Jon Henke applies his own analysis to the NY-23 race:
The story of NY-23 is not “conservatives beat moderates” or “conservative loses to Democrat”.
Here is OMB Director Peter Orszag at NYU yesterday:
Our fiscal future is so dominated by health care that if we can slow the rate of cost growth by just 15 basis points per year (that is, 0.15 percentage points per year), the savings on Medicare and Medicaid would equal the impact from eliminating Social Security’s entire 75-year shortfall.
Scott Rasmussen crunches the numbers:
As president, Obama lost the support of Republicans in February during the debate over the stimulus package. Over the summer, economic concerns and the health care debate cost the president support among unaffiliated voters. By October, a month-by-month review showed that Obama’s overall job approval had slipped to 48% among Likely Voters.
First, a few obsevations:
1. Democrats are getting hammered in swing state Virginia. It’s not just Bob McDonnell, down ticket, too.
Former Bush WH deputy press secretary Tony Fratto gives it his best shot:
Over the decades, large, complex financial institutions —big banks— have been unquestionably beneficial to the U.S. economy, and to the global economy. Big banks efficiently facilitate cross-border trade and investment on a global scale, resulting in benefits that have consistently accrued to consumers and improved standards of living for people in all markets.
Which one do you believe? John Hussman sketches them out:
1) One possibility, which is clearly the one that Wall Street has subscribed to, is that the recent downturn was a standard, if somewhat more severe than normal, post-war recession; that the market’s recent strength is an indication that it is looking forward to a full “V-shaped” recovery, and that the positive print for third-quarter GDP is a signal that the recession is officially over. Applying the post-war norms for stock market performance following the end of a recession, the implications are for further market strength and the elongation of the recent advance into a multi-year bull market.