When it comes to climate change, the environment and other weighty issues, what could the leaders of the world's biggest democracy possibly learn from the rural Indians who cobble together rickety cars out of scrap metal and old bits of wood?

One of India's best known businessmen says the improvised vehicles that carry crops and passengers along dusty village roads show how local people are often the best innovators, coming up with cheap and effective answers to tough problems.

Nandan Nilekani, co-founder of the technology company Infosys, thinks politicians would do well to remember the decentralized philosophy behind the "jugaad". Mechanics with little money and poor access to cheap parts use whatever is at hand to build them: water pumps replace normal engines; wooden blocks stand in for brakes and old planks of wood provide the floor.

"This 'car' is a brilliant improvisation, nailed together from whatever parts rural mechanics can get their hands on," Nilekani writes in a new book about the future of the world's second most populous country, "Imagining India". "Effective, innovative policies will depend on harnessing this ability of people at the local level to take charge and innovate.

"Our environment and energy solutions will have to rope in our tribal and village communities to be truly effective. I believe such approaches are uniquely suited to India, with its untapped pool of local, entrepreneurial and innovative talent."

Nilekani, often called the "Bill Gates of Bangalore", says India has come a long way since the historic days of 1947 when Britain's colonial rule ended. However, it must move further away from centralisation if it is to harness its economic potential.

While Nehru's "paternal, socialist state" that promised public sector wealth creation made sense at the time, few Indians believe in his policies now, Nilekani argues.

It is time, he says, for the country to move even further away from the old idea of "Mother India" looking after its one billion "children".

His book sets out a vision of a more equal and prosperous India where the state views the population as "human capital, not as a liability".

The new India would value entrepreneurs, improve its schools and universities, embrace globalisation and technology and build new infrastructure.  It would also accept English as a "language of aspiration" rather than a colonial relic.

The markets will play a crucial role in changing society, but politicians and the public sector must also do their bit, Nilekani says. Political parties have for too long exploited class, religion, caste or regional differences to make short-term gains at the expense of long-term planning, he adds.

"If you want to go beyond the politics of division to the politics of aspiration it will take some time because you will need a larger middle class," he told Reuters in an interview in London. "Markets and entrepreneurship are very important. They drive innovation, job creation. It is how people's standard of living goes up."

If India adopts the right measures it could see faster economic growth than China within a few years, helped by a huge pool of young working people, he adds.

"India is now going to have its demographic dividend in the next 30 years. China had its demographic dividend over the last 30 years," he told Reuters. "Being the only young country in an ageing world gives India some very special opportunities."

With polls suggesting that no party will secure an outright majority in this month's elections, Nilekani warns that future could be rocky.

"This election is momentous because there is no clear winner, no party that has a clear advantage," he says. "There is a risk of having instability."

However, like the humble "jugaad", the sheer scale of the election process and the effort that has gone into getting 700 million people to vote, is an immense source of pride for Nilekani.

"It is an extraordinarily uplifting moment," he says.

Democracy is all about choice and there have been calls to introduce a “none of the above” option in electronic voting machines so that guardians of the election process in the world’s largest democracy can reject candidates who don’t pass muster.

And if this is likely to get sucked into political wrangling - the fate of most pertinent issues in India - some say the Election Commission (EC), political activists and those urging the “sleeping population to wake up and vote” should  advertise the virtues of Rule 49-O of the Conduct of Elections Rules, which allows you to register your disapproval.

A peek into the election rulebook reveals the following about 49-O: “Elector deciding not to vote - If an elector, after his electoral roll number has been duly entered in the register of voters in Form-17A and has put his signature or thumb impression thereon as required under sub-rule (1) of rule 49L, decided not to record his vote, a remark to this effect shall be made against the said entry in Form 17A by the presiding officer and the signature or thumb impression of the elector shall be obtained against such remark.”

The issue is the subject of debate on several websites and blogs.

Another website is running a signature campaign urging people to vote in favour of a “no vote” option.

Reports say the EC is in favour of such a provision, but is not empowered to implement it. The authority lies with the Centre which must amend the Representation of the People Act for the change to be incorporated.

