James Pethokoukis
Politics and policy from inside Washington
9 reasons why the Dec. jobs report is bad news for Dems
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Talk about one last gasp from the horrible year that was 2009. On the political front, the December jobs numbers were terrible news for the White House and congressional Democrats in a midterm election year. Here’s how it plays out:
1. Remember this simple formula: Unemployment drives presidential approval numbers, and presidential approval numbers drive midterm election results.
2. President Barack Obama’s approval numbers are hovering just a tick below 50 percent. Since 1962, the average House midterm loss for the president’s party when his approval is sub-50 percent is 41 seats. The GOP needs 40 to take the House.
3. And make no mistake, the December unemployment numbers were bad both economically and politically. The 85,000 job loss was worse than expected and will be played that way the media. The continuation of double-digit unemployment also resonates with voters. And not a in a good way.
4. Then will come the second-take stories that will notice the shrinking labor force, which dropped by nearly 700,000 from November. Had it stayed stable from last month, the jobless rate would have been 10.4 percent. Had it stayed stable since August, the jobless rate would be 11 percent!
5. But wait, there’s more! The U-6 rate rate which combines the basic jobless rate, discouraged workers, part-timers-who-would-rather-be-full-timers climbed to 17.3 percent. And the average duration of unemployment rose to a record high 29.1 weeks.
6. Also, there is every indication that as the slowly growing economy eventually draws workers back into the labor force, the jobless rate will creep up to new highs. (Big companies remain cautious about hiring, and small biz remains under pressure due to tight capital markets.) The validity of the Obama recovery plan will seriously be cast in doubt.
7. The sickly labor market will also make it that much harder for the White House and Hill Dems to celebrate what is likely to be a brisk upcoming GDP report in the 4-5 percent range. That seems like an abstract number compared to the unemployment rate.
8. Combine a weak labor market – which may appear to be getting worse to voters – with the moribund housing market and rising gas prices, and you have a toxic triple threat that will be poisonous to Democratic incumbents and further drain Obama’s political capital.
9. Also, watch how these numbers play with Senate and House Dems thinking about resigning like Chris Dodd and Byron Dorgan. A big improvement in the jobs numbers might have reassured any worriers that 2010 might not be as tough as some currently think. Now it looks a bit more like the worst fears of Democrats might be realized: losing the House and a half-dozen or more Senate seats.
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The projected growth of GDP at 4-5% is nonsense when so many people can NOT find work. American voters are not going to allow the Criminals in Congress and the White House to continue to DESTROY our economy.
This year is going to be the beginning of a New American Revolution. Professional Politicians, politiskunks that they are, will be swept from office in 2010 and beyond. It’s time for Citizen Politicians to step forth and make the Draconian cuts in Government that will be necessary to begin to get America back on track.
It might not be so bad for them had they pursued policies that make economic sense.
To push a strictly partisan healthcare bill that is opposed by a majority of private sector employers hasn’t helped their case.
“The validity of the Obama recovery plan will seriously be cast in doubt.”
There was a plan? Blowing $787b on anything but the creation of sustainable jobs was a plan?
This year ,we did not get a COLA increase in our SS check.That hurts.What until the Bush tax cuts expire this year.The howls will grow louder.
What we are witnessing is the result of mindset – a mindset which has taken a generation of indoctrination by American voters and their pols.
Such a condition does not turn around easily, especially when said indoctrination continues to be taught in universities and peddled by the mainstream media.
GDP is calculated by adding spending by comsumers, investments by businesses, and spending by Government. The first two certainly haven’t gone up. Reporting growth in GDP when it completely driven by massive Government spending isn’t good news at all.
The Second American Revolution is brewing. We must return to the U.S. Constitution and the limited government of our forefathers! Bring back gold and silver as legal tender (Article I, Section 10).
The greatest success of Obama’s presidency is his War on Jobs.
With incomprehensibly massive deficits he has scared off investment, created great uncertainty about our economic future, and driven capital out of the country. With big new taxes on small business and investors he prevents the capital investment needed to create new jobs. With massive health care costs, threats of forced unionization, and a climate of vindictive regulation he has made to cost of employees unknowable but certain to rise. Obama is waging War on Jobs on many fronts, and succeeding brilliantly.
