James Pethokoukis

Politics and policy from inside Washington

Healthcare reform update: It’s all about 60 votes

November 18, 2009

My sources tell me that reconciliation — pushing through HC in the Senate with 51 votes with a special parliamentary procedure — isn’t going to happen. So the big votes will need 60, including just opening debate. And rest assured that if Reid thinks he has 60 to pass, the debate will immediately come to an end.

Keith Hennessey gives his odds update:

I am lowering from 60% to 50% my projection for the success of comprehensive health care reform.

  1. Pass a partisan comprehensive bill through the House and through the regular Senate process with 60, leading to a law; (was 40% –> 30%)
  2. Pass a partisan comprehensive bill through the House and through the reconciliation process with 51 Senate Democrats, leading to a law; (steady at 20%)
  3. Fall back to a much more limited bill that becomes law; (was 20% –> 15%)
  4. No bill becomes law this Congress.  (was 20% –> 35%)

I think there is zero chance a bill makes it to the President’s desk before 2010.  If a bill were to become law, I would anticipate completion in late January or even February. …

I have lowered my projection of Leader Reid succeeding for three reasons:  Pretty much everything has to go right for him to win on cloture in mid-December. He has no more wiggle room on the schedule, and new intra-Democrat policy fights are popping up.

I think his members are going to get beat up about health care and jobs over Thanksgiving recess, then return to Washington to face another bad jobs day Friday the 4th. If moderates demand large substantive concessions for their votes, liberals like Senators Rockefeller and Boxer may refuse. They may tell Reid they will oppose cloture if the bill moves toward the  center, and instead advocate abandoning regular order and starting a clean reconciliation process in January. House liberals might join this effort.

Comments

I doubt this is what people were expected when they elected the ‘post-partisan’ candidate who could bring us together. Imagine if they tried reconcilation, and lost. Washington might not recover for a while.

 

And getting those 60 votes on board with the public option and the success that it’s already been creating in some states. Still we all know that in the end they can get it done. http://cli.gs/23yYaM/

Posted by Stephanie Hunter | Report as abusive
 

I’m hopeful this thing will get killed in the Senate, but have big doubts. The fact that Reid included a public option in the Senate bill suggests to me he has more confidence in getting those 60 votes than the critics are suggesting. Without a public option he could still armtwist liberals by saying it would be restored in conference. But including the public option suggests his fears of losing centrists over that issue may be overblown. For my money, Leiberman is the last best hope of sanity in this matter and his could be the key vote.

Posted by Bill, Fairfax, VA | Report as abusive
 

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