A somewhat more bullish outlook

June 9, 2009

From Macroeconomic Advisers:

GDP declined at a 5.7% annual rate in the first quarter following a 6.3% decline in the fourth quarter of last year. Together, these declines constitute the second sharpest two-quarter decline in GDP in the postwar period. But a bottom in GDP is forming, and we look for a modest 0.9% decline in the second quarter followed by moderate growth in the second half of this year and above-trend growth in 2010 and 2011. The sources of the rebound continue to be the aggressive monetary and fiscal policy responses under way; the success in Treasury’s efforts to recapitalize the major banks and to provide sufficient capital buffers, if necessary, so that banks are more likely to make loans; diminished drag from housing and credit conditions; and a rebound in equities that is already under way. In this forecast, the unemployment rate peaks at 9.6% at the end of this year and declines only slowly thereafter. Inflation falls significantly, and the FOMC is expected to maintain a near-zero federal funds rate for a very extended period.

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The entire financial crisis has a common denominator. It’s easy to research James. People are not paying attention. One ” too big to fail” company has caused the crisis by doing something very very illegal. That same company is receiving all the bail out and TARP money.
It all relates to Social Security. Unfortunately, it was privatized long ago, prior to 1991 and lost. International accounts were paid to one company who was caught, created the whole crisis and it goes back to Enron.

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