Study: Housing market will be in a recession for decades
A University of Utah study predicts that the percentage of U.S. households that own homes — a number which peaked at 70.4 percent in 2004 and 2005 and is now at 67.4 percent — will drop to about 63.5 percent by 2020. That would be the lowest level since 1985. The reasons are a) smaller households, b) tighter credit, c) green desires thatare pro-renting.
David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff give his two cents on what it all means:
At a time when there are still some 800,000 units in excess that are vacant AND for sale, this secular decline in demand spells one thing and one thing only — a secular deflation in residential real estate. The periodic months of “green shoot” stability will very likely prove to be little more than noise along a fundamental downtrend in pricing.