James Pethokoukis

Politics and policy from inside Washington

The fate of cap-and-trade in the House

June 26, 2009

My guy Dan Clifton of Strategas Research hears what I am also hearing:

As of early this morning, the votes were not present for passage, but House leadership has publicly claimed progress and is confident they have the votes to pass the legislation. Should the bill pass, the vote will likely be a razor thin majority. While today’s vote will have an impact on the financial markets, we remain convinced that passage in the Senate is a very unlikely event and today could represent a head fake. Passage of the House bill should not be underestimated, but House passage is not a proxy for the Senate passage. A razor thin simple majority in the House does not translate into a required 3/5 majority in a more restrictive Senate.

Me: Time is not on the side of the cap-and-trade effort. The longer the economy stays weak, the more this legislation seems like an expensive indulgence. Plus, the consensus on the science is breaking down.

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