James Pethokoukis

Morgan Stanley: No V-shaped recovery

May 22, 2009

Economist Richard Berner lays out the case why the recovery won’t be a pretty sight:

America’s AAA bond rating

May 22, 2009

Will America’s lose its AAA S&P bond rating? Not anytime soon, says the econ team at Wachovia:

Bernanke vs. Bond Market Vigilantes

May 22, 2009

Relying on the Fed cannot be the sum total of an economic policy to increase economic growth. In fact, current Fed policy may well be saving the U.S. banking system, but it is hardly setting the stage for a robust economic recovery. Scott Grannis (Calafia Beach Pundit) notices the rise in 10-year yields (bold is mine):

Is unemployment finally biting consumer confidence?

May 22, 2009

Consumer confidence has strengthened as the prospects of a Great Depression 2.0 have seemingly subsided. But it’s out of the frying pan and into the fire thanks to rising unemployment.  And maybe that explains these plunging consumer confidence numbers from Rasmussen:

Another mustard seed

May 22, 2009

The Cleveland Fed likes what it sees in the steepening yield curve, but no guarantees:

Cap-and trade? Call me in 2010. Maybe 2011

May 22, 2009

I think political analyst Dan Clifton of Strategas, an institutional research firm, has it about right concerning the prospects for a cap-and-trade climate bill passing Congress this year:

China: U.S. climate bill too wimpy

May 22, 2009

I will admit that when I read the headline “China Looks for Big Cuts in Emissions” in the WSJ today, I thought the country had radically shifted policy and was joining the cap-and-trade crowd. My bad. The Reuters hed is more accurate: “China tells rich nations to cut emissions by 40 percent.” (Read the story.) I think it is more likely that the U.S. will eventually slap a carbon emissions tafiff on Chinese goods than it will accede to such demands, not that I think the former is too likely either.