India Insight

Is India playing its hand well over Mumbai?

Simon Denyer

Jan 7, 2009 03:58 EST

It has been a tense game of poker between India and Pakistan since the Mumbai attacks. On the face of it, India had the much stronger hand — not least because it captured one of the attackers alive and got him to confess to being trained in Pakistan.

But has it played its cards well?

Some analysts say India overplayed its hand in the initial days after the attack by saying the military option remained open.

That allowed Pakistan to cloud the issue and raise the spectre of an Indian military strike — neatly uniting the country behind the army and against India.

One former foreign secretary told me India had made a mistake on those initial days, by making a threat it was not prepared to carry out and allowing Pakistan the chance to play the victim.

Since then, New Delhi has been much more restrained and cautious in what it has said, admirably so according to diplomats and analysts I have spoken to. On Monday it presented its carefully complied dossier of evidence to Pakistan and other countries.

But Prime Minister Manmohan Singh raised the stakes again this week by suggesting that the Pakistani “agencies” must have known about and supported the plan to attack Mumbai.

Singur: It ain’t what you do, it’s the way that you do it

Simon Denyer

Aug 29, 2008 08:06 EDT

As the deadlock over Singur and the Tata Nano plant rumbles on, much of the debate seems to be missing the point.

This week, Mukesh Ambani said a “fear psychosis is being created to slow down certain projects of national importance” and said industry should be encouraged to make such large investments.

But in the words of the old song by Ella Fitzgerald (and more recently Bananarama) “It ain’t what you do, it’s the way that you do it”.

When I visited Singur back in February 2007, the government claimed that 95 percent of the 14,000 farmers on the affected land had voluntarily accepted an offer of compensation.

The government also claimed the land was not fertile, supporting just one crop a year, and said the compensation package was “exemplary”.

A day spent touring Singur was enough to shed doubt on those claims. Not only was this good, well-irrigated land supporting several crops a year, but more importantly many farmers insisted they had not agreed to leave their land.

In village after village, I found, farmers said they had not signed consent forms, insisting that communist party workers had falsified their signatures.

Sophistication and savagery in Ahmedabad

Simon Denyer

Jul 28, 2008 08:04 EDT

One of the most striking things about the weekend’s bomb attacks in Gujarat was the mixture of savagery and sophistication.

Savagery because of the way a second wave of bombs were detonated at a hospital, apparently to target the crowds of concerned relatives who had gathered there. Had they been watching Contract, a recently released Bollywood film with a similar plotline?

Sophistication because of the way the coordinated attack was planned and executed without the intelligence agencies getting a sniff of it, even though dozens of people must have been involved.

It also looks as though the IP address of an American living in Mumbai was hacked to send an email just before the first blasts. Perhaps the perpetrators remembered how Daniel Pearl’s kidnappers were traced in 2002 from a email sent from a cybercafe in Karachi. This time the sender of the email will be harder to trace.

The bombers also stayed one step ahead of the police by not using mobile phones to detonate Saturday’s blast. That allowed the bombers to detonate the second set of bombs without having to worry about the mobile phone network being closed down (as police in Bangalore did on Friday). It could also will rob the police of some potentially valuable leads.

By reportedly using old, rented bicycles instead of newly bought ones, as they did in Jaipur, the bombers may also have covered their tracks more carefully.

The email from the Indian Mujahideen was professionally put together, even if its message was one of hatred. In it, the group insisted that “each and every Mujahid belongs to this very soil of India”, and mocked the “cunning ones who call themselves the ‘Intelligence Bureau’”.

Searching for a brighter future for India

Simon Denyer

Jun 17, 2008 01:37 EDT

Sometimes journalists are accused of only writing about bad news, so I wanted to share with you a wonderful day I had last Friday travelling to Hyderabad.

For a change, even the journey was smooth. I went on a brand-new plane with one of India’s new airlines — not only was the service good, but it actually left exactly on time, and arrived early. A bit of a rarity in my recent experience of India’s congested airports and airspace.

