Asia, the dollar and gold

June 4, 2009

OK, so it looks like Rising Asia is trying to get on the same currency page. Now lots of people think rumblings of the region dumping the dollar are empty threats. Where are they going to go, right? The euro? Please. David Goldman of the fantastic  Inner Workings blog thinks he has it figured out bold is mine):

The Asian exit from the dollar will be turtle-slow and gradual. China and Japan between them have nearly $2 trillion worth of US Treasury securities and will do nothing to jeapordize their existing investment. But the collapse of governance in the United States and the Obama administration’s response have turned the US into a zombie economy, and the dollar into a zombie currency. The Euro offers no alternative. Demographically Europe is dying, and Europe’s economic misery is worse than America’s. … Apart from the problem of protecting a massive existing investment in the dollar, Asia has another problem in existing from the dollar: there exists no natural alternative. An alternative would have to be constructed.  … Asia may have passed a milestone in monetary cooperation, but China, India and Japan never will establish the sort of political rapport that allows for currency union along European lines. To link their currencies would require an agreement to employ an objective benchmark for monetary policy, and the obvious choice would be some basket of commodities. … This is a five, perhaps a ten-year project, to be executed very gradually and very carefully as the Treasury’s largest foreign investors gradually reduce exposure to the US market and create their own financial markets.

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Nice post. Keep it up.