James Pethokoukis

Where are the jobs? The bear case on the November jobs report

December 4, 2009

From David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff, of course:

While it is abundantly clear that companies are near the end of the job downsizing phase, there is scant evidence of any renewal in the pace of new hiring. In fact, it is quite the contrary. This assertion is underscored by the fact that both the median (20.1 weeks) and the average (28.5 weeks) duration of unemployment hit new record highs last month. The share of the unemployed that has been looking for work without success for six months or longer also reached an unprecedented 59% last month. We are fairly certain that these folks will have a slightly different take on today’s employment number than the mainstream economics community. In addition, also keep in mind that the employment diffusion index, while improving in November, was still unacceptably low at 40.6. In other words, roughly 6 out of 10 businesses are still rationalizing their staff loads, even if at a less dramatic rate than in previous months.

The case against Bernanke

December 4, 2009

Some self-incriminating evidence (Bernanke in his own words) supplied by David Leonhardt of the NYTimes:

The chart that keeps the WH econ team up at night

December 4, 2009

A nice jobs report. A long way to go, as this chart from Calculated Risk shows:

jobchart

The November jobs report and the 2010 midterms

December 4, 2009

A few thoughts, sports fans:

1)  The drop in the U3 rate is welcome news for the WH, congressional Dems (and US workers, of course). But it is really just a smoothing out of last month’s weird pop from 9.8 percent to 10.2 percent. As Action Economics notes:

The White House and jobs stimulus

December 3, 2009

From Marc Ambinder:

Really: the White House does not seem to believe that (a) anything sensible to meanginfully reduce the unemployment rate can be proposed, completed and paid for — and executed — by next November. Nothing, in any event, that wouldn’t jeopardize recovery in the long-term. This frustrates people in the party to no end, as well it might.

10 ways to cut the U.S. budget deficit

December 3, 2009

How to put the budget on a “sustainable path” from Jeffrey Frankel of Harvard (some excerpts):

The Bernanke Dilemma

December 3, 2009

BB’s effort to be the charming professor has failed. Only a  fifth of the public supports his renomination. It’s now almost gospel in the GOP (at least outside DC) that the Fed should be abolished. And Democrats are picking their spots for attacks, such as Dodd’s idea for a single regulator and Frank’s idea to neuter the regional bank presidents.

How Obama is freezing the job market

December 3, 2009

Let’s assume that the much-hyped White House “jobs summit” turns out to be a free-flowing exchange of ideas and views. Could happen. If that’s the case, then President Barack Obama shouldn’t be shocked if a few CEOs dare suggest that the sweeping-yet-stalled Obama agenda might … actually … you know … no offense, Mr. President … be contributing to the jobless recovery. (The union and academic invitees will protest mightily, natch.)

Goldman Sachs 2011 forecast would be an absolute disaster for Dems

December 3, 2009

This would be New Normal with extreme prejudice. Bad for Democratic incumbents in the 2010 congressional midterms, but it should make the White House political team nervous as well for 2012. If Goldman Sachs is right, of course. Here is the firm’s 2011 forecast:

Bernanke goes to Capitol Hill

December 2, 2009

The Bernanke confirmation hearing should be a great show, especially after BB’s “speaking truth to power” WaPo op-ed where he went all Michale Corleone on Fed critics: “Senator? You can have my answer now, if you like. My final offer is this: nothing. Not even the Fed audit bill, which I would appreciate if you would kill personally.”  Former Feddies are split on whether that was the right move or if he should have been more conciliatory ….