David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff outlines the bear case on Ben Bernanke getting reappointed by Obama:
Bernanke was a giant cheerleader for the leverage-induced economy during his time as the chief economist at the White House and while he was aggressive (and likely broke every rule in the book of central banking) in getting the credit market and economy back on track, he failed at the outset to realize the severity of the credit collapse and treated it as a liquidity event only for months
The Fed’s economic forecast that was published just over a year ago for late 2008 and 2009 is an embarrassment, to say the least. Valuable time was lost under his watch and the question is (i) does the Administration look at his entire record as opposed to his period as a White Knight, and (ii) will Mr. B end up being a scapegoat once the economy relapses in the fourth quarter and the unemployment rate makes new post-WWII highs along the way. See the front page of the NYT for more — Bernanke, a Hero to his Own, Still Faces Fire in Washington. The search committee is already out, by the way, and the likes of Blinder, Yellen, Ferguson and Summers are on it.
Me: I notice that Intrade has Bernanke at 80 percent, but contract is pretty lightly traded. I just keep thinking about the House Government Oversight Committee meeting concerning BofA and Merill where members from both parties basically said Bernanke was lying about his role in the merger. That can’t be good.