James Pethokoukis

Politics and policy from inside Washington

Prof. Copper and the V-shaped recovery

July 27, 2009

Ed Yardeni takes note:

The S&P 500 is one of the ten components of the Index of Leading Economic Indicators. It seems to be forecasting a robust V-shaped economic recovery. This has got to be the most contrary scenario of all right now. Everybody is hung up about the anemic outlook for employment. I am too. So what is the S&P 500 seeing out there? How about yet another global bubble boom? This one is led by China, where M2 was up 28.5% y/y in June. Professor Copper seems to agree with this outlook. The price of this basic metal rose to $2.52 a pound at the end of last week, the highest since October 7, 2008. China‚Äôs Dow Jones Shanghai Composite is up 53% since March 6, well ahead of the S&P 500. It actually bottomed on November 4, 2008, and is up 122% since then to 383.78. That’s certainly an impressive meltup. Even more impressive would be if it recovers back to its record high of 588 on October 16, 2007. Anything is possible in a bubble.

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