Higher growth vs. rising unemployment

August 3, 2009

Two fun factoids:

1) During the past two recessions, the unemployment rate kept rising for 15 months (1990-91 downturn) and 19 months (2001 downturn) after the recession officially ended, according to the National Bureau of Economcic Research.  If that happens now, we are looking at rising joblessness right smack into Election Day 2010.

2) During the first quarter of the last 10 economic recoveries, real GDP rose 5.8 percent on average, with a high of 17.2 percent during the first quarter of 1950 and a low of 1.4 percent during Q4-2001. That from Ed Yardeni. Here are the first two quarters of growth from each of the past three recessions: 1981-82 (0.3, 5.1), 1990-91 (2.7, 1.7), 2001 1.4, 3.5).

Bottom line: There is going to be a quarter coming up that Obama can crow about — but won’t because of rising unemployment.

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