James Pethokoukis
Politics and policy from inside Washington
Why the Democrats will lose the House in 2010
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The trend is not the Democrats’ friend. At least not in 2010. The party of the sitting president almost always suffers losses in midterm congressional elections. To that time-tested dynamic now add voter angst about high unemployment, big deficits and controversial legislation. Expect Senate majority leader Harry Reid to lose his effective 60-seat supermajority and Nancy Pelosi to hand the House back to the Republicans. Here’s why 2010 is looking like 1994 all over again:
1. Virginia and New Jersey. Big GOP wins in the gubernatorial races not only highlighted discontent with incumbents by recession-weary voters, they also greatly helped Republicans with candidate recruiting for 2010.
2. History. More big political change isn’t predicated on America rekindling its love for the Grand Old Party. A recent poll had the Republicans finishing a distant third in popularity behind a fictional Tea Party and the actual Democratic Party. Yet American politics has a regular ebb and flow. In 13 of the past 15 midterm elections going back to 1950, the party in control of the White House has lost an average of 22 seats in the House. In 10 of the past 15 midterms the party running the Senate has lost an average of three seats.
3. Mean Reversion. Democrats have a wide field to defend after huge victories in 2006 and 2008. Particularly in the House, there are lots of Democrats in places with a proven willingness to vote Republican. Currently 47 of them are in districts won by both John McCain in 2008 and George W. Bush in 2004. And voters in those districts may be especially unhappy with a Democratic legislative agenda that causes many Americans mixed feelings.
4. Obama-Reid-Pelosi Agenda. A RealClearPolitics aggregation of polling data shows Americans disapprove of healthcare reform by a 51-38 margin. And only a little more than a third think the $787 billion stimulus plan has done much good, according to pollster Rasmussen. There’s also plenty of worry among the electorate that Washington spending is creating a dangerous level of government debt.
5. Rep. Parker Griffith. Griffith, elected in 2008, could be an electoral harbinger. His district, Alabama’s 5th, gave 60 percent of its votes to Bush in 2004, and 61 percent to McCain. He just switched from Democrat to Republican, saying he couldn’t belong to a party that favors healthcare reform that massively expands the role of government. Even though Griffith voted against the stimulus, cap-and-trade and healthcare plans, he clearly felt that guilt-by-party-association threatened his re-election.
6. Unemployment. Underlying voter unease with Capitol Hill is deep concern about unemployment. And that leads to a simple equation: Joblessness drives presidential approval ratings, and it’s those ratings that drive midterm congressional results. Despite a landslide win in 1980, for instance, unemployment approaching 11 percent drove Ronald Reagan’s approval ratings down to the low 40s in November 1982 when Republicans lost 26 House seats. (And only five narrow GOP victories by fewer than 50,000 votes kept the Senate even.)
As unemployment has risen this year, Obama’s approval has steadily eroded to around 50 percent currently. The White House says it doesn’t expect employment growth until the spring. And if even the economy begins to create jobs, the actual unemployment rate could still rise as the long-term unemployed begin to actively seek jobs again and thus start being counted by the Labor Department. It would take a year of 4 percent growth generating 200,000 to 250,000 jobs a month to bring the rate down to 9 percent. And even that would be twice as high as what Americans have been used to during the past two decades.
7. Discontent with Democrats. At the same time, the generic congressional ballot has shifted from a high single-digit Democratic lead to a low single-digit Republican lead as independents veer back to the GOP. What’s more, a recent poll by the liberal Daily Kos blog found just 56 percent of Democrats definitely or probably voting in 2010 vs. 81 percent of Republicans. Note that a new Rasmussen poll has Sen. Ben “60th Vote” Nelson, who won reelection in 2006 with 64 percent of the vote, down 61-30 in a hypothetical 2012 matchup vs. Nebraska Gov. Dave Heineman. Dems in both chambers will surely take note of those numbers. Indeed, the prospect of a terrible 2010 environment has already pushed some veteran Democratic legislators in competitive districts into retirement such as John Tanner of Tennessee and Brian Baird of Washington.
