James Pethokoukis

How fast will the U.S. job market bounce back?

August 27, 2009

Economist Robert Brusca thinks he knows:

Right now the job losses in this cycle number 6.9mln, a drop of 5.9% from the peak. It has taken 19 months to get these losses in place. The metrics above suggest that the forecast of how long it will take to get them back should be about 19 months as well (we’ll use 20 months since jobs are still falling). And while that is a long time – nearly two years- it is not so long to restore 6.9mln jobs. If we get them back in 20 months it will take job gains averaging 345,000 per month. Right now that seems like an amazing number. Yet, that is what history says happens. So we’ll see.

Tobin taxes, again

August 27, 2009

If FDIC chief Sheila Bair really wants to cause a regulatory stir, she ought to take a look at what Lord Turner, chairman of the Financial Services Authority, is up to. He wants to trim down the size of the U.K. financial sector (via the Telegraph):

Good 2Q GDP report could mean an even stronger 3Q report

August 27, 2009

The bullish Brian Wesbury and Bob Stein of First Trust find today’s GDP report (2Q was down an unrevised 1.0 percent) to be, well bullish:

Can U.S. grow its way out of deficit problem?

August 27, 2009

Certainly America shouldn’t settle for 2.5 percent real GDP growth over the long term, but the economy would have to do much better than that to fix entitlement programs through growth alone (via the Heritage Foundation). Like, a LOT better: