Danish Siddiqui/FilesThe prospect of world economic slowdown perturbed international markets, and the Dow saw its worst week since May 2012, which in turn affected Indian markets. FIIs continued to pull out, increasingly worrying traders who are already baffled by the volatility.

The results season started off on a positive note with Infosys declaring better-than-expected profits and a bonus of 1:1. Although the stock rose 7 percent, it wasn’t enough to support sentiment in the rest of the market including the IT pack.

The automobile sales data for September continued to show an uptick while the HSBC PMI data for September was mixed, with services rising to 51.6 but manufacturing declining to 51.

How high will the Sensex go?

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

A bronze bull sculpture is seen as an employee walks out of the Bombay Stock Exchange building in MumbaiSince April, the stock market has been in a frenzy after a long period of utter gloom. In quick succession, the Sensex jumped month after month to cross 26,000 on July 7. This was not mere euphoria created by the election of the Narendra Modi government, with a single-party majority in the Lok Sabha after a long time.

Indian hedge funds get knocked down but get up again

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

The fortunes of hedge funds focused on India continue to twist and turn, with many plots and subplots. After witnessing widespread losses and heavy redemptions in 2008, Indian hedge fund managers bounced back remarkably to post a 50 percent return in 2009. They continued their good form in 2010, delivering healthy gains of 12 percent during the year.

But in 2011, the managers witnessed losses amid declining markets and a depreciating rupee. At the end of that year, many managers expressed confidence in the underlying market for the following year and predicted gains for the rupee by mid-2012 — both these predictions came to pass. The Eurekahedge Indian Hedge Fund Index was up 13.13 percent in 2012, making it the strongest regional hedge fund mandate for the year. Some of the funds even witnessed asset inflows in 2012 and early 2013, a rarity for Indian hedge funds since the financial crisis.

How the RBI’s recent measures affect you

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Reuters)

Banking is the backbone for growth in large economies such as India. Banks provide short-term finance to trade, industry and agriculture while also ensuring excess money is channelized into productive assets via deposits and financial intermediation.

Banks have to work under the stipulated policies of the central bank with respect to deposit mobilisation and lending for which they need to maintain minimum cash balances and government securities.

India Markets Weekahead – Company results key for market direction

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author, and not necessarily of Thomson Reuters)

Infosys stumped Indian markets again but for a change — positively. Recent management comments had built expectations of underperformance which led to cautious to negative views on the stock. Institutional investors were light on Infosys whereas the more adventurous speculators were short. And we were all caught on the wrong foot when the company declared a revenue growth as well as a net profit much better than consensus expectations.

India Markets Weekahead – Set for new high with no roadblock in sight

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A resolution for the U.S. “fiscal cliff” helped the markets cross the psychological Nifty benchmark of 6,000 to close the week up 1.82 percent at 6,016.

Though I expected a spirited rally, what we witnessed last week is a strong consolidation around 6,000 which could form a solid bottom for the next leg of the rally. This is also facilitating the entry of domestic retail investors which is visible in the mid-cap and small-cap volume and performance. The BSE small-cap index moved up 3.71 percent whereas the BSE mid-cap index gained 3.13 percent.

India Markets in 2013: ball is in government’s court

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

If calendar year 2012 was the year of scams in India which helped induce some much needed government reforms, the year 2013 is expected to be a year of hope and expectation for India and India Inc. There are expectations on better political governance, fall in inflation levels and hence interest rates, creation of an investment friendly business environment and lots more. It’s also the year with the last finance budget before the 2014 general elections.

India Markets Weekahead – A breakout expected before the year ends

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

Markets struggled to hold beyond Nifty levels of 5900 and closed the week 0.47 percent down, breaking a three-week streak of gains. Uncertainty over the banking regulations bill seems to have overshadowed better-than-expected wholesale price index-based inflation data in November. Industrial production soared by 8.2 percent, surprising analysts and sending signals that green shoots of economic recovery are visible.

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