James Pethokoukis

Where are the jobs? The bear case on the November jobs report

December 4, 2009

From David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff, of course:

While it is abundantly clear that companies are near the end of the job downsizing phase, there is scant evidence of any renewal in the pace of new hiring. In fact, it is quite the contrary. This assertion is underscored by the fact that both the median (20.1 weeks) and the average (28.5 weeks) duration of unemployment hit new record highs last month. The share of the unemployed that has been looking for work without success for six months or longer also reached an unprecedented 59% last month. We are fairly certain that these folks will have a slightly different take on today’s employment number than the mainstream economics community. In addition, also keep in mind that the employment diffusion index, while improving in November, was still unacceptably low at 40.6. In other words, roughly 6 out of 10 businesses are still rationalizing their staff loads, even if at a less dramatic rate than in previous months.

The case against Bernanke

December 4, 2009

Some self-incriminating evidence (Bernanke in his own words) supplied by David Leonhardt of the NYTimes:

The chart that keeps the WH econ team up at night

December 4, 2009

A nice jobs report. A long way to go, as this chart from Calculated Risk shows:

jobchart

The November jobs report and the 2010 midterms

December 4, 2009

A few thoughts, sports fans:

1)  The drop in the U3 rate is welcome news for the WH, congressional Dems (and US workers, of course). But it is really just a smoothing out of last month’s weird pop from 9.8 percent to 10.2 percent. As Action Economics notes: