When President Goodluck Jonathan’s government abruptly
removed the subsidy on Jan. 1, strikes and protests by trade
unions and civil society forced him to reinstate part of it,
though the pump price was increased by 50 percent.

“What we have here is that 59 million litres were discharged
by vessels, but the daily consumption locally was 35 million
litres,” Farouk Lawan, chairman of a House of Representatives
committee probing subsidies, told an Abuja sitting late on
Wednesday, in comments broadcast on independent station Channels
TV on Thursday.

The comments are likely to further stoke the debate over the
fuel subsidy, which economists say benefits wealthy fuel
importers and smugglers more than ordinary Nigerians.

“There is a gap of 24 million litres per day being funded by
Nigerians as subsidy that was not utilised by them. This of
course amounts to overpayment; or in other words, sharp
practices,” the legislator said.

Critics of the subsidy say fuel importers overcharge for
fuel using corrupt accounting procedures, and that much of the
fuel bought for local consumption is shipped over the border to
Cameroon and Benin, where smugglers can sell it for a huge
profit. Both views seem to be supported by Lawan’s findings.

“Smuggling has been encouraged by the system … if local
consumption is 35 million litres per day and we are paying for
59 million … we’re making available 24 million litres a day
for importers to smuggle out,” Lawan said.

Lawan’s committee is one of several investigations now in
place on Nigeria’s energy sector that were spurred by the fuel
subsidy row, including a Senate probe into subsidies, a probe by
the corruption watchdog into the state oil company and price
regulator, and an audit of the entire Oil Ministry.

BLAME GAME

In a statement on Thursday, the presidency said Jonathan was
still committed to “the total deregulation of the downstream
petroleum sector, not removal of subsidy alone”, which he said
was “in the interest of the future of Nigeria”.

Whether he can go through with it, given evident public
opposition, remains to be seen. Protesters said they wanted to
see the government tackle graft first before slashing welfare.

Nigeria imports most of the fuel it consumes because its
four refineries are decrepit, producing at only a quarter of
their installed capacity. The government buys the fuel then
sells it to the public at cheap, subsidised prices.

The committee heard the subsidy paid for the 24 million
litres per day imported by marketers but not consumed by
Nigerians amounted to 669 billion naira ($4.14 billion) a year.

Economists say the fuel subsidy encouraged corruption and
the wasteful use of fuel. The government had estimated it would
save 1 trillion naira ($6.2 billion) in 2012 by eliminating it.

But Nigerians have always fought against its removal because
they consider cheap petrol their sole benefit from living in a
major crude oil producer which loses billions of dollars to
corruption.

Its removal had more than doubled petrol pump prices to
around 150 naira ($0.93) per litre from 65 naira, but Jonathan
on Monday partly reinstated the subsidy, pegging the price at 97
naira.

“Subsidy was paid based on what was discharged; that was the
practice I met on the ground,” Reginald Stanley, head of the
Petroleum Products Pricing Regulatory Agency, which is in charge
of fuel imports, told the committee.

Stanley, who took charge of the agency in 2011, said he had
changed the system and from Jan. 1, subsidy would be paid only
for fuel actually trucked out of the port for consumption.

Stung by accusations of fraud, Nigeria’s fuel marketers took
out newspaper advertisements on Thursday, saying changes brought
into the Petroleum Support Fund scheme in 2007 were to blame for
allowing firms without petrol stations to claim the subsidy.

“This saw the emergence of ‘briefcase’ companies (with no
asset base or accountability) in the PSF scheme,” the Major Oil
Marketers Association of Nigeria said.
($1 = 161.4300 naira)

(Editing by Tim Cocks)

President Goodluck Jonathan’s government abruptly removed
the subsidy on Jan. 1 but strikes and protests by trade unions
and civil society forced him to reinstate some of it, although
the pump price was increased by 50 percent.

“What we have here is that 59 million litres were discharged
by vessels, but the daily consumption locally was 35 million
litres,” Farouk Lawan, chairman of a House of Representatives
committee probing subsidies, told an Abuja sitting late on
Wednesday, in comments broadcast on independent station Channels
TV on Thursday.

The comments are likely to further stoke the debate over the
fuel subsidy, which economists say benefits wealthy fuel
importers and smugglers more than ordinary Nigerians.

“There is a gap of 24 million litres per day being funded by
Nigerians as subsidy that was not utilised by them. This of
course amounts to overpayment; or in other words, sharp
practices,” the legislator said.

