India’s election forecast: the street or the punters?

May 12, 2009

India’s bookies are still holding out on the Congress party scraping through a largely issueless election with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh the firm favourite to retain his post. They have given L.K. Advani, leader of the Bharatiya Janata Party, a 3-1 chance to win the top job.

But are the bookies, who operate below the radar, missing out on a possible late advance by BJP?

Shares rose 4 percent to their highest close on Tuesday on investor speculation that the BJP, seen as business-friendly, may have gained momentum in the final stages of a mammoth election.

Isn’t it a bit unusual that Dalal Street is betting on a BJP win while the bookmakers are sticking to the Congress?

Or is it just speculation in an election as muddled as this, with no real clear pattern?

The lack of any polls makes it even more difficult. Perhaps there will be some clarity once the exit polls begin rolling out after the final phase of voting ends on Wednesday.


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It’s gonna be a thriller! the cong. & bjp are goin to win athe major chunk so let’s get ready for election 2012…
cong-185, pawar-12, dmk-8,mamta-15,
bsp-21, commies-32, naidu-12, bjd-9,
bjp-155,akali-4, trs-3, jd(u)-20,agp-3, SS-12
jaya-25, others-19. = 543

Posted by anup | Report as abusive

the result will be 50 50. No majority for any major parties. there will be a lot of drama after results. there will be war for the pm post. regional parties will dominate and dictate. lots of confusion will arise. you cannot guess who will join with whom. a melo drama will be staged. see you.

Posted by ramji | Report as abusive

we will win

Posted by Raju chowdhary | Report as abusive

It will be beginning of a bad times if BJP with its allies makes it to the highest office at the cost of Manmohan Singh.Our PM should be globally respected as we are no more a so called developing country.Atalji had this quality but Advani & most of the BJP leaders have not risen beyond the municipal agenda.

Manmohan Singh is short in stature but is tall among the tallest and suitably fits into this position. He has amply demonstrated it on several occassion which all of us know.

I hope he gets reelected and leads the country for the full second term with less hinderance from the allies.

Posted by Shibli Fatmi | Report as abusive

BJP winning more than 150-160 seats in Central, Congress – 120-130 seats, Communists – 30-40 seats, RJD – 4 seats, LJP – 2 seats, JDU – 20 seats, AGP – 4 seats, INLD – 3 seats, Akali Dal – 3 seats, Shiv Sena – 9 seats. Major loser will be Mr. Chidambaram.

Posted by Naveen Sinha | Report as abusive

A few thoughts, without meaning it anyone:
1.. Even Hitler, Idiamin, Mussolini were winning elections. Is winning election a sanction for their innocence or capability or capacity ? Did the winning make them better persons ?
2.. If winning arithmatic of cumulating percentage by the alliance of convenience decides democracy, doesn’t it sound like something is missing ,,,?
3.. If after people elect a party for their stand before election, and if the party switches to another group of different policies, …. Doesn’t it amounting to the citizen becoming a fool, that his rep is no more representing his thoughts ?
4.. If VoterList remains incomplete, for whatever reason, how can the poll be said to be representative ?
Therefore, what democracy are we trumpeting about, when we openly discuss who would run behind whom, and which party may or may not be doing whatever it can to share the power pie ?
5.. So… , the report of tripling of law makers wealth sounds meaningful, that all politicos are professionals using the garb of democracy etc for selfpromotions.

This I write after polls are over, but before the results are out. That is, during the hot debates of ugly traders looking for self selling horses. Each talking one different thing each day. Very good debaters are also very good con-coctors, spinning fib and hypocrisy into true verdicts.

How many more months, the new government … is another quest for the exit poll experts. Ho ho.

Posted by max | Report as abusive


— typical pessimist – all cry, no play…

Posted by anup | Report as abusive

I thought BJP winning more than 180-200 seats in Central, Congress – 80-100 seats, Communists

– 60-800 seats, RJD – 3-7 seats, LJP – 4 seats, JDU – 18 seats, AGP – 2 seats, INLD – 1 seats,

Akali Dal – 5 seats, Shiv Sena – 12 seats. Major loser will be Mr. monmohan sing.

Posted by ebizzkolkata | Report as abusive

the final deciding factor will be the srilankan tamil issue.therefore “jaya” will have to support a party which will solve the tamil issue. so it will be not congress.

Posted by kumar | Report as abusive

Shashi Tharoor should be made Foreign Minister ( External Affairs) considering his experience with United Nations and the rest of the world.

Posted by Anil Kumar | Report as abusive