A VW-shaped economic recovery?
That is the analysis of my pal Rich Karlgaard over at Forbes. (Insert joke about Obama and fahrvergnügen here.) Some sectors of the economy will boom as others muddle through or stay on the mat. Warren Buffett put it best: “When the tide goes out, you discover who’s been swimming naked.” Here’s a bit from the piece:
But here’s the thing. The American recovery may be U-shaped, on balance, but within that U will pockets of Vs and Ws. That’s why I call it the VW recovery.
The V part of the VW economy includes dynamic growth companies and large exporters. Apple is enjoying a V recovery. Salesforce.com just reported a big, booming V quarter on Friday. Mobile broadband is an entire industry that will enjoy sustained V growth. Low-tax states like Texas, Tennessee and North Dakota are experiencing V recoveries.
America’s W economy includes all those companies, industries, states, cities and personal careers where deteriorating value propositions were masked in good times. It always happens that way. Recessions unmask bad business models. … Today’s W economy: newspapers, McMansion builders, inefficient manufacturers, high-tax state and local governments, and workers unable to adapt, relearn and relocate.