James Pethokoukis

Politics and policy from inside Washington

A China reality check

October 28, 2009

Thomas PM Barnett makes good sense, as usual:

Japan’s rise and decline should serve as a grim warning to China right now.

Japan got old, but China will get older faster. Japan kept its environment relatively clean, China is trashing its own. Japan built its manufacturing power on excellent goods, China is fly-by-night by comparison (reading a book on that now).

In sum, China has so many huge hidden deficits incurred during its rise, that I think it will suffer future stagnation that makes Japan’s seem tame, especially since China’s political system is so brittle and unimaginative.

I guess I’m just responding to all this China-will-rule-the-world vibe connected with the 60th b-day celebration. As soon as I read stuff like that, the Irish in me says you’re heading for a fall.

Comments

Thomas big picture is right. It’s when everything looks almighty that the wise knows the wall is coming. Latest victim of national hubris – the land of the ‘free lunch’. Remains to be debated: Is China leadership full of hubris? Evidence says no. Then, how will they fix things?

So a new paradigm of ‘Chinamerica’ is emerging: Who will fix their country better and faster?

Posted by The Real Deal | Report as abusive
 

It’s kind of sad that people have to look to China for hope. It really is a terrible land, aside the wonderous construction projects that are meant to overpower the senses and confuse us. A land that feels it needs to make monuments to power really has none… they’re growth rates are completely doctored, corruption is open and rampant, the gov’t keeps the currency pegged artificially, and the gov’t uses the military to control the citizenry. Though it is little reported here, there are numerous regions of (essentially) open revolt in China, not to mention occupied land (Tibet) which spurs more defiance from the people. So while the coast cities may seem like a beacon to the future, the rest of the country is in chaos and in big trouble. So much for the Chinese miracle… the real miracle will be if they survive a sustained downturn in the American economy.

Posted by the Shah | Report as abusive
 

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