Think you’re missing the point here. The jobs report is bad for more than just Democratic Party hopefuls, it’s bad for America as a whole. Really, really bad. Handicapping it like a quasi-partisan horse-race only makes matters worse, but thanks for trying.
Let’s get rid of career politicians making their fortune in “public” service. The presidency (thank god) only gets two terms that same should apply to all senators and congressmen. Two terms and they they are out and will have to get a real job.
Public sector employees are just fine with this. They still get their high salaries, work rule protections, and lavish retirements.
I believe its true that the economy must grow by at least 4% per year in order for unemployment to drop by 1% point, ie down to 9%. If so, its likely the “official” unemployment rate will be above 9.0% by November. Unless of course another shock to our country occurs such as a successful airline bombing. That will drive unemployment higher and Obama’s support to near nil.
Anyone want take a bet this President knows how to keep either from occurring?
The system is working folks.
So, a few people can’t find jobs. They’re just not looking hard enough. They’re deadbeats lounging around just to make Barack Obama look bad. Hell, 700,000 of them didn’t even look for jobs so we didn’t count them this go round. That’s why unemployment fell. We’re sweeping the deadbeats under the rug where they belong.
Noticing unemployment and blaming it on Democrats is racism. In fact, all criticism of Barack Obama is racism. He’s black, you know.
“Handicapping it like a quasi-partisan horse-race only makes matters worse, but thanks for trying.
- Posted by The Bell”
The party in power gets punished.
Dumb-ass!
Some more numbers from the report: The number of employed (total jobs) dropped by 589,000 from Nov to Dec. Most did not move to unemployed but dropped out of the labor force. In the past year, (December to December) 5,390,000 jobs have been lost–that is drop in the number of employed. However, there is some good news–the October unemployment rate was revised from 10.2% to 10.1%.
The labor force participation rate has dropped from 66.5% in December 2008 to 64.6% in December 2009. As people lost jobs, many left the labor force. If they had stayed in, being counted as unemployed, the unemployment rate would be 11.6%.
Removing the discouraged workers from the unemployment calculation is great for the party in power as it understates true unemployment misery. When the economy starts growing, those folks come back into the labor force, get jobs and make the unemployment rate look good, still good for the party in power.
Removing discouraged workers(age 18-50) is a fraudulent way to game the numbers.
“The 85,000 job loss was worse than expected and will be played that way the media.”
the msm is going to deflate obama?
the meme they have gone with is that he saved us from the depression. (in my muddled mind, I remember that TARP occurred before he was even elected, so the only action for which he can be credited is the 787 billion dollar stimulus program.)
it is funny how he will get credit for bringing us back from the brink, despite the general consensus forecast that we would be in positive gdp growth by 3/4 q 2009, days before his inauguration.
We must have government that stops stealing our property and our life from us. Every bit as important: there needs to be a conviction among a majority of Americans that taking of my money to give it to someone else is still theft.
Unemployment is as high as it is precisely because government has its hands out to individuals and business always: one is open waiting to receive the other pointing a gun at you. Ninety percent of what is stolen from you he keeps, ten percent he gives to charity.
Corporates which ship jobs abroad should be taxed heavily so that they hire people locally. Capital being invested overseas should be taxed so that it gets directed into local industry.
Unfortunately, this is exactly what the progressives are wanting. They want (nay, NEED) things to be this bad so they can seem like Knights on Chargers, coming to save us all from evil Capitalism. The more they can make us suffer, the more we are dependent on them for their handouts and the more power they can pretend they have. Read Glenn Beck’s “Common Sense” and you’ll fully understand that progressives are doing this ON PURPOSE. And getting away with it too.
Anyone take note that the economy, financial sector and jobs all started their dives off their respective cliffs in 2007 and 2008? This after six years of dominating Republican policies. Didn’t work so well did they? The same can be said of the middle & final years of the Reagan/Bush era. (coincidence?)
September 30, 2009 saw the end of the last remnant of the Bush stamp on our economy (end of the fiscal year which was passed the preceding year).
The right wingers are fighting hard to re-write history and frame the entirety of our current mess on Obama and the Dems.
Understanding how government works is as important as understanding democracy.
The eight years of Republican leadership helped get us here, make no mistake. The past 20 years of Republican leadership has been the root cause of our exploding national debt. (I defy you to look it up) No tax and spend has been their practice, while their mantra has been less government and low taxes.
