James Pethokoukis
Politics and policy from inside Washington
Some terrible unemployment data
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This from IHS Global Insight:
Although there are increasing signs that the economy has bottomed out, IHS Global Insight’s summer forecast shows that a job recovery is still a ways off for most of the nation’s metropolitan areas. Of the 363 metros in the country, just one—McAllen, Texas—will add more than 1,000 jobs this year. While most areas will begin increasing employment again in 2010, it will be tepid, with only 118 metros crossing the 1,000-job mark next year. Solid gains will not return for the majority of the country until 2011.
The slow recovery means it will be well into next decade before most areas regain the jobs lost during this recession. Not surprisingly, auto-ravaged Detroit will see the largest employment decline (more than 15%) among major metro areas, and will need years, if not decades, to recover. The housing-bust metros of the Sunbelt (Phoenix, Arizona; Riverside, California; Tampa, Florida) will all suffer steep drops and not return to pre-recession levels until 2013 or later. At the other end of the spectrum, Texas metros and Washington, DC, have avoided the brunt of this downturn and, thus, will be among the first to recover.
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Not much of an insight; employment numbers are a lagging indicator, and given the depth and breadth of this recession why is it surprising that it will take a long time to get back to ‘norms’ that really shouldn’t have been the norm in the first place? And the other shocker – places hurt more by the recession will take longer to recover. I feel like Neo in the Matrix – “Woah!” Brilliant. Dig a little deeper, pal, b/c this isn’t really news, it’s filler.