The country began voting in the first stage of a staggered general election on Thursday. The outcome of the month-long five-stage poll, which will see hundreds of candidates in the fray for 543 Lok Sabha seats, will be known on May 16.

Polls indicate the ruling Congress party is most likely to return to power, but this time heading a weaker coalition.

The Indian electorate seldom has a say in a political party’s choice of a local representative. Reports say around a quarter of the elected Lok Sabha MPs had criminal cases pending against them in 2004.

More than half of the cases were for serious offences including murder, rape and large-scale corruption.

A majority of these leaders are contesting the elections this time and many say it will only be fair if discerning citizens, queuing up outside the over 800,000 makeshift polling booths, are given a chance to say “No, I will not vote”.

The Congress party has bought the rights to “Jai Ho”, the Oscar-winning song from “Slumdog Millionaire”, to use for its election campaign.

Although popular Bollywood song tunes have always been used after being set to new lyrics for canvassing votes, acquiring the rights to a song for election campaigning is a possible first.

Congress leaders said the song, whose title is Hindi for “Let There be Victory,” will be played during rallies in rural towns, villages and cities. But why did the party go so far as to get the song rights?

Congress spokesman Abhishek Manu Singhvi cited the Oscar wins as a result of good governance and inclusive democracy under UPA rule.

Popular culture in India has politics, movies, cricket and religion as predominant ingredients and elections are a mix of all these.

The list of movie stars who have contested and won elections is a long one.

Occasionally a politician also forays into acting — like communist party leader Brinda Karat in the film “Amu”.

Sports and politics also mix well. Cricketers like Vinod Kambli and footballer I.M.Vijayan have acted in films. Former India player Kirti Azad has contested elections while former cricket captain Mohammed Azharuddin recently joined the Congress.

But the link between movies and politics is even stronger.

A simple Google search throws up various theories that try to explain why popularity on the screen transforms into votes in India.

Identifying oneself as a fan of a movie star in India is seen as assertion of one’s identity, which may be regional, linguistic or along caste lines.

Thus Indian fans are said to relate to their favourite stars at a very personal level.

The popularity of religious belief in ‘darshan’ or ‘seeing’ the deity and be ‘seen’ by her is said to have parallels with watching cinema and the way movie stars are perceived by people.

The tradition of worshipping people, as in saints and teachers, is also linked to this. Indian movie stars have been worshipped in temples in some cases.

The sheer number of films produced in India and the fact that they are affordable also ensures that the stars have wide recognition.

But though cinema is popular all over India, it is only in southern India that movie stars have had the most success as popular politicians. Movies and politics have the strongest links there.

There is no clear explanation as to why?

The “Jai Ho” song is in Hindi, a language the southern Indian electorate has an uneasy relationship with.

But will that limit its electoral appeal?

After India last held state elections in Jammu and Kashmir in 2002, the Kashmir Valley witnessed a period of relative peace only to see it shattered when plans to give land to Hindu pilgrims triggered the biggest protests since the Kashmir separatist revolt erupted in 1989.

The latest elections - which produced a turnout of more than 60 percent despite a boycott call by separatists and ushered in a new state government led by Omar Abdullah - have provided a second chance to change the mood in the volatile Kashmir Valley. But do India and Pakistan, and the Kashmiris themselves, have the ability to turn this second chance into a real opportunity for peace?

Despite the outrage over the Mumbai attacks, blamed by India on Pakistan-based militants, there are some promising signs. The elections were remarkable for the fact that armed separatists based in Pakistani-held Kashmir made no attempt to disrupt the campaign, as they did during the previous polls in 2002. If Indian assertions are correct that the Pakistani security establishment controls the level of armed separatist activity in Kashmir, then the absence of violence would not have been possible without the active cooperation of Pakistan - a factor acknowledged by The Hindu in an editorial. 

Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari has spoken repeatedly of the need to make peace with India, including over Kashmir (as discussed here, here, here and here) and despite widespread scepticism in India that his views are shared by the powerful Pakistan Army, Pakistan does seem to have delivered in keeping the militants at bay during the elections.

