Comments on: Study: possible to predict stock market crashes http://blogs.reuters.com/james-pethokoukis/2009/08/28/study-possible-to-predict-stock-market-crashes/ Politics and policy from inside Washington Sun, 07 Apr 2013 21:23:48 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.4.2 By: greg http://blogs.reuters.com/james-pethokoukis/2009/08/28/study-possible-to-predict-stock-market-crashes/comment-page-1/#comment-1940 greg Fri, 28 Aug 2009 14:53:07 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/james-pethokoukis/?p=1690#comment-1940 This is a very interesting development! I figured there was a way to predict steep drops based on an accelerating upward trend, kind of like an asymptote. This could prove invaluable in the future. However, I did not need a logarithm to predict that the Shanghai index would fall. All the news surrounding the Chinese economy points to an inflated stock market based on inflated real estate and excessive risky lending. Personally, I think the Shanghai index is a lagging indicator, and it will likely fall precipitously sometime this fall/winter. I dont believe that China is immune to the world financial crisis, it just hasnt caught up with the rest of us yet. It will be very interesting to see the consequences of this situation. This is a very interesting development! I figured there was a way to predict steep drops based on an accelerating upward trend, kind of like an asymptote. This could prove invaluable in the future.

However, I did not need a logarithm to predict that the Shanghai index would fall. All the news surrounding the Chinese economy points to an inflated stock market based on inflated real estate and excessive risky lending.

Personally, I think the Shanghai index is a lagging indicator, and it will likely fall precipitously sometime this fall/winter. I dont believe that China is immune to the world financial crisis, it just hasnt caught up with the rest of us yet. It will be very interesting to see the consequences of this situation.

]]>