8. Economic Damage. Even if the unemployment rate falls a full percentage point next year, it may not help Democrats much. Americans only slowly regain their economic confidence after a deep recession. When Democrats lost the House and Senate in 1994, the economy had been growing steadily since the nasty 1990-91 downturn and unemployment had fallen sharply, though not fully to its pre-recession levels. Yet 72 percent of Americans at the time still thought the economy was “fair” or “poor,” according to Gallup.
As political forecaster Charlie Cook has noted, what happens in the House depends a lot on there being more Democrat retirements in competitive seats. The GOP needs a 40-seat pickup. The more Dem members that stick, the less likely a changeover. If the numbers start going north of 12-15, a warning signal should sound for Democrats. (In 1994, Democrat departures created 31 open seats, 22 of which were won by the GOP.) For now, Cook sees a possible 20-30 seat pickup in the House for the GOP and four to six in the Senate. (Harry Reid, Blanche Lincoln and Chris Dodd look especially vulnerable). But Cook may be underestimating how the dreadful New Normal in the economy will create a New Normal in politics in 2010.
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Oh Yes. This is going to be fun.
1) Throw the bums out!
2) This phrase ‘New Normal’; Am I the only one heartily sick of it? It is, without question, one of the most defeatist expressions I have ever come across. America can do better, ‘cuz America HAS done better.
Retirements are getting may too much play and Open Seats are given way too much credit. The large number of 1st and 2nd term Dems makes huge retirements (like ’94 impossible) and historically Open Seats are tougher to defend, However the huge number of Freshman and Sophmore Dems who have never won without a tail wing make it likely the percentage of incumbents to lose in ’10 will be far above average.
I theorize that the District, not the incumbent, provide the turnover. Incumbents do have some real advantages in organization and fundraising that a challenger (regardless of incumbant party) doesn’t have, but in the end it is the voters not the candidates that decide elections.
Plus it’s pretty safe to say that except in the blue strongholds people got pretty sick of Obama fast and are going to take it out on his party.
I still think the Reps must give voters a reasons to vote FOR their candidates…not just rely on current discontent with the incompetent and radical Left House. Something like 1994′s Contract With America. The Reps need to offer something positive and hopeful and not just carp and nitpick the insane legislation the Dems are pushing. It’s critical the Reps take back either the Senate or the House. If not, watch for Obama/Pelosi to go all-in in 2011 on their Leftist agenda.
As usual, the Republican spin machine doesn’t bother to mention that in the 2009 mid-term congressional election Republicans lost NY23rd for the first time in 100 years.
Or the big Democratic wins in the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial races during GW Bush’s first midterm elections.
We must take the House or the Senate back in 2010! As JohnR says, ‘If not, watch for Obama/Pelosi to go all-in in 2011 on their Leftist agenda’ and that simply CAN’T HAPPEN if our republic is to survive. This is serious stuff!
You left out National Security.
Personally, I hoping for a wave like ’94, but not 1994. I’m hoping for a wave like 1894 where the Dems lost 125 House seats. Is it possible? Yes. Compare the similarities. The 1894 elections followed the panic of 1893 and unemployment was in double digits. The 2010 election will be following the Panic of 2008 and if unemployment is still over 10%, the Democrats have a major problem. The Democrats won the 2008 congressional elections with a 9% point margin nationwide. 9% was good for a 40 seat margin. Since the 9 point win, generic polling by Rasmussen has been showing an average margin of 6% for the Republicans which is a swing of 15% in 13 months. If the ballot continues to shift at this rate, in 10 months (Nov 08), the Republicans could be sporting a 16-17% margin on election day. This should be good for 125 seats.
how about some insight v. the obvious
1. Call #4 what it is….a radical, left wing agenda supported by a minority of americas
2. Failure to deal with Iran–thankfully, Israel will since spineless took office.
3. Cap and tax (as the Midwest sits under a foot of snow amid global scaming, er warming.
4. Kentucky and Healthcare, healthcare, healthcare….they jammed it down our throats….and a Republican won a STATE seat in a democratic-district in KY by using national issues like healthcare.
gwa
This presidency is effectively over.