Meanwhile trade between the Indian and Pakistan-held parts of the divided former kingdom of Jammu and Kashmir has continued even through the heights of the post-Mumbai tensions. 

And perhaps one of the more promising signs is that Indian newspaper columnists have been careful on the whole to avoid any hint of triumphalism in proclaiming the high turnout an endorsement of Indian rule, suggesting that New Delhi may have learned the lessons of last year's land protests - that peace in Kashmir cannot be taken for granted.

Instead columnists stress the long road ahead in bringing any kind of normality to the state.  (The political parties which fought in the elections made a point of trying to delink Kashmir's status from the polls, running their campaigns instead on issues of governance.)

In the Hindustan Times, columnist Prem Shankar Jha analyses the voting patterns across the state and concludes that behind the overall high turnout there were still strong pockets of resistance, particularly in the Kashmiri capital Srinagar. "The voting pattern shows that ‘separatism’ has not died, but become more localised," he writes. "While the government has been congratulating itself in the jump in the turnout in Srinagar from barely 5 per cent in 2002 to 20 per cent this year, it has  chosen to forget that in a truly free and contested election, such as that of 1983, the turnout in the city was over 80 per cent," he adds. "The abstention is significant because except in China nearly every successful rebellion has begun in the cities and has been led by precisely the kind of people who remain alienated today."

Writing in Pakistan's Dawn newspaper, Indian journalist Kuldip Nayar says the elections offer a new opportunity to hammer out a solution in Kashmir which is acceptable to India, Pakistan and Kashmir.  However, he adds that "New Delhi would be deluding itself if it believes in the aftermath of the elections that it can arrive at a settlement without the separatists," and urges both India and Pakistan to provide greater autonomy to the parts of the former kingdom under their control. "Without doubt, the Kashmiris want to have an identity of their own," he says.

So what are the pitfalls ahead?

The Arab News highlights the risk of communal discord following a strong showing in the elections by the hardline Bharatiya janata Party (BJP) in Jammu, the Hindu-dominated part of the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir.  Any increase in Hindu-Muslim tensions would provide fresh fuel to the militants, just as support for the armed separatist movement appeared to be waning, it said. "The lesson for India — and Pakistan — surely has to be that Kashmir is put into cold storage as an issue on which they are prepared to fight a war. The minute they commit themselves to that, the militants have lost their greatest weapon. "

The Economist calls the elections "a good vote in the angry valley"  but warns that India should not be lulled into thinking that Kashmiris had been won over to Indian rule. "Many Kashmiris, as the recent protests served to re-emphasise, are deeply unhappy to be in India," it said.

That view is echoed by the BBC's Andrew Whitehead, who also writes that the new government ushered in by the elections will find it hard to convince Kashmiris that their grievances can be addressed through local politics until relations between India and Pakistan are repaired following the Mumbai attacks. 

Kashmir has always been unpredictable, and remains a tinderbox vulnerable to any sparks coming from inside or outside the Valley. The Indian government's long-awaited decision on whether to carry out the death sentence of Mohammad Afzal Guru, a Kashmiri convicted of involvement in an attack on the Indian parliament in December 2001, could be one of those sparks.  Many Kashmiris believe he was wrongly convicted.

And if anyone needs a reminder of the anger bubbling below the surface in India's only Muslim-majority state, they need look no further than Friday's protests against Israeli strikes on Gaza. At least 50 people were injured when police in Srinagar fired teargas to disperse protesters.

(Photos: National Conference leader Omar Abdullah waves to supporters/Fayaz Kabli

Kashmiris protest in Srinagar against Israeli strikes on Gaza/Fayaz Kabli)

Will a Dalit, or “untouchable” become India’s Obama? That is the question being posed by some commentators in the India press after the United States elected their first black president.

One Dalit woman, the chief minister of Uttar Pradesh known as Mayawati, is the first person to come to mind. Her astonishing rise from Dalit teacher to head of India’s most populous state has led to speculation she could be a prime ministerial candidate in 2009.

For an interesting article on the subject, read “Waiting for India’s Obama” by T.K Arun.

Unlike the United States, which directly elects a president, Mayawati could win power in parliamentary system through negotiations between India’s political parties after the general elections, due by May.

There is evidence her Dalit-based party could become the third biggest party in the election, becoming a

possible kingmaker.

In one sense Mayawati could represent an even greater revolution than Obama in a country where Dalits have been oppressed for centuries and who still suffer the kind of discrimination that reminds oneself of the United States’ Deep South in the 1950s.

On the other hand, as some commentators point out, Mayawati parades her caste to win over Dalits. Obama reached out across the race spectrum and did not use his colour. He campaigned mostly on policy. Maywati has made headlines as much for allegations of corruption and excess — such as erecting statues in her honour — as original policy ideas.

I went to Mayawati’s birthday party in Lucknow this year. There, she had the various top public figures, from police chiefs and civil servants and politicians, finger feed her with cake. Most of them were upper caste.

Will she be asking the same of Sonia Gandhi in New Delhi after the general elections?

Like much of the world waiting to find out who leads the United States as its president for the next four years, India too looks askance at the mother of all elections.

While some believe India-U.S. relations have evolved to a strategic level where it does not matter who is at the helm of affairs, a debate rages on whether Obama or McCain will be good for the South Asia region, and India in specific.

As in the U.S., in India the balance seems to tilt in favour of Obama. His backers say he will be a welcome change from the stifling neoconservatism of the Bush administration and its heavy-breathing belligerence.

The Times of India newspaper says: “…a McCain win will result in a broad continuation of Bush administration policies…Beyond that, US-India ties, at least from Washington’s perspective, would continue to be largely security driven, subject to conservative impulses arising from fears of an extremist Islamist agenda to India’s west and an expanding Chinese influence everywhere.

“Obama on the other hand promises to be different, he will bring in fresh informed change to the region.”

Obama’s supporters say his political vision is evolved from a more composite understanding of the world, and he is more inclined to engage diplomatically with the Islamic world. This is good for India. The Republicans, on the other hand, are known backers of a militarized Pakistan and historically played the security card in South Asia according to their needs.

But when it comes to key issues such as immigration and outsourcing, McCain seems to score with India.

Obama has spoken of ending tax breaks for companies that ship US jobs overseas - a threat he may not follow through since outsourcing remains a key cost benefit tool for American corporations. But Obama’s supporters say he will be more sympathetic to Indian and other Asian migrants in high professions because he is committed to fairness and to principles of racial diversity.

Not all agree. “Yes, McCain might be more inclined to attack Iran. By the same measure, he would also be more inclined to pressure Pakistan to act on terror by providing a stick as well as a carrot,” writes analyst Dweep Chanana.

“On the economy, Republican presidents have historically been far more supportive of higher work permit quotas for Indian workers, and push more for free trade.”

Obama has voted to reduce the number of H1B visas issued to foreign workers. McCain is said to favour more H1B visas.

Clearly, both have things to offer India. But how wise is predicting U.S. policies for any one particular country when what Obama or McCain will eventually do is, what they perceive is, good for the American people?

Security was tight at the entrance to Gate No. 7 of the Jama Masjid in Old Delhi, a 17th century mosque built by Mughal kings, and the venue on Tuesday for a gathering of Muslim leaders from across the country to debate the persecution of Muslims.

Police shooed away fruit vendors and cycle rickshaws spilling over from the crowded market nearby, while others stood around the metal detectors at the entrance while their colleagues cased out the giant white shamiana inside with sniffer dogs under the slowly revolving ceiling fans.

 A full half hour after the scheduled time, when only the first few rows of seats were occupied, Maulana Naksh Bandi of the Jama Masjid began the proceedings, inviting various leaders to the dais, and declaring in Urdu: “there is no law, there is no justice for us. It is the rule of the jungle.”

Pausing to take a call on his mobile, and to recognise leaders who slowly filed in, some helped by their assistants, the Maulana said that staying silent would only lead to a more terrible future for Muslims in the country.

Bombings by suspected Islamist militants have killed hundreds of people in recent months, and Muslim leaders accuse the police of indiscriminate arrests of young Muslim men who have been labelled as terrorists and paraded before the media.