Critics of the subsidy say fuel importers overcharge for
fuel in corrupt accounting procedures and that much of the fuel
bought for local consumption is anyway shipped over the border
to Cameroon and Benin, where it can be sold for a huge profit by
smugglers. Both views seem to be supported by Lawan’s findings.

“Smuggling has been encouraged by the system … if local
consumption is 35 million litres per day and we are paying for
59 … we’re making available 24 million litres a day for
importers to smuggle out,” Lawan said.

Lawan’s committee is one of several investigations now in
place on Nigeria’s energy sector that were spurred by the fuel
subsidy row, including a Senate probe into subsidies, a probe by
the corruption watchdog into the state oil company and price
regulator, and an audit of the entire Oil Ministry.

BLAME GAME

Nigeria imports most of the fuel it consumes because its
four refineries are decrepit, producing at only a quarter of
their installed capacity. The government buys the fuel then
sells it to the public at cheap, subsidised prices.

The committee heard the subsidy paid for 24 million litres
per day imported by marketers but not consumed by Nigerians
amounted to 669 billion naira ($4.14 billion).

Economists say the fuel subsidy encouraged corruption and
the wasteful use of fuel. The government had estimated it would
save 1 trillion naira ($6.2 billion) in 2012 by eliminating it.

But Nigerians have always fought against its removal because
they consider cheap petrol their sole benefit from living in a
major crude oil producer which loses billions of dollars to
corruption.

Its removal had doubled petrol pump prices to around 150
naira ($0.93) per litre from 65 naira, but Jonathan on Monday
partially reinstated the subsidy, pegging the price at 97 naira.

“Subsidy was paid based on what was discharged; that was the
practice I met on the ground,” Reginald Stanley, head of the
Petroleum Products Pricing Regulatory Agency, which is in charge
of fuel imports, told the committee.

Stanley, who took charge of the agency in 2011, said he had
changed the system and from Jan. 1, subsidy would be paid only
for fuel actually trucked out of the port for consumption.

Stung by accusations of fraud, Nigeria’s fuel marketers took
out newspaper advertisements on Thursday, saying changes brought
into the Petroleum Support Fund scheme in 2007 were to blame for
allowing firms without pump stations to claim the subsidy.

“This saw the emergence of ‘briefcase’ companies (with no
asset base nor accountability) in the PSF scheme,” the Major Oil
Marketers Association of Nigeria said.
($1 = 161.4300 naira)

(Editing by Tim Cocks)

The powerful oligarchs in charge of the oil industry, Africa’s largest, have been attacked in the media and pilloried at rallies after their abrupt withdrawal of the fuel subsidy on New Year’s Day unleashed protests that crippled the economy.

“We call for a forensic audit of all the payments that have been made in the name of subsidy in the last 10 years,” independent daily This Day wrote in an editorial on Wednesday. “We call for the law to take its full course on those that have (become) fat on the nation’s misery.”

Strikes nearly led to a shutdown of some of Nigeria’s 2 million barrels per day of oil output, when oil workers threatened to join the action before the crisis was resolved.

President Goodluck Jonathan, elected with a healthy majority last April on an agenda to transform Africa’s most populous country, was forced to partially row back on scrapping the subsidy, a key economic reform.

Its removal had doubled petrol pump prices to around 150 naira ($0.93) per liter from 65 naira, but Jonathan on Monday partially reinstated the subsidy, pegging the price at 97 naira.

Although the immediate cause of the strikes and protests was fuel prices, protesters said the underlying anger was more about years of frustration at corruption and mismanagement of the country’s huge oil wealth.

Apparently sensitive to this, Jonathan and oil minister Diezani Allison-Madueke promised prompt action this week to implement long delayed reforms to the oil sector.

Allison-Madueke promised to investigate corruption in the sector and this week Nigeria’s corruption watchdog on her orders launched an investigation into the subsidy system, sending agents to the state oil company and petroleum pricing regulator.

Since then, the Senate has opened a probe into the fuel subsidy system and the oil ministry set up a committee designed to facilitate passing of a crucial oil bill.

On Wednesday, the government ordered a fresh audit of its entire oil and gas sector covering the last three years, a move likely to prompt skepticism given that previous such audits have usually not been acted on.

“This is the best outcome of this whole saga. If they bring in the long promised changes to the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation and others it will be the best thing that happens,” said Stephen Eze, a lawyer involved with the oil industry.

“People are asking serious questions and government is on its toes.”

