India’s election forecast: the street or the punters?
India’s bookies are still holding out on the Congress party scraping through a largely issueless election with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh the firm favourite to retain his post. They have given L.K. Advani, leader of the Bharatiya Janata Party, a 3-1 chance to win the top job.
But are the bookies, who operate below the radar, missing out on a possible late advance by BJP?
Shares rose 4 percent to their highest close on Tuesday on investor speculation that the BJP, seen as business-friendly, may have gained momentum in the final stages of a mammoth election.
Isn’t it a bit unusual that Dalal Street is betting on a BJP win while the bookmakers are sticking to the Congress?
Or is it just speculation in an election as muddled as this, with no real clear pattern?
The lack of any polls makes it even more difficult. Perhaps there will be some clarity once the exit polls begin rolling out after the final phase of voting ends on Wednesday.