Doublespeak champs = Republicans
Pragmatic leaders = Democrats
60 years ago Americans were asked to pay for their entitlements and their government at far greater rates than we do today. (look up our tax history).
Man up America, sinch up the belt and support your country.
The administration has just announce much tougher smog rules that will cost billions. The Department of the Interior just said they are going to make it harder to drill for oil and gas on federal lands. The EPA plans to cripple American business to stop the fictitious “global warming”. The Bush tax cuts end next year. Why would a business hire anyone right now?
Oh let’s create some more jobs, by more EPA rules, closing more land to resource development, and by not providing leadership. Our Government is in failure mode, led by people who don’t have a clue and who don’t ask the right people. I have given up on Congress and the Adminitstration. The Republicans surely can’t fix it. Same old ideas from the same old worn out polititians. (including Sarah)
Important safety tip for Barack Obama (drawn from the experience of guerrilla warfare):
“If you’re not winning, you’re losing.”
The smart money says that by next fall, ceteris paribus, Obama’s approval number will be hovering at a toxic 40% and unemployment will still be at least 9%–and that’s being optimistic.
Assuming this (and, yes, I know it’s a long way to November), we will likely witness a wipeout of Democrats–at all levels of government–that will make the Custer Massacre look like a Boy Scout jamboree.
The economy under the Democrats is an Obamanation!
When you have a government bailing out large failing industries with tax payers money, you no longer have capitalism. You have socialism.
You’re paying.. EITHER WAY for something that you’ve voted that you don’t want with your cash.
Of course, in America, this socialism is only for elites.
Shove it down our throats in 2009 and we’ll shove it up your a.. in 2010. It will be interesting to see what happens with the elections. I am so happy THAT I CAN BE THE ONE TO finally say…DON’T BLAME ME…I DIDN’T VOTE FOR HIM!!!
Wasted stimulus money, you can’t give the money to the rich and expect them to provide more jobs! DUH! You give the money to everyday Americans and let it trickle up NOT down! $50,000 should have been given to E”very American Citizen”, that way they could have paid off their bills & mortgages with the money. By doing that the banks would be out from under a lot of debt they were suffering from. instead the bankers saw the stimulus money coming so they went on a spending binge knowing the Taxpayers money would bail them out from the Overpaid CEO’s with millions in “PERFORMANCE” bonus’s…I always a “Performance Bonus” was something you “Earned” by bring in more money for a company, and not by bankrupting the company you work for & defrauding the government! These people should & must go to PRISON!
Wasted stimulus money, you can’t give the money to the rich and expect them to provide more jobs! DUH! You give the money to everyday Americans and let it trickle up NOT down! $50,000 should have been given to “Every American Citizen”, that way they could have paid off their bills & mortgages with the money. By doing that the banks would be out from under a lot of debt they were suffering from. Instead the Movers & Shakers saw the stimulus money coming so they went on a spending binge knowing the Taxpayers money would bail them out from the Overpaid CEO’s with millions in “PERFORMANCE” bonus’s…I always thought a “Performance Bonus” was something you “Earned” by bring in more money for a company, and not by bankrupting the company you work for & defrauding the government! These people should & must go to PRISON!
Banks who are receiving the lowest interest rates in near history via the fed refuse to help you or your family. In truth they couldn’t give a flying you-know-what about you or your situation.
Then you have the guys that say “tax the rich corporations” to show what limitations their intellectual and financial failures presented them and why they failed. They don’t understand that Dad’s savings is from owning parts of those evil corporations so that he pays tax on anything he earns from them after governement has taken from him through the corporation in addition to Dad paying his lazy ass money for school at 35 and to sit around doing nothing. Mom also owns shares that he wants more money taken by the government in addition to always nagging her for money while living in the basement!
My friends, my parents, my neighbors, my firemen, policemen own shares of stock in corporations – which are evil that should have more of their money taken and given to you – you dead beat whose envious of everyone else who goes out there and works and takes risks with their own money and property? Not you, you lazy bum who wants to tax everything more!
If Americans are dumb enough to put the republicons back in office this November after the damage they did for 8 years; it will be the end of the US.
