Iran election, America and globalization

June 15, 2009

Geopolitical strategist Tom Barnett weighs in on the Iran “election” (note, especially, his final point):

That is an impressive first-round win that means: 1) the nuke program goes ahead; and 2) the Supreme Leader is nowhere near ready to reform the economy, so no desire to deal externally. My hope had always been that this was a regime far enough along in understanding how screwed-up its economy is (USSR circa 84-86), but we are clearly still in the early 1980s/Brezhnevian clueless phase when belief in external enlargement of influence is held to be a strong counterweight to internal decline. I would expect Tehran to offer more of the same. Ahmadnejad, I don’t think, was promoted by the SL for any Nixon-like opening. Hence, Israel is highly incentivized to attack this year.

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Good excerpt. It does seem to be likely, that if there isn’t a significant political moderation in Iran, Israel (with their newly crowned conservative gov) has every excuse to attack. Any sympathy or goodwill the Iranian leadership may have acquired recently, will certainly evaporate with the confirmation of the election of Ahmadinijad.

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