WILL HEADS ROLL?

Allison-Madueke told a hearing of a parliamentary committee on Tuesday there had been some malpractice in the fuel subsidy but steps were being taken to root out fraud.

“Yes, there have been some manipulations in the sector; there is no doubt about it,” she said.

Nigeria’s oil sector has long been under fire for lacking transparency and for mismanagement, including in a report compiled by international accounting firm KPMG.

Allison-Madueke pledged to review such reports, but some analysts questioned her ministry’s good faith in doing so now.

“The KPMG report has been on your desk for over a year. So why now?” asked Kayode Akindele, partner at Lagos-based financial advisory firm 46 Parallels, suggesting this may be too little, too late.

“The president might have to sacrifice somebody, and it might have to be the petroleum minister. Nobody has said anything in support of her during all of this – they’ve defended the finance minister, but not the petroleum minister,” he added.

Others doubt Jonathan will go that far because he has always stopped short of removing her under pressure in the past.

“Normally a sacrifice would be in order – sack a minister or something like that – to draw a line under it,” said Antony Goldman, the head of London-based PM Consulting. “But the trouble is the oil minister was always vulnerable. She was vulnerable before, but she has special protection.”

Similarly, few Nigerians are holding out much hope that the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) will deliver up top officials for prosecution after its latest investigation.

The watchdog has been seen as ineffective over the years, arresting senior political figures, including former state governors, but the cases often fail to go anywhere.

CRUCIAL OIL BILL

Despite being among the world’s top 10 oil producers, Nigeria relies heavily on imported fuel as its own refineries are dilapidated, so the subsidy has become a cash handout of billions of dollars to a cartel of wealthy fuel importers.

Investment on refining and developing further oilfields for production hinges on passing a wide-ranging Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) that has been stuck in parliament for more than four years, costing Nigeria billions of dollars in lost investment.

Crude oil exports account for 80 percent of government revenue and 95 percent of foreign currency earnings.

Allison-Madueke also said on Monday she would meet legislators to try to speed up this massive bill aimed at changing everything from fiscal terms to the state oil company, before setting up the committee to do so.

“The set up of a bipartisan Special PIB Task Force is probably one of the positive outcomes of the recent events in Nigeria,” said Samir Gadio at Standard Bank.

“My feeling is that there is now the right momentum to speed up the adoption of the long-delayed bill, although the risk of public policy inertia will remain a concern,” he added.

Another factor that protests brought to light is anger over the huge cost of government, particularly in the national assembly, where pay and perks are among the world’s highest.

That could also help nudge the PIB along.

Akindele said: “One good thing is: this might push the PIB forward, because if this drags on, someone might start saying to the national assembly: what about your own salaries? … It will be a case of anything to keep the focus away from us. Let’s pass the PIB quickly.”

But even if it passes, Nigeria might struggle to attract investment into refineries unless it can scrap the fuel subsidy, analysts say, as few will invest in a sector where prices are fixed below the market rate.

“In order to attract private capital to the refining sector, Nigeria will need to provide a path toward full deregulation of the sector so investors can earn returns excess of their cost of capital,” said Melissa Cook, Africa investment strategist at U.S.-based Enclave Capital LLC.

Economists say the fuel subsidy encouraged corruption and the wasteful use of fuel. The government estimates it will save 1 trillion naira ($6.2 billion) in 2012 by eliminating it.

But the government’s willingness to back down on full deregulation because of the protests – the latest of several attempts that have been scuppered – has re-established a red line. That bodes ill for boosting refining capacity.

“You cannot alter the structure of that industry so long as there’s a subsidy which means the price (of retail petrol) is fixed. … nobody is going to invest in that industry,” Bismarck Rewane of the Lagos-based consultancy Financial Derivatives, said.

That is not likely to be the end of it. The 2012/13 national budget is due to come into effect in April, and Nigeria has made no provision for a fuel subsidy. Some commentators reckon the drama just witnessed could be replayed.

(Additional reporting by Tim Cocks and Chijioke Ohuocha in Lagos and Joe Brock in Abuja; Editing by Tim Cocks)

The powerful oligarchs in charge of the oil industry, Africa’s largest, have been attacked in the media and pilloried at rallies after their abrupt withdrawal of the fuel subsidy on New Year’s Day unleashed protests that crippled the economy.

“We call for a forensic audit of all the payments that have been made in the name of subsidy in the last 10 years,” independent daily This Day wrote in an editorial on Wednesday. “We call for the law to take its full course on those that have (become) fat on the nation’s misery.”

