Rebel violence in Indian Kashmir has fallen to its lowest level since an insurgency began nearly two decades ago.

But the central government has banned pre-paid mobile connections in the strife-torn state, leaving nearly three million subscribers disconnected over security concerns.

The ban, which comes days after Prime Minister Manmohan Singh offered fresh talks with Kashmiris, has annoyed local residents while troops deployed in the state are also distressed over getting disconnected from their families.

The ban also put around 20,000 youths in danger of finding themselves without a job.

Is the ban justified at a time when rebel violence is at its lowest and New Delhi is trying to win the hearts and minds of Kashmiris?

The ban follows reports that neither vendors nor service providers carry out thorough identity checks on buyers when issuing a connection.

Until five years ago, intelligence officials resisted attempts by the central government to lift a ban on mobile phone services in the region, fearing they could aid militants in planning attacks.

New Delhi allowed mobile phone services in Kashmir in 2003, eight years after the rest of India, now the world’s fastest-growing market for cellular services.

But security forces say troops have eliminated many militants in Kashmir by tracking their mobile phones and tapping conversations.

The government of Jammu and Kashmir, India’s only Muslim-majority state, said it would take up the issue of banning pre-paid connections with New Delhi to ensure that genuine users do not suffer and security is also not compromised.

“It is not a positive development,” a state government spokesman said.

Will the ban on pre-paid mobile phone connections in Kashmir further alienate people?

In response to recent reports that two Chinese helicopters intruded into Indian territory in Leh in Jammu and Kashmir, Army Chief Deepak Kapoor said he did get reports of Chinese intrusion but “this is not a new thing.”

“I want to tell you that the press sometimes hypes this but the numbers of intrusions which have taken place this year are on the same level as last year,” Kapoor said.

Soon after that the Indian media reported that Chinese soldiers had crossed the border in Ladakh last week and painted some rocks red.

Foreign Minister S.M. Krishna said, “Let me go on record to say that border with China has been one of the most peaceful boundaries that we have had as compared to other boundary lines with other countries.”

Former Air Force Chief Fali Homi Major and Navy Chief Sureesh Mehta have repeatedly warned that China is a danger to India, and the hawks in the Indian security establishment fear that the Chinese had a strategic plan of encircling India.

Around the time India and China were holding the 13th round of their border talks in August, an article had appeared in China titled “If China takes a little action, the so-called Great Indian Federation can be broken up”.

The article primarily focussed on how China can split India and break it up into 20-30 states like the European Union.

Given this context, many seem to think Indian officials and ministers could be playing down any potential threat from China.

So what do you think is India’s policy towards China? What does India seek to achieve by playing down these intrusions?

Brahma Chellaney, former adviser to India’s National Security Advisory Board, said, “The atmosphere has deteriorated in the recent months, plus there’s been escalation of tensions along the Himalayan border.”

What should be India’s stand on these constant intrusions in the name of a differently perceived Line of Actual Control?

In a Wall Street Journal report, India’s former national security advisor Brajesh Mishra said, “The Chinese must know that if they create something on border there would be an instant reaction far beyond what happened in 1962.”

Many analysts on the other hand believe that India is uncertain about how to handle these intrusions and deal with Beijing’s ‘Rising China’ strategy.

“India is clueless on how to deal with China’s growing belligerence, so it attempts to play down an admitted pattern of growing Chinese incursions.” said Chellaney.

Should India fall back on the U.S. to checkmate any future designs of China to break up India? Or should India focus on trying to find a solution to the long standing border dispute with China so that it can concentrate on consolidating its strategic interests in the region and beyond?

Its striking beauty is not the only thing that hits you when you visit Kashmir valley.

Though it was the kind of paradise I had imagined, I didn’t know there would be so many shanty towns set in such picturesque locales.

As I travelled through Kashmir, the breathtaking views did make me breathless but so did the smoke and dust. 

An article by Shakil Ahmad Romshoo, Associate Professor with Kashmir University, says the valley has been experiencing erratic snowfall and hotter summers for the last decade or so.

A report on ‘Climate Change in Kashmir’ by ActionAid, an international anti-poverty agency, says the Pampore-Khrew belt, famous for its saffron production, has been witnessing an unusual phenomenon over the last two decades — receiving the least snowfall in Kashmir.

The report also said locals attributed this phenomenon to industrial units which have come up in the area since 1982.