The republicon party of Palin and Limbaugh will finish the destruction or the USA started by GWB. Haliburton will be your new leader, more of our hard earned capital will head to China while the rebuplicons laugh all the way to the bank. The citizens of the US will need to get used to playing second fiddle on the world stage as we sink into irrelevance.
The rebpulicons seems to have the attention span of cockroaches.
Notice how Republican supporters talk in vague terms?
Notice how there is no concrete factual information?
Notice how they offer zero suggestions to help with matters, but spew vitriol and veiled threats?
America was at its greatest when its citizens sacrificed for the greater good, together. There was a collective understanding that we stand and fall together.
The party of NO, the party of finger pointing and fear and anger has no place in leadership for the future of this country.
The Beckians/TeaBaggers will buy gold and silver and stock up on ammunition, and they will continue to ratchet up the talk of revolution and second civil war (like that will solve our problems…really?), and the “human children” as Hitler described will follow unwittingly.
The rest of us need to roll up our sleeves and get to working out the problems and sacrifice as needed to help ALL OF US find a better tomorrow.
The American people want politicians to represent OUR interests, not theirs. We elected them to WORK for us. We expect better of THEM, and want them to be good stewards of our resources. We don’t want them moving our jobs out of the country or disincenting businesses to invest and grow.
http://theillinoisguy.wordpress.com/2010 /01/05/fair-value/
These postings just demonstrate how stupid most Americans are. You get the government you deserve, folks!
Democrats, get ready to reap the whirlwind
Why cant you libs just accept the fact the liberal ecomonics is a disaster?
Thanks Grinch, that really helps. Excellent input.
Look up the history of our national debt and the relationship to rates of taxation and presidential terms since Carter.
Republicans have sold our souls to a devil we’ve supported called deferring our debt to some other generation. Tipled under Reagan/Bush, more than doubled under Bush II. Astronomical. They’ve also supported the exodus of US jobs (called outsourcing so US stocks pay better dividends). They’ve also supported the technology and manufacturing give away to China (Communist China that is)…since Nixon.
Call it the Whimpy syndrome: “I’ll gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today.” or call it no tax and spend, corporate welfare, whatever works…
It’s easy and popular to run under a “we won’t tax anyone” platform, but reality is there is no gain without effort or pain (i.e. paying for what is owed)
Gues what folks? Tuesday has come, and it’s time to start paying.
Let’s also add to the fact that this administration appears dramatically more incompetent when each and every release of the job statistics in the press (and constant revisions of them a week or two later) are always called “unexpected”. You can’t blame the other guy for your incompetence of not knowing it’s going to happen for 12 months. Especially when elected officials were elected as the experts to fix the problems. Members of both parties will pay the ultimate price for that. And let’s state the unspoken obvious word that goes with this for the President: “one-termer”.
The “Upstanding Brother” who writes confuses the old USSR, Maoist China and Pol Pot’s Cambodia with the United States of America. The “Upstanding Brother” has never really run anything a day in his life. He gets “refunds” of money he has never paid in taxes and wants everyone else to support him and those like him.
America was never a collectivist system. Marxism, socialism and communism that enforces it – it demands sacrifices of its people for its own sake. When Americans pulled together for “the greater good” it was the greater good of beating back an immediate threat of tyranny. To that do we allied ourselves with a tyrant who “sacrificed” 25,000,000 souls for the “common good.”
We, fortunately used American Know-How to build better machines to preserve our “collective” belief that each human life is sacred and to beat back tyrants of Europe and Japan. Unfortunately, though, we had to ally ourselves with Stalin – who over the course of Marxist “common good” murdered a huge percentage of Soviet people as did Mao in his China and Pol Pot in Cambodia for the same reasons of supporting Marxist states.
You want facts: You aren’t paying taxes to Haliburton. Your job is going “overseas” because government wants an ever larger piece of a pie they believe should be theirs – even though they didn’t do anything to earn it – kind of like you – you believe everyone else should pay to support your lazy ass. It’s not Haliburton, it’s not Cheney, Bush or Reagan: It’s the man in the mirror who doesn’t have enough character to demand that government stop stealing from others to support him rather than coming to grips that he, if he loves freedom and liberty, is made by God to be responsible for himself and his family.
Government steals from us, the banks are encouraged by the government to steal from us. Incentive for business to stay is when there is no more thievery. A government not for the people is a tyrant – a government feared is not by the people.