Strikes nearly led to a shutdown of some of Nigeria’s 2 million barrels per day of oil output, when oil workers threatened to join the action before the crisis was resolved.

President Goodluck Jonathan, elected with a healthy majority last April on an agenda to transform Africa’s most populous country, was forced to partially row back on scrapping the subsidy, a key economic reform.

Its removal had doubled petrol pump prices to around 150 naira ($0.93) per litre from 65 naira, but Jonathan on Monday partially reinstated the subsidy, pegging the price at 97 naira.

Although the immediate cause of the strikes and protests was fuel prices, protesters said the underlying anger was more about years of frustration at corruption and mismanagement of the country’s huge oil wealth.

Apparently sensitive to this, Jonathan and oil minister Diezani Allison-Madueke promised prompt action this week to implement long delayed reforms to the oil sector.

Allison-Madueke promised to investigate corruption in the sector and this week Nigeria’s corruption watchdog on her orders launched an investigation into the subsidy system, sending agents to the state oil company and petroleum pricing regulator.

“This is the best outcome of this whole saga. If they bring in the long promised changes to the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation and others it will be the best thing that happens,” said Stephen Eze, a lawyer involved with the oil industry.

“People are asking serious questions and government is on its toes.”

WILL HEADS ROLL?

Allison-Madueke told a hearing of a parliamentary committee on Tuesday there had been some malpractice in the fuel subsidy but steps were being taken to root out fraud.

“Yes, there have been some manipulations in the sector; there is no doubt about it,” she said.

Nigeria’s oil sector has long been under fire for lacking transparency and for mismanagement, including in a report compiled by international accounting firm KPMG.

Allison-Madueke pledged to review such reports, but some analysts questioned her ministry’s good faith in doing so now.

“The KPMG report has been on your desk for over a year. So why now?” asked Kayode Akindele, partner at Lagos-based financial advisory firm 46 Parallels, suggesting this may be too little, too late.

“The president might have to sacrifice somebody, and it might have to be the petroleum minister. Nobody has said anything in support of her during all of this – they’ve defended the finance minister, but not the petroleum minister,” he added.

Others doubt Jonathan will go that far because he has always stopped short of removing her under pressure in the past.

“Normally a sacrifice would be in order – sack a minister or something like that – to draw a line under it,” said Antony Goldman, the head of London-based PM Consulting. “But the trouble is the oil minister was always vulnerable. She was vulnerable before, but she has special protection.”

Similarly, few Nigerians are holding out much hope that the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) will deliver up top officials for prosecution after its latest investigation.

The watchdog has been seen as ineffective over the years, arresting senior political figures, including former state governors, but the cases often fail to go anywhere.

CRUCIAL OIL BILL

Despite being among the world’s top 10 oil producers, Nigeria relies heavily on imported fuel as its own refineries are dilapidated, so the subsidy has become a cash handout of billions of dollars to a cartel of wealthy fuel importers.

Investment on refining and developing further oilfields for production hinges on passing a wide-ranging Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) that has been stuck in parliament for more than four years, costing Nigeria billions of dollars in lost investment.

Crude oil exports account for 80 percent of government revenue and 95 percent of foreign currency earnings.

Allison-Madueke also said on Monday she would meet legislators to try to speed up this massive bill aimed at changing everything from fiscal terms to the state oil company.

On the same day, her ministry announced that it had set up a committee designed to facilitate this.

“The set up of a bipartisan Special PIB Task Force is probably one of the positive outcomes of the recent events in Nigeria,” said Samir Gadio at Standard Bank.

“My feeling is that there is now the right momentum to speed up the adoption of the long-delayed bill, although the risk of public policy inertia will remain a concern,” he added.

Another factor that protests brought to light is anger over the huge cost of government, particularly in the national assembly, where pay and perks are among the world’s highest.

That could also help nudge the PIB along.

Akindele said: “One good thing is: this might push the PIB forward, because if this drags on, someone might start saying to the national assembly: what about your own salaries? … It will be a case of anything to keep the focus away from us. Let’s pass the PIB quickly.”

But even if it passes, Nigeria might struggle to attract investment into refineries unless it can scrap the fuel subsidy, analysts say, as few will invest in a sector where prices are fixed below the market rate.

“In order to attract private capital to the refining sector, Nigeria will need to provide a path toward full deregulation of the sector so investors can earn returns excess of their cost of capital,” said Melissa Cook, Africa investment strategist at U.S.-based Enclave Capital LLC.

