James Pethokoukis

One more reason why 2011 looks bad

December 28, 2009

Interesting analysis from Deutsche Bank, especially the last part which I put in bold (via Econbrowser):

Paul Krugman and the New Normal

December 28, 2009

Paul Krugman makes his case for the New Normal:

1) Earlier recessions were preceded by sharp rises in interest rates, as the Fed tried to choke off inflation. This produced a housing slump, with a lot of pent-up demand; when the Fed decided that we had suffered enough, it relented, and both housing and the economy sprang back.

What’s $62 trillion in deficits anyway?

December 28, 2009

The great Andrew Biggs makes a great point about the Medicare advisory commission in the Senate healthcare bill, a cost-control measure that Peter Orszag calls one of the most potent in the bill:

Big Government and the Big Split

December 28, 2009

The WSJ nicely sums up 2008:

To prevent crumbling housing and credit markets from sinking the broad economy, the Bush and Obama administrations and the Federal Reserve spent, lent and invested more than $2 trillion on one initiative after another. If you owned a credit card or a money-market fund, had a savings account, bought a Dodge pickup or even a hunting rifle, or borrowed to buy a home or finance a small business, odds are good that the U.S. stood behind you or the firm that served you.

Using Fannie and Freddie to influence the 2010 midterm elections

December 28, 2009

So the Treasury Department announces unlimited support for Fannie Mae Freddie Mac for the next thee years. I think Wall Street Pit raises a very provocative point on this might all relate to the 2010 election:

Surprise! Gaming CBO rules masks how healthcare reform may actually make deficit worse

December 23, 2009

[See update at bottom] A group of Republican senators, led by Jeff Sessions and Judd Gregg, are accusing the Democrats of double-counting Medicare tax hikes and spending cuts as both extending the solvency of the program and paying for expanded healthcare coverage. So they asked the CBO for its opinion. Here is the CBO’s response:

Watch out for (yield) curves: Kudlow vs. Goldman

December 23, 2009

The super-steep yield curve is hinting at a powerful recovery in 2010, so says Larry Kudlow:

Why surtaxes are foolish

December 23, 2009

A surtax to pay for healthcare? Not good. Former Bush White House economist Alan Viard explains:

Democratic congressman Parker Griffith to switch to Republican

December 22, 2009

Blue Dog Parker Griffith of Alabama is making the switch:

POLITICO has learned that Rep. Parker Griffith, a freshman Democrat from Alabama, will announce today that he’s switching parties to become a Republican. According to two senior GOP aides familiar with the decision, the announcement will take place this afternoon in Griffith’s district in northern Alabama. Griffith’s party switch comes on the eve of a pivotal congressional health care vote and will send a jolt through a Democratic House Caucus that has already been unnerved by the recent retirements of a handful of members who, like Griffith, hail from districts that offer prime pickup opportunities for the GOP in 2010.