Here’s what happened to cap-and-trade, and why it’s in deep trouble

November 17, 2009

I am writing a column on this for later today, but I wanted to toss out a few quick thoughts on the state of cap-and-trade. Other than the die-hard greenies, Dems don’t want this bill anymore than Republicans. It is too easy to frame cap-and-trade as both a jobs killer and a distraction from job creation. Actually, some Rs would love for Dems to push this bill since it makes such a great election issue.

But it’s not happening in 2010, which means it not happening during Obama’s term since even under the most optimistic scenario, the Ds will have less control of Congress in 2011 and 2012 than they do now. And under more dire scenarios for the Dems, they lose maybe 4 Senate seats. Do not underestimate the extent to which the Great Recession has affected the issues agenda and political situation in Washington. And an extended period of high unemployment will only exacerbate that. (Bernanke’s speech yesterday was another indication how this is now the new Washington consensus.) The New Normal in economics means a New Normal in politics, too.


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“The New Normal in economics means a New Normal in politics, too.”

Interesting thought, but what does it really mean? Does it mean incumbents are at greater risk? Well, that’s not entirely new, that sort of thing happens periodically. Does it mean the Republicans party is ascendent? Not sure about that, polls still show big negatives for the Republicans. Does it mean conservatism as a political philosophy is ascendent? Maybe, but I dunno about that either.

So it’s not clear to me what the actual politcal implications of the ‘new normal’ are. In fact, my guess is that the new normal will look pretty much the same as the old normal — unless the depth of dissatisfaction with the old spawns a new party. Now, that would be something worth writing about.

Posted by Bill, Fairfax, VA | Report as abusive

I don’t think we’ll see a third party in name, but I think we’ll start to see less cohesion among the parties as canidates spread out indiviually as being liberal-this and conservative-that.

Posted by drewbie | Report as abusive

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Posted by Even The CHINESE Question Obamacare! at Desert Conservative | Report as abusive

Well Obama also sees the writing on the wall in 2012 and will move to use Executive Orders and Agency regulations to circumvent congress on Many issues including Cap and Trade.. The EPA will be used in controlling Carbon without Congressional oversite or approval. Like Muslims, don’t believe a word that comes out of their mouths, watch what they do.. Like Muslims their playbook also tells them to lie to unbelievers

Posted by Ballistic45 | Report as abusive