Economists say the fuel subsidy encouraged corruption and the wasteful use of fuel. The government estimates it will save 1 trillion naira ($6.2 billion) in 2012 by eliminating it.

But the government’s willingness to back down on full deregulation because of the protests – the latest of several attempts that have been scuppered – has re-established a red line. That bodes ill for boosting refining capacity.

“You cannot alter the structure of that industry so long as there’s a subsidy which means the price (of retail petrol) is fixed. … nobody is going to invest in that industry,” Bismarck Rewane of the Lagos-based consultancy Financial Derivatives, said.

That is not likely to be the end of it. The 2012/13 national budget is due to come into effect in April, and Nigeria has made no provision for a fuel subsidy. Some commentators reckon the drama just witnessed could be replayed.

(Additional reporting by Tim Cocks and Chijioke Ohuocha in Lagos and Joe Brock in Abuja; Editing by Tim Cocks)

A decisive election victory by President Goodluck Jonathan in Nigeria has shifted power firmly to the largely Christian south from the Muslim north and could reopen political fissures in Africa’s top energy supplier.

Violence swept northern cities, leaving hundreds of people dead and many homeless after Jonathan’s crushing victory over his northern opponent Muhammadu Buhari, a former military ruler.

“Jonathan’s landslide, though on the surface it appears like a resounding pan-Nigeria mandate, has brought back with a vengeance all the religious and sectional cleavage, not to mention ethnic bitterness,” Olakunle Abimbola of The Nation newspaper wrote in a column.

Many people see the riots as a reaction by the north to being cut adrift from power and say Jonathan will have to tread gingerly to avoid fuelling resentment in the vast impoverished area. So far the president has said his victory is for all Nigerians and his aides have refrained from being triumphalist.

Although Buhari won in almost all Nigeria’s northern states, Jonathan also picked up millions of votes and his northern backers — particularly in the elite — have high expectations.

After independence from Britain in 1960, the understanding among Nigerians for many years was that the less advanced north held political power, while the south, where Christianity and Western-style ideas have long held sway, controlled the economy.

But that implicit north-south deal was always on shaky ground.

Read the full story here.

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The state governorship races, which began on Tuesday, are the final stage in elections which have seen some of the worst political violence in years in Africa’s most populous nation.

Rioting left hundreds dead in the mostly Muslim north last week after President Goodluck Jonathan, a southern Christian, beat northern rival Muhammadu Buhari in the presidential vote.

The state governors are among the most powerful politicians in Nigeria, wielding influence over national policy and in some cases controlling budgets larger than small African nations, and the ruling party is keen to maintain its strong regional grip.

With results in from half of the 24 states in which governorship elections were held, the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) held on to seven but lost two — Ogun in the southwest and Nasarawa in the center.

But it won Kano, the most populous state in the north, from the opposition and swept all assembly seats in the northern state of Sokoto.

Lagos, the commercial capital, remained the southwestern stronghold of the opposition Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) as expected while the northern state of Yobe remained in the hands of the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP).

Ballot box snatching and intimidation marred Tuesday’s votes in some parts of Nigeria, but there was nothing on the scale of the violence last week which followed the presidential election.

“Although in general there was low turnout, reports from observers indicate that the elections were well organised and largely peaceful in many states,” said the Election Situation Room, a grouping of more than 20 civil society groups.

“In other states, however, there were considerable reports of violence, ballot box snatching and other forms of electoral malpractice,” it said in a statement.

COURT CHALLENGES

There were immediate cries of foul play.

“We’re going to contest the result in the court of law because this is not the true reflection of the votes by the people,” said Musa Sule of the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) in the northern state of Jigawa, won by the PDP.

The ruling party said it would challenge the result in Lagos.

Soldiers arrested people stealing ballot boxes in several states around the country on Tuesday, including parts of the oil-producing Niger Delta in the south and Kano in the north.

Police on Wednesday confirmed the shooting of a member of a state assembly in the southern Delta state. The force said her driver was killed in the incident which it said was “ballot box snatching.”

The governorship vote is due to end on Thursday in the northern states of Kaduna and Bauchi, areas which saw some of the worst riots last week.

This month’s elections have been an emotional rollercoaster for the 73 million registered voters in Nigeria, which — until 11 days ago — had failed to hold a single credible election since the end of military rule in 1999.