Period…
The Democrats and Republicans are all a bunch of back scratching Bureaucrats spending our money foolishly. Throw them all out.
Scott
Re-Elect No One ! !
Both in ’91 & ’08. Democrats used their democratic party left wing to get elected and them once in office as corporatecrats.
Realize that there is no Republican or Democratic Party – the apparent duopoly is false. These are 2 faces of a Corporate Party of America. Both Parties have infrastructures (lawyers/consultants,etc) and need a lot of money to operate. Only 1 group is able to finance those needs -that is corporate america & therefore to get elected whoever runs has to whore themselves out. So no matter what or who you vote for it does not matter.
Only a third/fourth party & public financing of campaigns will change these and it won’t happened until a violent event makes it happen or conversely we have a self-finance logical truly benevolent candidate that is able to spend both parties & fight tooth and nail to ensure a win. Both Dems/Reps organizations would fight for their nice doupoly to the end.
The issue with healthcare is a red herring. True reform would be a expansion of Medicare. Theses “reforms” are ment to sour you so much that any sane politician will not want to touch it for a generation. People will eventually get used to people dying for lack of healthcare like in 3rd world countries. History repeats and so when the next 1918 like flu epidemic comes about something else will be born like it happened in NYC with its clinics & hopsitals.
Obama’s mistake was not being tough with bankers. Everyone saw he was a wuz after that. Remember Machievalli’s rule #1 for a prince – “Fear before respect”.
From someone in New Jersey politics for 20 yrs and not yey indicted..
I know several liberal thinking people that have left the Democratic party this year due to the present Democratic agenda and the spending of money that seemingly can’t be printed fast enough to satisfy the current liberal agenda. I do not think I am the only one seeing this around the country.
We can’t say it often enough. Elections have consequences and this most recent election has more consequences then any other. Those who giddily voted for the “messiah” while reading into him whatever they wanted,are slowly awakening to reality. As a lifelong mental health professional, I watch as voters are increasingly uncomfortable with so much of the promised “change”. Comfort levels are being disturbed. Even the young voters who don’t know what they don’t know, are stirring. Even though they are less reliant and independent then their parents and love what government offers, they are the spoiled who got their way while growing up. Well, their way had better be the lefts way if the left prevails. How do you like that change younguns?
Re Jerzy Machiavelli’s post: Why does the left always come up with foolish arguments?
He say: “Only 1 group is able to finance those needs -that is corporate america & therefore to get elected whoever runs has to whore themselves out. So no matter what or who you vote for it does not matter.”
Corporations are tightly restricted in their ability to make campaign contributions — and corporate executives hesitate to do anything that might offend a customer.
Unions (and trial lawyers) have none of those limitations, and most of the political class never worked in the private sector (except as lawyers).
Instead of living in a “corporate state,” it’s the exact reverse. The hostility to business (and the highest corporate tax rates in the Western world) is why we no longer have a healthy manufacturing sector. Liberals talk about well-paid jobs and act as if they come from government, but in real life do their best to drive them away overseas.
Hi,
Can’t we all agree that we have the worst president in history at the helm now. He is acting like an arrogant spoiled boy.
How can anyone trust this clown, he lies and blame everything on others in order to save his skin.
Take the Clown together with Pelosi and Reid and you will
find an extremely disaster comming up 2010 – 2012?.
Best
capt.BJ
Bitter much? Sadly for all of you conservative posters, Democrats are not only going to hold onto both Houses of Congress, Repugnacan’ts gains will be minimal. Employment will begin to tick up in Spring and rise in Summer. Republican hysteria about his citizenship, his radicalism and his desire to destroy America will all play into Obama’s and the Democrat’s hands. Conservatives will continue to delude themselves into believing that the likeminded 40% of the population who shares their irrational anger constitutes a majority. They will discover how wrong they are on election day.
