India Insight

(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not necessarily of Thomson Reuters)

Finance Minister P. Chidambaram’s drive to shore up government coffers is not just giving businessmen sleepless nights.

Just when reporters were taking a breather after filing stories based on inflation data on Thursday, the finance ministry sent them text messages about a press briefing. The recipients were supposed to rush to Chidambaram’s office in 15 minutes to cover what appeared to be a major policy announcement. After all, the finance minister doesn’t call on such short notice for chitchat.

As they raced through Delhi traffic and crossed the security cordon, many journalists were already thinking of the headlines they would write after the press briefing. With barely two weeks to go before the financial year ends, Chidambaram is racing to meet fiscal targets that will affect the country’s deficit, debt rating and more. Any slip would dent his credibility – and he is determined to collect every penny.

Thousands of tax notices are dispatched every week to scores of defaulters in a country of 1.2 billion people in which less than 3 percent of the population pays tax. Chidambaram estimates 73,388 taxpayers have defaulted on such payments, costing the government nearly 39 billion rupees ($719 million) in the current financial year.

The countdown has begun for the biggest business and economic event of the year, the release of India’s annual budget at the end of February, and Finance Minister P. Chidambaram has a tough job on his hands. With general elections a year away, he must please voters, boost growth and control deficits.

In the last five years, the finance minister has always relaxed income tax slabs — by either increasing the basic exemption limit or widening the tax slabs. As far as markets go, the 2009 budget day was the worst for stocks as the index fell around 950 points during trade. However, the focus has always been on the government’s fiscal deficit targets, which have hovered around the 5 percent mark in recent years.

As India’s economy battles slowing growth, investors will take cues from Chidambaram’s plans to rein in spending and boost growth. Here’s a look at budgets between 2008 and 2012 — the hits, the misses and how they affected the common man.

The usually crisp and precise P. Chidambaram was uncharacteristically vague on Monday while announcing the government’s fiscal consolidation plan. While pledging to bring the fiscal deficit down to 3 percent in 2016-17 from around 5.3 this fiscal, the Harvard-educated minister gave no details on how the government would achieve this feat.

Perhaps the finance minister should remember that uncertainty and lack of clarity can spook markets and investors. We saw that when the government took months to clarify the controversial GAAR norms which made foreign investors jittery.

Chidambaram’s announcement is unlikely to impress investors, rating agencies and lenders like the IMF, who want the government to slash subsidies and cut spending.