Euphoria over a presidential vote deemed free and fair by observers turned to despair last week as Buhari rejected the outcome and his supporters took to the streets, burning churches, mosques and homes. Tens of thousands of people are still sheltering in army barracks.

Jonathan’s PDP saw its parliamentary majority narrow in this month’s polls and had also been expected to lose some states after Tuesday’s vote. Buhari’s Congress for Progressive Change, a new party, is expected to perform strongly in the north.

(Editing by Nick Tattersall and Andrew Heavens)

Violence swept northern cities, leaving hundreds of people dead and many homeless after Jonathan’s crushing victory over his northern opponent Muhammadu Buhari, a former military ruler.

“Jonathan’s landslide, though on the surface it appears like a resounding pan-Nigeria mandate, has brought back with a vengeance all the religious and sectional cleavage, not to mention ethnic bitterness,” Olakunle Abimbola of The Nation newspaper wrote in a column.

Many people see the riots as a reaction by the north to being cut adrift from power and say Jonathan will have to tread gingerly to avoid fuelling resentment in the vast impoverished area.

So far the president has said his victory is for all Nigerians and his aides have refrained from being triumphalist.

Although Buhari won in almost all Nigeria’s northern states, Jonathan also picked up millions of votes and his northern backers — particularly in the elite — have high expectations.

“His inauguration as president on May 29 will be payback time,” a senior member of the Arewa Consultative Council, a northerner leaders forum, told Reuters.

“To win the presidency on the first ballot, as he did, he met many times with northern leaders and made many promises. One of the concessions is that he will serve one term which we will hold him to,” said the member, who asked not to be named.

The council, some of whose top members were targeted in the post election violence for backing Jonathan against Buhari, was counting on the north getting key posts and projects, the member added.

“It will be quite difficult for him to govern because there are so many interest groups to satisfy,” the member said.

After independence from Britain in 1960, the understanding among Nigerians for many years was that the less advanced north held political power, while the south, where Christianity and Western-style ideas have long held sway, controlled the economy.

But that implicit north-south deal was always on shaky ground.

Southern soldiers staged Nigeria’s first coup in January 1966, killing mainly northern political and military leaders.

That sparked a 30-month civil war, killing more than a million from fighting and starvation, ending with the north firmly in control when the breakaway Biafra republic surrendered.

BALANCING ACT

The north-south balancing act faced another challenge when self-made billionaire Moshood Abiola, a Yoruba from the southwest, won a presidential vote on June 12, 1993.

Alarmed, the generals in power at the time annulled the vote and within a few months the diminutive dictator General Sani Abacha seized power and clamped Abiola in jail, waving aside local and international appeals to free the election winner.

Both men died mysteriously in 1998 within a month of each other, in Abiola’s case in prison, triggering riots in his Yoruba stronghold in and around Lagos, Nigeria’s biggest city and commercial capital.

Their demise, however, cleared the deck for the restoration of democracy in 1999, with a tacit understanding by the dominant PDP party that power would switch between north and south, each serving two four-year terms.

Olusegun Obasanjo, a southerner, duly served two terms as president and was succeeded by an ailing northerner, Umaru Yar’Adua, on whose death, Jonathan, then vice president, took over last year as stipulated by the constitution.

Some northern politicians demanded he serve out Yar’Adua’s term and stand down to let the north back in. Instead the former university lecturer stood and won the PDP nomination and then the presidency.

“In the south, we are feeling liberated from many years of northern rule,” retired businessman Joshua Ajayi told Reuters.

ECONOMIC DISPARITY

Now the north appears to have lost political power and has no economic levers to compensate for it.

The vast region is in tatters, with most of its agriculture shriveling due to neglect and dry conditions especially in areas close to the Sahel region.

Children, encouraged by an Islamic culture of alms giving, roam northern cities begging for handouts, an uncommon sight in the south where people tend to fend for themselves.

Years of hydrocarbon exploration in the Lake Chad region in the north, where oil is being exploited on the other side of the border, has not yielded anything that can be commercially mined.

In contrast, large, bustling industrial cities like Lagos, Port Harcourt and Onitsha continue to thrive in the south and attract migrant workers and business activity.

“The president had better summon the political will to set into motion radical processes to restructure Nigeria along productive federal lines, instead of being lulled by a false dawn of a ‘pan Nigeria’ mandate,” The Nation’s Abimbola said.

And managing the north-south split is far from his only challenge.

Jonathan is the architect of an amnesty for insurgents that has halted militant attacks on oil installations in the Niger delta, his home turf, where nearly all of Nigeria’s economic lifeblood oil and gas is produced.