Locals from the Valley say that it’s unusually hot this year.

Many believe it is the wrath of God for the evils in society. Special prayers are being offered in mosques to deal with the changing phenomena.

The ActionAid report says, “Temperature on an average in Kashmir region has shown a rise of 1.45 Celsius while in Jammu region the rise is 2.32 Celsius. The Indian Meteorological Department’s monitoring reveals that temperatures are increasing in both Jammu and Kashmir valley, with significant increase in maximum temperature of 0.05 degrees Celsius per year.”

Romshoo says there are a number of indicators of climate change discernible in the Kashmir valley.

“Glaciers are receding, scanty and erratic snow fall, change of growing season, shifting of vegetation from lower to higher altitudes, shrinking/loss of wetlands, etc,” he said.

“Mountainous regions are generally more susceptible to the climate change impacts and climate change is going to affect every aspect of the environment, social and economics systems.”

Enviroment Minister Jairam Ramesh says there is no conclusive scientific evidence that climate change is causing glaciers to recede.

Ramesh says some glaciers like the Siachen are advancing and there needs to be more study done on this subject.

Though climate change is caused by natural influences as well, Romshoo attributes it to more use of fossil fuels, burning of forests, reckless industrialization and anti-environmental lifestyles.

The ActionAid report also mentions the movement of heavy military vehicles as one of the reasons for excess pollution in the Valley.

It says convoys and heavy military vehicles produce a high level of greenhouse gases and are out of the purview of the law enforcing agencies in pollution control.

Can the government do something about the reduction of greenhouse gases in the Valley? Will education and awareness among locals and tourists help slow climate change?

Separatist violence in Kashmir has fallen to its lowest level since an anti-India insurgency began nearly two decades ago.

However, people are still killed in daily firefights and occasional attacks by suspected militants, mostly in rural and mountainous areas.

Is Pakistan still aiding militants fighting Indian troops in Kashmir, despite Islamabad’s assurances and a slow-moving peace process between New Delhi and Islamabad?

Senior Indian security officials say Pakistan is still arming, training and sending militants to the disputed Kashmir region, making it difficult to end violence in the war-weary region.

“In this situation we should not expect that terrorism can be finished,” said Kuldeep Khuda, police chief of Jammu and Kashmir state - arguably the most difficult policing job in the country.

But Pakistan has consistently denied its involvement in abetting Kashmir militancy that has killed tens of thousands of people across the scenic region since 1989, has left nothing untouched and has brought untold misery to a once carefree society.

Kashmiri residents and local leaders, both pro-India and separatists, attribute the fall of violence involving troops and Muslim militants to the India-Pakistan peace process which started in early 2004 following a ceasefire between two armies on the highly militarised Line of Control, which divides Kashmir between the two.

But a sort of non-violent struggle in the form of near daily street protests could be potentially more challenging to New Delhi than militancy and could provide fertile ground for a new anti-India insurgency.

A columnist putting the Kashmir question in the context of an emerging cold war in the region predicts renewed violence in Kashmir.

“A new phase of deadly militancy is most likely to hit Kashmir again. This is not to press the panic button but to understand the outcome of fresh geopolitics in South and West Asia,” Syed Tassadque Hussain wrote in the daily newspaper Rising Kashmir.

Is Kashmir headed toward renewed violence, even as Pakistan says it is cracking down on militant groups it has backed in the past to fight Indian troops in Kashmir?

Is India pushing the ordinary Kashmiri people further away by enforcing regular curfews, putting most of their separatist leaders under house arrest and denying them religious freedom by banning Friday prayers in Kashmir’s Jamia Masjid (grand mosque) on a regular basis to avoid violence?

I travelled to Srinagar, the summer capital of India’s troubled state of Jammu and Kashmir this week, and saw how people were tired of violence and wanted peace and dignity in the region.

Many told me how they felt unhappy each time an incident of violence in a remote corner of the city would scare authorities into shutting down the city and forced them to stay indoors, many without any provisions.

The majority of people in Kashmir appear tired of the 20-year-old violence, involving militants and Indian troops, which has declined significantly — with almost no major attacks in the main city of Srinagar for more than a year now.

Having tasted peace for a while now, people in Srinagar want to spend time near the Dal Lake or travel to a picturesque location with their families, instead of being locked up in their homes.

