What does 9.7 percent unemployment mean for Democrats?

September 4, 2009

Marc Ambinder looks at this question and concludes a) that anything under 10 percent is better than expected, b) 0.3 percent makes a big difference politically, and c) Team Obama will be able to more or less successfully blame Bush. His bottom line:

The economy is expected to play a big role in the 2010 elections, with Democrats bearing the brunt of a worsening situation. That’ll depend a lot on the duration of the decline, just how bad things get, and what direction they’re heading as November 2010 approaches. Right now, 9.7 percent doesn’t tell us a whole lot about how that will play out.

Me: How about this instead: Unemployment is killing the White House, and it doesn’t need to get a 0.1 percent worse to continue to suck the life out of this administration. Obama’s approval ratings are down 8 points in three months. People have become accustomed to very low rates of unemployment and short recessions. Those expectations are politically devastating to Democrats.

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