Next came Maulana Syed Ahmed Bukhari, influential leader of the Jama Masjid mosque, the largest in north India, who said Muslims needed to draw up a blueprint to deal with the circumstances, with even such practical solutions as legal help
for those being held by the police.

His speech, also in Urdu, was by turn fiery and angry, and at all times impassioned, its rhythym broken only by latecomers whom he acknowledged, and frequent shouts of “Allah-O-Akbar” (God is Great) among the audience who now filled all the seats.

I was struck by the anger felt among the listeners, the quieter ones of whom nodded in assent and said “beshak” (certainly); it was another sign of how communal politics was growing in India and of how Muslims are fighting to be heard.

As the sun travelled higher, glasses of cold water were passed around, but there was no cooling the Maulana, who accused the major political parties of trying to curry favour with the Muslims ahead of the 2009 election.

But Muslim leaders including the Maulana were equally political, said Seema Desai, an analyst at consultancy Eurasia Group in London: “Muslim leaders will be heard more than might have been the case in the run up to the national elections,” she said.

“But as long as Indian political parties think along communal lines its hard to see how long lasting solutions will be found.”   
     

Chiranjeevi, 53, is in good company. M.G. Ramachandran, N.T. Rama Rao, J. Jayalalithaa and M. Karunanidhi had all successfully made the leap from silver screen to political stage.

And with assembly elections in Andhra Pradesh looming in 2009, I wouldn’t be too surprised to see Chiranjeevi seated on the chief minister’s chair.

He’s surely got mass appeal. Local television broadcast footage of tens of thousands of supporters hailing the actor at his party’s launch in the temple town of Tirupati.

That sight alone would have caused heartburn to rival politicians, left praying that those numbers won’t actually translate into votes.

South India, with the exception of Kerala, has always been kind to its film stars — catapulting them with ease into the political sphere. Chiranjeevi could also use hordes of hero-worshipping fans to his advantage.

I am not saying that actors make better politicians. But they do have history on their side. At least in south India.

I wonder what will happen if reigning Tamil superstar Rajnikanth throws his hat into the ring.

Much as he tries astrologer Rajan Chopra can’t keep the pride out of his voice as he speaks to me for the second time in 24 hours.

It’s victory march at 7 Race Course Road after Prime Minister Manmohan Singh wins a closely-fought vote of confidence 275 to 256 in parliament and the temptation for Chopra to say “I told you so” is overwhelming. But Chopra, a political and corporate astrologer who predicted yesterday that the government would win the trust vote, says “it’s a victory for astrologers as well”.

If popular predictions are anything to go by then stargazers say the strong Saturn in Congress President Gandhi’s astrological chart is to be thanked for the government’s victory and the Congress party will be wise to look heaven wards for further guidance before general elections next year.

“As I have said before, Samajwadi Party general secretary Amar Singh will play a very crucial role now, along with party leader Mulayam Singh Yadav,” Chopra says. “I am basing my prediction on three things - the chart of the Congress party, that of opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and of Sonia Gandhi.”

Don’t the stars of Manmohan Singh count for anything? His answer confirms something that non-stargazers suspected all along. “Gandhi is the main force behind him.”

Kanpur-based astrologer Ramesh Chintak who strongly believes there is no branch of astrology that can help predict the future of a political party or outfit, says Saturn is strong in Gandhi’s stars which may have led to Tuesday’s turn of events.

However, he cautions that astrological predictions of any single individual cannot be trusted to foretell the fortunes of the party as a whole. He prefers rather to strengthen his prediction with safer bets.

“I heard the speeches made by (leader of opposition) L K Advani in parliament and I think he indicated even then that the opposition may not in the end win the motion. You also have to take into account the general word on the streets that the government is likely to win the vote,” he says.

When I tell Chopra that India’s Science and Rationalists Association dismisses astrology as superstition, he assures me that he is “a scientific astrologer and a paramedic man on top of that”.

Chennai-based astrologer K.B. Gopalakrishnan was quoted on websites with astrological charts to bolster his claim that Manmohan Singh was safe on the trust vote. Although astrologer M N Kedar, a member of the Indian Council of Astrological Sciences, strongly predicted that the planetary position was not in favour of the government.