Many people will be looking to him to use his mandate to end once and for all hostilities that nearly paralyzed Africa’s biggest oil and gas industry.

Also crying out for his attention is a lack of public power supply, which Jonathan has long promised to remedy, as well as corruption, which many say are Nigeria’s two main drawbacks.

“He has to fight corruption,” said Rilwan Musa, a political analyst from the north.

(Editing by Nick Tattersall and Andrew Heavens)

The state governorship races, which began on Tuesday, are
the final stage in elections which have seen some of the
country’s worst political violence in years.

Local newspapers said the ruling party was quite likely to
retain many states despite rioting which left hundreds dead in
the mostly Muslim north last week after President Goodluck
Jonathan, a southern Christian, beat northern rival Muhammadu
Buhari in the presidential election.

There were localised problems on Tuesday but nothing on a
similar scale.

Police on Wednesday confirmed the shooting of a member of a
state assembly in the southern Delta state and said her driver
was killed in the incident it described as “ballot box
snatching.”
Soldiers arrested people stealing ballot boxes in several
states around the country, including parts of the oil-producing
Niger Delta in the south and Kano in the north.

Sullivan Chime, from the ruling People’s Democratic Party
(PDP), held on to the governorship of the eastern state of Enugu
with a large majority in the first results reported by state-run
News Agency of Nigeria (NAN).

The governorship vote is due to end on Thursday in the
northern states of Kaduna and Bauchi — areas which saw some of
the worst riots.

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Graphic on elections: link.reuters.com/xet78r

More stories, background and analysis: [ID:nLDE68H051]

TABLE-Latest governorship election results [ID:nLDE73P1X1]

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HIGH STAKES

State polls have often been the most volatile in Nigeria as
the 36 governors are among the country’s most powerful
politicians, wielding national influence and controlling budgets
often larger than those of small African nations.

They are also seen as more likely to be able to influence
the lives of ordinary Nigerians than the president, far away in
the capital Abuja, meaning voters also see the stakes as high.

This month’s elections have been an emotional rollercoaster
for the 73 million registered voters in Nigeria, which — until
11 days ago — had failed to hold a single credible election
since the end of military rule in 1999.

Euphoria over a presidential vote deemed free and fair by
observers turned to despair last week as Buhari rejected the
outcome and his supporters took to the streets, burning
churches, mosques and homes. Tens of thousands of people are
still sheltering in army barracks.

Jonathan’s People’s Democratic Party saw its parliamentary
majority narrow in this month’s polls and is also expected to
lose some states after Tuesday’s vote. Buhari’s Congress for
Progressive Change is expected to perform strongly in the north.
(Editing by Giles Elgood)
(For full Reuters Africa coverage and to have your say on the
top issues, visit: af.reuters.com/ )

Violence erupted in the north last week after Goodluck
Jonathan, a southern Christian, was declared winner by a wide
margin of an April 16 presidential election.

Supporters of his northern opponent Muhammadu Buhari
rejected the results and took to the streets. Hundreds of people
died in the ensuing violence and churches, mosques and homes
were set ablaze.

Thousands of displaced people are sheltering in army
barracks where they are being looked after by aid agencies.

Some suggested this week’s voting for state governors and
state assemblies be postponed to allow tempers to cool but
Jonathan said the polls would go ahead despite the violence.

“This was a public declaration that he won’t let anything
stand in the way of completing this election cycle,” Patrick
Mmeme, a public policy analyst and writer, told Reuters.

<^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Graphic on elections: link.reuters.com/xet78r

More stories, background and analysis: [nLDE68H051]

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>

State polls have in the past led to unrest in the Niger
Delta, the southern heartland of Africa’s biggest oil and gas
industry, where politicians armed thugs to intimidate voters.

There has already been violence in some parts of the region,
including rioting in the state of Akwa Ibom and attacks on
rallies in Bayelsa, and the security forces are on high alert.

But this year it is the north which provides the biggest
security headache. In two northern states, Kaduna and Bauchi,
where some of the worst violence took place last week, voting
will be delayed until Thursday.

“The north has become a killing field as a consequence of
growing social, ethnic and religious intolerance,” Abdullahi
Adamu, a former state governor elected senator for Nasarawa West
in the region, told the Daily Trust newspaper.

“Violence has drawn the north back several decades. We have
murdered our brothers and sisters in cold blood, destroyed our
property and even infrastructure and places of worship for no
just cause,” said Adamu, a prominent member of Jonathan’s party.