And then declare their defeat an tremendous victory. What fun!
To Jeff:
Hey pal, have you ever run an election?. Here is how it works. My political workers, contractors, etc give me a donation for my local campaign, they also buy $250 tickets for my fundraising campaign. But guess what- There is a county party organization & other associated groups -having more discreet dinner fundraisers. These are $1000 a tickets. These contractors are exepcted to buy several tables -even if 6 people show up. Get it.
Buddy, Unions are not that powerful or wealthy. They only became powerful when they had the mob’s muscle behind them after they did a devils bargain of mob’s muscle & control for sharing the spoils. For god’s sake stop reading so much propaganda. The money is with whomever wants a contract or something done & that is usually a business interest.
The old mob is essentially gone & so is the union’s power. But I’ll make aprediction, if things keep going the way they are-> 1)Organize crime will make a large resurgence (it will not be italians, but other groups) & 2) Wal-Mart will get unionize in some places, because when they sent their special anti-union lawyer squads to a store. Those lawyers are not going to make it out, without a trip to the morgue or hospital.
There is a TWO word cure for this f**king mess and it is TERM LIMITS! All of them R’s and D’s get corrupted after a few terms in office and no longer represent the people that put them in office. Look at Ben, Big Whore, Nelson.
Need I say more?
It’s heartbreaking…
I worked my fanny off getting Obama elected since his speech at the DNC in 2004. What a mark I was but I have thankfully snapped out of it. I spent way too much money and time but…I will now spend more money and more time to help usher him out beginning with the dispatch of our local representatives which includes Republicans as well and working up to 2012. Our Democratic representatives who are up for re-election in 2010 really have no chance. Especially those representatives who merely voiced two words. Yes to the stimulus. Yes to HR3950. I get it now especially how the healthcare bill came down.
This has split my immediate family, extended family and friends as this Holiday Season thus far has been miserable and made miserable by the constant discussion of Obama’s leadership. They were right and those few of us left were very, very wrong.
I will redeem myself, count on it.
Tina
2010?!?! We can’t wait that long! They’ll have stolen every penny they can get their hands on by then! No! It’s GO TIME! Get out the tar and feathers and hark back to our history by marching down to the Capitol and running these brazen thieves out of D.C. on a rail! Same thing at the state houses! When are Americans going to wake up? They don’t LISTEN TO US! They do whatever enriches them and THEY WILL KEEP DOING IT UNTIL WE PHYSICALLY REMOVE THEM! Think we can’t do it? The Iranians are fighting and dying for their freedom right now! Why can’t Americans do the same?
One last factor, the unexpected. Like what happened on Christmas Day. In this case it didn’t play to Obama’s advantage as it probably will cost him 5 points in his approval rating going into 2010. Obama’s and the Democratic party have set themselves up for unexpected disasters in 2010 and here is how:
1. Releasing dozens of terrorists as Gitmo is wound down offers nothing but disaster on a Christmas Day scale during 2010 or 2011.
2. Economic disaster as public debt becomes a 1000 pound weight around the American economy’s neck and much of the debt held by a communist country looking to rise at the expense of American national interests.
3. Iran could explode in war soon either by using an atomic device or with an Israeli attack. China is Iran’s most strategic ally and will likely react strongly against any serious American sanction or military reaction to Iranian hostilities. Because of number 2, China has lots of leverage against the USA.
4. Acorn and fellow travelers with long associations to Obama are clearly open to criminal behavior. Somewhere along the way there might be an Obama connection, after all, he came from Chicago.
5. Obama himself as he must re-create himself from the Hope N Change candidate to a resolute President in times of war and economic hardship. So far all he is doing is showing weakness on a global scale and that invites other countries to attack American interests.
Even if the Reps do not get 40, as long as they are close, it will hinder the Dems to ram thru anything.
But Reps must work overtime to make this happen.
