India Insight

Markets this quarter: Sensex gains 5.7 percent, L&T surges 19 percent

By Aditya Kalra and Sankalp Phartiyal

Indian shares posted record highs in March as strong foreign buying sent blue-chip stocks such as Larsen & Toubro higher and boosted overall investor sentiment ahead of a general election.

Provisional data showed foreign investors bought shares worth more than $3 billion in March, pushing the BSE Sensex to a life high of 22,467.21 points on the last trading day of the quarter. While the index rose 6 percent during the month, it rose 5.7 percent in the Jan-March period.

Markets rallied on hopes that the main opposition Bharatiya Janata Party, perceived to be more business -friendly, would emerge as a winner in the general election, while hopes of a recovery in the domestic economy also aided sentiment.

The rupee also gained during the period and posted its best quarter since Sept. 2012. In March, the Indian unit also breached the 60/dollar mark for the first time in eight months.

Market participants would focus on the Reserve Bank of India monetary policy review on Tuesday, in which the central bank is expected to keep its key interest rate steady at 8 percent. February wholesale price inflation has slowed to below 5 percent and retail price rises have eased to a 25-month low.

Markets this week: M&M, GAIL top Sensex losers

By Sankalp Phartiyal and Ankush Arora

India’s benchmark indexes ended lower this week after scaling fresh peaks on Tuesday. The Sensex ended the week down 0.26 percent in its second consecutive week of falls. Indian markets were shut on Monday for a public holiday.

While strong buying by foreign investors bolstered blue chips, profit-booking and worries U.S. interest rates would rise sooner than expected kept shares under pressure.

On Tuesday, Goldman Sachs upgraded Indian shares to “overweight” from “marketweight” and raised its target on the Nifty to 7,600, citing lower external vulnerabilities, and chances of gains ahead of general elections.

Markets this week: Infosys, Sesa Sterlite top Sensex losers

The BSE Sensex closed in the red twice this week, eventually ending with losses of 0.5 percent. The week began with the benchmark index touching an all-time high of 22,023.98 points in trade on Monday, aided by strong foreign buying.

Shares retreated from record highs as investors booked profits and by Friday, some caution was setting in about the pace of recent gains.

Key economic data released this week showed prices cooling as wholesale and consumer inflation eased and industrial output rose slightly, raising hopes that the Reserve Bank of India would leave its key interest rate unchanged at its policy meet in April.

Markets this week: BHEL, TCS top Sensex losers

By Sankalp Phartiyal and Ankush Arora

The BSE Sensex ended down 0.7 percent in what was a slow week for Indian shares. The week began with the benchmark index sliding 1.5 percent on Monday as foreign institutional investors (FIIs) continued to sell as part of a slump in emerging markets.

Investor sentiment remained subdued despite a survey on Monday showing that Indian factories started 2014 on a high note, with manufacturing activity growing at its fastest pace in nearly a year as domestic and overseas orders increased.

The remaining four sessions saw the Sensex ending marginally in the green. The benchmark is, however, down 3.7 percent so far this year.

Sensex performers in 2013: TCS surges 73 percent, Sun Pharma gains 54 percent

By Aditya Karla and Sankalp Phartiyal

The BSE Sensex ended 2013 with gains of 9 percent after hitting life highs during the year. The benchmark index touched an all-time high of 21,483.74 on Dec. 9 after falling to a 2013 low of 17,448.71 in August.

Foreign inflows boosted sentiment on the street even as concerns about a slowing economy and high inflation weighed. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) bought a net $20.1 billion worth of Indian shares in the year. FIIs had bought $24.5 billion worth of stocks in 2012.

The sharp fall in the rupee and recovering U.S and European economies boosted export-driven sectors, helping shares in many IT and pharma companies rank among the top Sensex performers.

Markets this week: Sensex falls 1.3 percent, BHEL slumps nearly 10 percent

By Ankush Arora and Aditya Kalra

The BSE Sensex fell 1.3 percent in the week ending Dec. 13 after high retail inflation raised fears of a rate hike. Eight of 10 analysts in a poll on Friday said they expected the central bank to raise the repo rate by 25 basis points to try and tame stubbornly high inflation.

Before falling for four consecutive sessions from Tuesday, markets touched life highs on Monday. The BSE Sensex touched 21483.74 after sentiment on the street was boosted by the Bharatiya Janata Party’s win in three of five state elections.

However, profit-taking and the cautious outlook of investors before Thursday’s inflation data pushed shares lower, with the Sensex registering its worst weekly performance in nearly a month.

Markets this week: Sensex gains 1 percent, Tata Power surges over 10 percent

By Ankush Arora and Aditya Kalra

The BSE Sensex ended with gains of 1 percent in the week ending Dec. 6, as investor sentiment was boosted after exit polls indicated the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), seen by many as being more business-friendly, will win four of the five state elections conducted recently.

State elections are seen as a semi-final before the national polls next year. Elections are the key theme for the first half of 2014 and the recent rally in the stock market implies that a BJP government is no longer viewed as a low-probability scenario, UBS said this week. The investment bank has set a 2014 target for Nifty at 6,900.

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) inflows for the year have crossed 1 trillion rupees, regulatory and exchange data showed. They have made net purchases of around $18 billion so far this year, Deutsche Bank figures show.

Sesa Sterlite, Bajaj Auto top Sensex losers this week

The BSE Sensex posted a third consecutive weekly fall, closing nearly 1 percent lower amid persisting worries over the slowdown in foreign investors’ buying into Indian shares.

Data shows FIIs sold shares worth $9.5 million on Thursday, snapping a 32-day buying streak as minutes from the last U.S. Federal Reserve meeting showed a decision on tapering its bond-buying programme may be taken at one of its next few meetings.

In the coming week, investors will keep an eye on July-September GDP data and fiscal deficit numbers for the April-October period. Here are the top Sensex losers and gainers of the week:

Markets this week: Sensex loses 2.7 percent, SBI falls 7.5 percent

Hurt by profit-taking in blue chips, the BSE Sensex posted its worst weekly decline since August as it lost 2.7 percent in a holiday-truncated week.

On Thursday, shares were hurt after ratings agency Standard & Poor’s said it will review the rating of Asia’s third-largest economy after the new government lays out its policy agenda next year. The agency’s outlook on rating remains negative.

However, Goldman upgraded its view on India to “marketweight”, with a Nifty target of 6,900 points. The investment bank noted optimism over political change is trumping economic concerns.

Markets this week: Sensex falls 2.6 percent, Jindal Steel slumps 9 percent

After rising for four consecutive weeks, the BSE Sensex fell 2.6 percent in the last five trading sessions, as a surprise repo rate hike by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Sept. 20 dampened investor confidence and battered banking shares.

Rate-sensitive sectors were hurt — the banking index and the realty index lost over 7 percent in the week. YES Bank fell 14.5 percent, SBI lost 6 percent while shares of DLF slumped 13 percent.

While analysts expected the new RBI chief Raghuram Rajan to hold rates last week, expectations for monetary policy have suddenly shifted towards further tightening after the rate hike, a recent Reuters poll showed.

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