NOBODY (middle class) can afford to be a Dem…unless you live by government entitlements. And just watch that group grow and grow and grow.
When did a news organization such as Reuters and others become a talking arm of the GOP. Really?!? Health care reform is supposed to take billions off of our deficit and help create new jobs, etc. I think in lieu of having tax breaks for the poor and middle class has actually scared supposed media moguls into reporting things that run contrary to the American people’s true interests…the fact is, unemployment is being felt all over the world…the GOP was in the majority in power for fifteen years, what did they do? Cheney openly admitted he did nothing about the economy (or much else) before leaving office prior to the Obama administration and the democratic majority…don’t tell me THAT helped and the party of NO has basically done NOTHING the last year, except hate monger, scapegoat, lie, distort, mislead, connive, etc. the American people for their own gain…I can see that the media, along with Reuter’s, cannot be trusted…I see this is another ploy to get the GOP back into power and extend those expired Bush tax breaks to the wealthy, powerful…including the big media corporations.
You make some excellent points, but dude, calm down! This piece is full of grammatical errors. Breathe, breathe!
Businesses are not hiring because
A. they don’t know what’s going to happen.
B. Whatever happens they are certain the government is going to be taking more of what they earn.
It really is that simple.
The “stimulus” was one big pay off with OUR money. I looked up the figures for my county and there was 1! “shovel ready” project that involved a two block street in a town of less than 2 thousand. The vast majority of the money went to the school districts and colleges. Which you could argue the merits of, but it certainly doesn’t create any jobs.
I find it pathetic really that the die-hard Progressives are still spewing the same tired rhetoric when most Americans are waking up and well aware of what has taken place.
Nice FEDUP. Excellent input. Perfectly illustrates the 4:33 point and why every Neo-con should better understand history through the lens of reality, not what Palin/Gingrich/Beck/Limbaugh (core Republican leaders) try to pass off as reality.
Two major recessions post Republican presidencies directly linked to failed “trickle down” policies and exponential debt and you still believe the hype?
Think of that guy on your block who has the best house, car, clothes and toys. You know the one. The guy who’s job isn’t sufficient to pay for any of it. The guy who puts it all on credit. He’s the one that used his inflated home equity to buy that new boat and cabin in the woods. You know the one who now gets all of the collection calls, who lost his health insurance and has gone bankrupt because he can’t pay for his last bypass surgery. That guy?
That guy is America.
Republicon artists sell a different story and feed the anger and hate machine full of what it wants to hear.
Wake up human children and see what continues to be perpetrated on your catatonic souls.
“It’s the man in the mirror who doesn’t have enough character to demand that government stop stealing from others to support him rather than coming to grips that he, if he loves freedom and liberty, is made by God to be responsible for himself and his family.”
-Amen!
why does it matter which side screwed it up? we know both sides are corrupt. too many politicians making out from lobbyist $$ and paybacks. seems like we need to get all of them out and start all over w/term limits, new ppl who aren’t corrupt, new ppl like everyone on this forum — at least we care enough about what is happening.
stop bailing out banks who won’t help any of us at all! if TARP $ is being paid back, why can’t we give all Americans their own bailouts?
A few months ago somebody tried to persuade me that Obama and the Democrats were deliberately sabotaging everything they could in the hopes that “the system” would finally come crashing down. They know very well that they are going to be unpopular and lose a lot of seats in Congress, but to them it will be worth it. They assume that out of the chaos that ensues will emerge a European welfare state, not a rebirth of evil liberty and capitalism. I told the guy he was crazy.
But now, I’m not so sure.
Census hirings may be the saviour for a couple of months..
This presidency is effectively over.
Period…
George Washington called government a neccessary evil.
The problem with Progressivism is they see government as a force for good in the world. They are tragically mistaken as has been amply demonstrated repeatedly throughout history.
GW also said “Government is not reason; it is not eloquent; it is force. Like fire, it is a dangerous servant and a fearful master.”
Let’s take that analogy a bit further. A campfire is useful for heat, for cooking, to scare away wild animals. But outside the boundaries it can start a brushfire, which unchecked, can become a forest fire and destroy everything in it’s path.
The Constitution was created as a boundary around government. I’m afraid it has jumped the boundaries, hopefully now that the populace has started paying attention, we can stamp out the brushfire and get it back to it’s place.