We did not elect a House of Lords and a King to rule over its subjects!… Barry is a self-serving ego-maniac without a shred of shame or character. And the Liberal controlled Congress and freak show hedonistic WH Administration & Czars are a surreal nightmare.
The Constitution is the people’s contract that established and created a Federal system within a representative government… a Republic. Stop calling the Unites States a democracy! We are a Constitutional Republic! The congressional house & senate representatives serve at the people’s discretion! They are our SERVANTS!
2010 & 2012 NO SURVIVORS! Like Sodom and Gomorrah… Burn the two houses to the ground and start all over!
I thought Professor Obama was going to rub my belly and fill my bank account with cash? Why isn’t this happening?
@ Ken
NY 23 has been relentlessly gerrymandered over the years, and a Democrat held the district as recently as 1992. Democrats have deliberately blurred the issue for various reasons. For example, Doug Hoffmann was reportedly “not from the area.” Even Newt Gingrich made this false claim when defending the RNC and NRCC decisions to fund Dede Scozzafava, a candidate with a record to the left of Democrat Bill Owens and who eventually endorsed him when she could not win. The previous representative John M. McHugh, who was appointed Secretary of the Army, has an extremely conservative record and was more in line with what the voters wanted. This district will likely revert to Republican control in 2010.
D.C. would prefer a tyrannical environment wherein they make the people dependent on the state. We will not have it. Yes, some have been made to be too vulnerable and naive to fight this dependency, but most Americans, who know their worth, will fight this monster of the state. D.C. you have pissed on the American people for the last time and we are now coming back for revenge.
WE WILL NOT BE AFRAID OF YOU. YOU SHALL COME TO FEAR EVER DISAPPOINTING THE PEOPLE OF THIS COUNTRY AGAIN!
A few more factors that were not mentioned in your piece:
1.) Terrorism – the latest attempt and the administration’s bungling response will not be regarded well by most Americans.
2.) Higher taxes – if ObamaCare passes, a whole slew of taxes will go into effect in 2010 while a majority of the bill’s “benefits” will not be seen until 2013
3.) More very liberal legislation in 2010 – amnesty, pro-union. These, if pushed, will be seen as counter to an economic recovery. For example, the argument will be that Americans need the jobs that Mexicans are taking. Pro-union legislation will be seen as anti-business. Anti-business is, at its heart, anti-recovery. Not a good perception, especially in an election year.
This former democrat’s new year’s resolution is to Throw The Bums Out. I will work for and monetarily support candidates in my state and other states who run against incumbents who voted for healthcare, for stimulus, or for cap & trade. I’m sure this year will only give more names to add to the list.
Hey Ken one big problem with your “analysis” of the Hoffman NY-23 race…the Republicans skipped the Primary process when they put Scozzy up for their candidate. Even when a bunch of absentee votes went for Scozzy because at the time she was the R candidate Hoffman almost won anyway. The Republicans heard from us and have said that there will be primaries from now on in these races so that a NY-23 won’t happen again. Funny how your “analysis” failed to mention this. Facts are funny things and you Dem loonies always like to write the narrative without the facts in place. That’s how you got the big zero elected last year. We are coming in 2010 and 2012, it will be a landslide, and you can either get out of the way or be trampled. Oh and this so-called Healthcare Bill will be repealed. The electorate is ticked, our side will be voting next year in huge numbers and this freight train is coming, count on it!
Don’t send them a message…send them HOME.
Why shouldn’t the Democrats lose the House? By this time next year, another million or two Americans will have lost theirs.
But electing Republicans instead will be like trading an undignified case of HIV for one of full-blown AIDS. Something different needs to happen, and fast.
Tired of the MSM and demwits telling us who are candidates will be; therefore we MUST have CLOSED PRIMARIES!