Some commentators have expressed shock that rioters
attacked the palaces of emirs, traditional Muslim rulers, in a
part of the country where authority was once respected.

Properties of northern politicians and businessmen known to
have backed Jonathan, who became president when his predecessor
died, are also reported to have been attacked.

WINNER-TAKES-ALL MENTALITY

Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country, with more than 150
million people, is split almost equally between a mainly Muslim
north and a majority Christian south, although large minority
groups live in both regions.

As in much of Africa, losers are often unwilling to concede
defeat and wait in opposition for another four or five years
while the winner enjoys all the trappings of power.

Despite providing more Nigerian leaders than the south since
independence from Britain 50 years ago, the north remains mired
in deeper poverty than anywhere else.

The series of elections began with a parliamentary vote
which was delayed by administrative chaos, followed by the
presidential ballot. This week’s polls will again be fiercely
contested by all five main parties.

Much is at stake in the finale since the 36 state governors
control big budgets in the oil-producing country, are closer to
the people and influence policy at state and federal level.

A successful conclusion of the elections, judged so far to
have been the most credible since a return to democracy in 1999,
could boost Nigeria’s world standing and attract investment.
(Editing by Andrew Dobbie and Nick Tattersall)
(For full Reuters Africa coverage and to have your say on the
top issues, visit: af.reuters.com/ )

Violence erupted in the north last week after Goodluck
Jonathan, a southern Christian, was declared winner by a wide
margin of an April 16 presidential election.

Supporters of his northern opponent Muhammadu Buhari
rejected the results and took to the streets. Hundreds of people
died in the ensuing violence and churches, mosques and homes
were set ablaze.

Thousands of displaced people are sheltering in army
barracks where they are being looked after by aid agencies.

Some suggested this week’s voting for state governors and
state assemblies be postponed to allow tempers to cool but
Jonathan said the polls would go ahead despite the violence.

“This was a public declaration that he won’t let anything
stand in the way of completing this election cycle,” Patrick
Mmeme, a public policy analyst and writer, told Reuters.

<^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Graphic on elections: link.reuters.com/xet78r

More stories, background and analysis: [nLDE68H051]

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>

State polls have in the past led to unrest in the Niger
Delta, the southern heartland of Africa’s biggest oil and gas
industry, where politicians armed thugs to intimidate voters.

There has already been violence in some parts of the region,
including rioting in the state of Akwa Ibom and attacks on
rallies in Bayelsa, and the security forces are on high alert.

But this year it is the north which provides the biggest
security headache. In two northern states, Kaduna and Bauchi,
where some of the worst violence took place last week, voting
will be delayed until Thursday.

“The north has become a killing field as a consequence of
growing social, ethnic and religious intolerance,” Abdullahi
Adamu, a former state governor elected senator for Nasarawa West
in the region, told the Daily Trust newspaper.

“Violence has drawn the north back several decades. We have
murdered our brothers and sisters in cold blood, destroyed our
property and even infrastructure and places of worship for no
just cause,” said Adamu, a prominent member of Jonathan’s party.

Some commentators have expressed shock that rioters
attacked the palaces of emirs, traditional Muslim rulers, in a
part of the country where authority was once respected.

Properties of northern politicians and businessmen known to
have backed Jonathan, who became president when his predecessor
died, are also reported to have been attacked.

WINNER-TAKES-ALL MENTALITY

Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country, with more than 150
million people, is split almost equally between a mainly Muslim
north and a majority Christian south, although large minority
groups live in both regions.

As in much of Africa, losers are often unwilling to concede
defeat and wait in opposition for another four or five years
while the winner enjoys all the trappings of power.

Despite providing more Nigerian leaders than the south since
independence from Britain 50 years ago, the north remains mired
in deeper poverty than anywhere else.

The series of elections began with a parliamentary vote
which was delayed by administrative chaos, followed by the
presidential ballot. This week’s polls will again be fiercely
contested by all five main parties.

Much is at stake in the finale since the 36 state governors
control big budgets in the oil-producing country, are closer to
the people and influence policy at state and federal level.

A successful conclusion of the elections, judged so far to
have been the most credible since a return to democracy in 1999,
could boost Nigeria’s world standing and attract investment.
(Editing by Andrew Dobbie and Nick Tattersall)
(For full Reuters Africa coverage and to have your say on the
top issues, visit: af.reuters.com/ )