James Pethokoukis

Scott Brown the Black Swan

January 20, 2010

Ed Yardeni expands on my theme:

The political upset in Massachusetts yesterday may very well be one of those bullish Black Swans. In his 2007 book on this subject, Nassim Nicholas Taleb explained: “What we call here a Black Swan (and capitalize it) is an event with the following three attributes. First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility. Second, it carries an extreme impact. Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable.”

Brown win could spark Obama war on Wall Street

January 20, 2010

Scott Brown’s stunning capture of the Massachusetts Senate seat held for decades by Ted Kennedy was a political black swan, a near-unpredictable event.