Expert Zone

Straight from the Specialists

India Market Weekahead: Investor confidence, patience to be tested

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

The week that went by was quite a turbulent one which witnessed the Nifty plummet to a 2-year closing low on concerns of slowing growth, weak corporate earnings and a faltering rupee. Fears of a global economic slowdown continued to weigh on Indian stocks.

With increasing dollar demand in India as foreign investors withdrew from the country, the Indian rupee witnessed a sharp slide this week. At 52.76, the rupee plunged to record lows as fears of an unstable euro zone and a gloomy global economy persisted.

The rupee continues to hover around record low levels and hence sharp volatility can be expected in the coming days. The depreciating rupee also adds to the woes of FIIs whose losses have topped up another 20 pct in the last three months. Closer home, a depreciating rupee will only aggravate inflation, play havoc on the deficit and affect corporate performance.

Internationally, apart from Fitch’s downgrade of Portugal, sentiments were also hit after German Chancellor Merkel negated expectations of introducing joint Euro bonds and ruled out any broadening of ECB’s role as a last resort lender. This has resulted in continued pressure on bond yields to move higher. Wary of dwindling market confidence in euro zone debt, euro zone member states are considering dropping private sector participation in the region’s permanent bailout fund due in 2013. This move if implemented would lead to undermining market confidence in euro zone sovereign bonds.

India Market Weekahead: Re-test of earlier lows expected

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

Initial optimism over the resignation of Italian Prime Minister Berlusconi faded quickly and there was further intensification of euro zone fear during the week. The Indian markets underperformed immensely vis-à-vis its global peers with a deep cut of 5 pct during the week. The sharp pangs of distressing high inflation, weaker rupee, disappointing corporate results and FII selling pushed the markets back to its earlier range of 4700 – 5200.

India markets weekahead: Moody’s rating, inflation to set the tone

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

The week that went by was quite a turbulent one as domestic and international factors dampened market sentiments, resulting in a 2.1 pct decline in Nifty in what was a truncated trading week. We were saved from a possible savage cut on Thursday as it was a market holiday.

India markets weekahead: New range for markets but scepticism abounds

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

Markets finally came out of the range last week with the Nifty breaking the 5200/5250 resistance after a positive outcome to the long-awaited plan to resolve the European debt crisis. The plans included a ‘haircut’ of 50 pct on Greek debt, an increase to the size of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), and a 9 pct core capital threshold for European banks.

Markets weekahead: Infosys results, IIP data to determine trend

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

The Nifty regained the 4,900 mark after plunging to approximately 4,750 levels during the week, as Indian indices played catch-up with a rally in global indices later in the week on hopes that Europe will recapitalise its banks to tame the euro zone debt crisis.

Truncated but action-packed week

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

Markets displayed a spell of volatility in derivatives expiry week as the Nifty continued to remain below the psychological 5,000 mark. Continued uncertainty on the European economic situation, likely muted-to-weak Q2 Sept corporate earnings and weak global stocks weighed on market sentiment.

India Markets Weekahead: Savage correction but time to buy

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

Markets succumbed to selling pressure and the Nifty corrected to nearly 4,800 levels taking YTD losses to 20 pct. Two key events dominated the markets this week, namely the falling rupee and ‘operation twist’ by the U.S. Fed.

India Markets Weekahead: World stocks, RBI policy expectation to dictate trend

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

As indicated in the previous week’s column, Nifty respected support levels of 4750/4800 and rebounded to 5000+ levels in a truncated yet action-packed week.

Indian stocks: Paradise for value investors

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

The BSE Sensex romance with the 16,000 level seems to have been rekindled, with the Sensex closing below it on August 26, after a gap of more than 18 months during which it touched a high of 21,109 (missing the all-time high of 21,207 by a whisker).

Next week crucial as markets at tipping point

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

The Nifty finally gave in to selling pressure and fell below 4,800 in spite of a fragile attempt to hold on to those levels during the week.

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