Industry heads and businessmen I spoke to recollect their endless meetings with Indian ministers, requesting them to do more to restore confidence of potential investors to boost the handicraft, horticulture and tourism sectors.

Many bookshop owners, fruit sellers and students I talked to want the All Parties Hurriyat (Freedom) Conference, the main separatist alliance in the disputed region, to hold talks with the government.

Some separatist leaders admit that talks can help their cause.

“With militancy down, this is the perfect opportunity for talks and the onus is on India now to take advantage and resolve the Kashmir dispute once and for all,” Hurriyat chairman Mirwaiz Umar Farooq told Reuters.

Could this be the right time to hold talks with the separatists to resolve the Kashmir crisis? And do Indian authorities agree?

The peacetime activities of an armed force have a bearing on its wartime capabilities and its relations with the civil society.

Although it has been the stated government policy for at least a decade to use the defence forces as sparingly as possible the Indian army has been continually engaged in counter-insurgency operations in Jammu and Kashmir and the northeast.

“Excessive and continuous involvement of the Army for internal security is not good, neither for the Army nor for the nation,” former army chief Ved Prakash Malik said four years ago.

“Most of the states have neglected their armed police,” he said.

When the al Qaeda recently threatened India with more Mumbai-like attacks, the first response came from Defence Minister A.K. Antony.

“Our army is ready to face any threat from anywhere,” he said.

Internal security is the responsibility of the Home ministry and the police force.

“There is an increasing trend to rely on the army for internal security,” strategic affairs expert Jasjeet Singh told Reuters.

“We have got into the habit that the moment there is the slightest disturbance the administrator picks up the phone and calls for the army.”

Defence analyst Gurmeet Kanwal said “such operations undoubtedly stretch the army’s budget and affect its modernisation programme.”

They also interfere with the training of the armed forces for conventional warfare, he said.

Was it then the defence minister’s remit to respond to that threat?

The army’s apolitical stance makes it something of an exception in South Asia.

However, concerns had been raised after the Malegaon blasts case where a serving army officer has been charge sheeted.

Does the army’s involvement in internal security duties make it vulnerable to politicisation?

Singh thinks that Malegaon is an aberration but “what is aberration today in twenty years will be regular.”

He suggests reforming the training and recruitment of police so it can tackle internal security challenges on its own.

Police being a state subject under the Indian constitution, personnel are recruited locally and therefore are more sensitive to local sentiments.  This makes the police more conducive to handling internal security duties provided it has the capacity.

Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Omar Abdullah favours the strategy of letting the local police maintain law and order in the state.

Should that be a nationwide initiative?

As the pro-India National Conference appeared set to emerge as the single largest party in Jammu and Kashmir assembly elections, the writing on the wall is a tad difficult to miss.

Fed up of living under the constant shadow of violence in a state divided under religious lines, Kashmiri voters surprised seasoned political pundits by turning up in large numbers to cast their ballots.

They defied calls of poll boycott from Muslim separatists and belied fears of violence in the wake of the bitter Amarnath Yatra land row that led to the fall of the Congress-PDP coalition government and imposition of central rule.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has called the high voter turnout a “vote for democracy” and Congress President Sonia Gandhi has said this should be a message for “our neighbours” (about what the people of Kashmir want).

Whether it is their desire for better governance and development first and the issue of autonomy later, the Jammu and Kashmir voters have set the ball rolling on the counting day in many ways.

Conducted in seven phases, the elections this time came on the heels of agitation over the Kashmir government’s decision to give forest land to the trust that runs Amarnath, a cave shrine visited by Hindu pilgrims.

This enraged many Muslims.

The government then backed down on its decision, which in turn angered many Hindus in Jammu, the winter capital of the region.

The deep divisions that surfaced and the polarized electorate seems to have helped the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), a party that has traditionally struggled to make its presence felt in the state. The BJP won 11 seats from Jammu, a gain of 10 seats from 2002.

Both the National Conference and the People’s Democratic Party have done well in the valley.

The National Conference has kept the doors open for a possible alliance with Congress to make the half-way mark in the 87-member assembly.

But such an alliance will not come without its customary wariness given the history of their political tie-ups in the late 70s and 80s, most of which were followed by periods of Governor’s rule in the troubled state.

It remains to be seen whether the NC and Congress take advantage of the lull in overall violence in the state and live up to voters’ expectations of giving more weightage to development issues.

Or will they get cowed down by separatists looking to regain their foothold in the region?