DEMONRATS: have ruined every AmeriKan city they rule over,eg’s. Detroit, Cleveland, Toledo, Chicago, are all Hell’s Outhouse’s due ENTIRELY to Demonrats ,policy of TAX and WASTE and TAX and Waste some more. These dissolute scum cannot even prevent 30 MILLION illegal aliens from taking jobs from AmeriKan’s and greatly DEPRESSING wages !! Something the unions and Demonrats tolerate as long as the illegals VOTE 65 % for DEMONRATS !! Pathetic and criminal, indeed ! PLUS: If you don’t buy into ObaMao’s scare plan, you can befined and go to PRISON ! Ahhh, the AmeriKan way…DEMONRAT STYLE !!
Changing the ratio or R’s to D’s in D.C. is only a tiny, and at best mixed, step. Republicans are no strangers to spending other people’s money and controlling choices that are none of their business.
The country needs a genuine revolution in thinking. The first rumblings of that are beginning. How far and how fast it will grow is anybody’s guess at this point.
If this lack of health and care bill gets passed, buried in it is the mandate that no large part of the bill can ever be revoked, including the taxes. How is this Constitutional I can’t imagine? This group of crooks is too dangerous to our country to be left in place.
from your keyboard to God’s ears.
This presumes that the Republicans don’t run extremists, and right now, the tea baggers are going to pick off far too many sensible conservatives in primaries. The Dems won’t lost more than 15 seats because the GOP candidate in many races with be Neanderthals.
Obama’s socialist pacifist ideology and that of the Congressional Dems blinds all of them to the real evils that they themselves are supporting. Economically, they are socialists as Care, Tax and Spend, Amnesty, and even their inane foreign policy toward Islamofascist jihadists in the ME as well as Asia. No wonder that people that have not been aware are waking up to this faux CIC and Messiah and his Dem minions in Congress. It is still tax and spend. It is still Keynesian debt and deficits into the next millenium. It is still thinking the only real evils are capitalism, conservatives, Christians, and not PC baloney. I pray that this author is correct but never underestimate the flacks that vote Dem if they keep lying and all the fault is , BUSH.
“Conservative” Democrats are an oxymoron that nobody will believe in any more. Everybody now knows they are really liberals in drag. As a result, they will go the way of the dodo bird and become extict shortly. Without “Conservative” Democrats, the House and Senate both change hands.
You forget: We will relieve all of the “terror”and “Fear” and “incompetence” of Bush before we go to vote. Life is so much better now!!! I don’t think the Dems will loose the house. Cute idea, but not based in anyone’s reality except goofies.
Show me a blue dog democrat and I’ll show you an Obama-Pelosi liberal agenda enabler
all the GOP has to do to win big this year is to stop acting like a bunch of redneck peckerwood slimeballs.
That’s all they have to do.
Let’s see if they can do it.
Here’s the best part. If the Repubs win in part on a promise to get spending under control, they will be foolish enough to attempt to get spending under control. Obama will then clean their clocks in 2012.
The best way to tick off American voters is to implement the agenda they elect you to implement. Hilarious.
Obama supporters keep up the delusion that passing anything healthcare related will save them in 2010 so as not to repeat 1994. I’m afraid they miscalculated the backlash coming. It is going to be at least as bad for the dems as was 1994. The anger is much much higher now then in 1994.
Sorry to say James – the Dems and DNC will probably hang on to the House in 2010. We as a people are more concerned with what the government gives us and how much our cable bills will be. Which means that we can be bought off just like Nelson and Landrieu.
Bennie – keep buying those T-Bonds and keep the presses running! We got the Chinese to pay!
Come to think of it. If I, as a normal US constituent, showed up at my Senators office one day with a suitcase full of promises and $50M or $100 Million for his vote – what would the courts do with me?
What happened to the term – unconscionable ?
My consolation last Nov was that some people do learn and a year or so of seeing what BO and company meant by “Change” and “Hope” would be enough to do the required teaching for the teachable.
The lovely PROMISES of socialism demigogs is so enticing, so alluring that each generation seems to have to try it. BO is a worthy successor to Carter, when he and his present majority is gone it will be a lot more years before we have enough new young voters to push the next over the top. If we survive this time.
And, sadly, the Dems don’t have a lock on all the big spending, power grabbing, egotistical, politically driven socialist/statists.