And when I arrived, what an airport. The Rajiv Gandhi International Airport, which was opened in March, is truly state-of-the-art, incredibly clean, very spacious and stylish. A public-private partnership, it would grace any country in the world, and clearly had been built with room for Hyderabad to expand. Again, a pleasant change from Delhi’s chaos, where the airport is several steps behind demand.The private sector won’t solve all of India’s problems, but here were a couple of examples of liberalisation at its best, of reforms which have unleashed the country’s vast economic potential.

My destination was the new Google office and India headquarters, where I was giving a talk on my life as a foreign correspondent, and especially the last six years in South Asia. I also gave a similar talk to a smaller crowd at Indian School of Business, recently ranked at number 20 in the Financial Times list of the top business schools around the world.

The people I met at both places were enthusiastic, intelligent and dynamic. They asked plenty of thoughtful, probing questions about the media, and were generally fun to hang out with. The energy at Google was pretty contagious.

It’s the sort of day which made me genuinely optimistic about India’s potential. If there is a downside, though, it is that very little of this energy and dynamism seems to be going towards solving India’s continuing problems, of poverty and heathcare and education.

The young seem pretty cynical about politics, and probably have good reason to be. Not that many of them could break into politics even if they wanted to, without the right family or vote bank behind them.

Amid chaos, Nepal’s king bows out gracefully

Simon Denyer

Jun 16, 2008 01:14 EDT

In the end, it was hard not to feel a little bit sorry for Nepal’s deposed King Gyanendra.

He had seemed an impossibly distant, arrogant figure in the past, but on Wednesday, addressing the press before leaving the palace, in his first and possibly final news conference, he kept his dignity and showed a previously unseen human side.

So it was a pity his swansong — and that of a once-cherished 239-year-old monarchy — was surrounded by chaos, with more than 200 journalists jostling for a view in the palace’s small main hall, constantly pushing and shoving each other.

As Gyanendra read from a prepared text in the palace’s small main hall, two stuffed tigers behind him, people shouted aggressive questions as the former king ploughed on, his amplified voice alternately booming and then dropping out altogether.

He may have spent most of his time in his gaudy pink Kathmandu palace cut off from reality, ultimately unloved and unlistened to, and some may have felt his final farewell was a fitting end.

But for a monarchy traditionally revered as incarnations of Hindu gods, here was a king almost pouring his heart out and the media hardly seemed to be listening.

Gyanendra took over as king in 2001 after the death of his more popular brother and many of his family in a royal massacre, which he said was a time of “overwhelming grief”, and was ousted after a specially elected assembly voted to abolish the monarchy.

Has India got it right on fuel prices?

Simon Denyer

Jun 4, 2008 03:35 EDT

So it’s official. India has finally raised fuel prices, by more than most people expected. A hike in diesel prices in particular is sure to feed through into overall inflation. At the same the government removed the import duty on crude oil.

We’d be keen on your opinion. Has the government got it right?

Despite the price rises, oil companies are still going to be losing huge amounts of money and gas-guzzling cars are still going to be heavily subsidized by ordinary taxpayers. The oil ministry had even argued for steeper price hikes.

Are subsidies really the right way to go in the modern world? Is the government sacrificing good economics on the altar of political populism?

Or should the government have tried harder to protect the poor by keeping fuel prices down despite global inflation in oil? The left says the price rises were avoidable, and the government should instead have cut excise duties more and imposed windfall taxes on private companies.

And is this decision going to have a major impact on the UPA government’s chances of re-election?

India’s Advani needs help on “money matters”

Simon Denyer

Jun 3, 2008 07:36 EDT

India’s 80-year-old opposition leader says he needs help on “money matters”.

Not only does his wife pay all the bills at home, but he asked business leaders on Tuesday for help in drawing up a new economic model which does not ape the West.

He also had some strong words for the Congress-led government, accusing it of failing to control inflation and failing to bridge the gap between the rich and the poor.

When Advani’s own coalition government was in power, it followed pretty similar policies, except with more emphasis on privatisation of state-run companies. But it lost power partly for claiming that India was shining, when poverty was still rampant.

So it’s fair enough to look for economically sustainable ideas to help India’s poor, in fact it is probably essential to address widespread poverty more aggressively.

But is Advani being realistic to suggest there is an alternative to a “Western” development model in the modern world?

And is it right that a man who could be India’s next prime minister so blithely admits to not really understanding economics or money matters?

Is India bending over backwards to please China?

Simon Denyer

Jun 3, 2008 04:26 EDT

India’s opposition Bharatiya Janata Party has accused the government of a “craven” and “slavish” attitude to China.

The BJP and others argue that the coalition government has failed to prevent repeated Chinese incursions along the disputed border, from Ladakh in the northwest to Arunachal Pradesh in the northeast.

And by trying to muzzle the Dalai Lama and close down Delhi during the Olympic torch relay, it has shown weakness, which will only encourage China to throw its weight around more.

There is also concern about the modernisation of the Chinese army, and the steady improvement of road and rail links in Tibet which are altering the military balance of power. Then there is talk of fresh Chinese claims to the northern tip of Sikkim.

“Given the growing perception that the UPA government lacks resolve… it is no surprise that Beijing has put the historically undisputed border with Sikkim back into contestation,” the Indian Express wrote in an editorial. Bharat Bhushan in the Mail Today said India had bent over backwards to China without any apparent dividend, while Brahma Chellaney argues China is trying to tie India down in the Himalayas “in order to avert the rise of a peer rival in Asia”.

But does India have any choice but quiet diplomacy? Should India swallow its pride and keep China happy over the Tibet question, even put up with a bit of border wrangling, and concentrate on the bigger picture?

Trade ties are booming and India stands to gain from a closer relationship with China, after all.

India’s Gujjar mess underlines problem of relying on quotas

Simon Denyer

May 29, 2008 02:21 EDT

There is no doubt that India is a deeply unequal society, that people at the bottom of the pile face discrimination, and struggle for the opportunities they need to raise themselves up. But is the answer caste- or tribe-based quotas in government jobs and universities?

This week, the debate is back in the headlines, as the Gujjar community takes to the streets again, blockading India’s capital to reinforce their demand for more quota-based jobs . Nearly 40 people have been killed in the latest violence, most shot dead by police.

I am not qualified to say whether quotas are right or wrong.

On the one hand, they reinforce caste identity and rivalry and seem to fly in the face of a secular India. On the other, they can be a useful tool in forcing an end to discrimination and giving people a leg up.

But one thing seems clear to me. Relying solely on quotas, or reservations as they are called, as a substitute for real policies to address discrimination and inequality, seems inadequate.

Take the case of the Gujjars.

Already considered a disadvantaged group, the Gujjars want to be reclassified further down the caste and status system so they qualify for more reserved government jobs and university seats. Already classified as an Other Backward Class (OBC), they want Scheduled Tribe (ST) status.

Another Himalayan kingdom tumbles, but will Nepal miss its monarchy?

Simon Denyer

May 28, 2008 04:32 EDT

Another Himalayan kingdom is falling, a chapter closing on an ancient historical tradition. But will the modern system of democracy do a better job?

Sikkim’s monarchs, the Chogyals, retreated into history when India annexed their territory in 1975. Tibet’s “priest-king”, the Dalai Lama, was forced in exile when China invaded his land in the 1950s.

Now, after 239 years of the Shah dynasty, Nepal is set to become a secular republic on Wednesday .

In the Himalayas, only in Bhutan does a monarchy still play a significant role, and even there it voluntarily surrendered power this year to a new democratically elected parliament.

Many of these kings were once revered as incarnations of Buddha or Vishnu, some still are.

But the Himalayan monarchies have come under pressure from he north and south, from their giant neighbours China and India. Pressure has come from below as well, from subjects demanding democracy on the roof the world. One by one, they are succumbing to that pressure.

The Buddhist majority in Bhutan seemed sad to see their king stand aside and democracy enter their largely peaceful land, fearing that conflict and corruption would surely follow.