James Pethokoukis

Politics and policy from inside Washington

CBO paints nightmare scenario for Democrats in 2010

Jan 26, 2010 18:06 UTC

According to the new CBO economic and budget forecast,  the US economy will grow at just 2.2 percent next year, keeping unemployment above  10 percent. In fact, it has the jobless rate averaging 10.1 percent vs. 9.3 percent in 2009. As the CBO puts it:

First and most important, output is expected to grow fairly slowly in this recovery. Following the two previous severe recessions in the postwar period, output rebounded particularly rapidly, as did employment. Real GDP grew by 6.2 percent in the four quarters following the 1973–1975 recession and by 7.7 percent in the same period following the 1981–1982 recession. In both instances, all of the jobs lost during the recession were regained within four quarters. In contrast, GDP rose modestly and employment remained much weaker following the two most recent recessions.

Employment changed little during the four quarters following the 1990–1991 recession, when real GDP rose by 2.6 percent. And employment fell by more than 1 million in the six quarters following the 2001 recession, when real GDP grew at an average annual rate of 2.1 percent.

COMMENT

4 ways to grow GDP close to 6% and to decrease unemployment by 4 pts

1. Capital gains tax cut to effective rate of 10% on all asset classes
2. Incentivize promising job growth industries such as healthcare. Instead of crippling healthcare with burdensome regulation and government control, enable the industry by offering incentives for creation of self funded, self directed medical savings accounts. Other promising sectors are energy – export natural gas and other commodities to developing nations.
3. Dramatically reduce non-critical federal spending. Cut most foreign aid other than spending that is critical to national defense.
4. Across the board sustained coordinated income tax cut

Posted by dutchboyinvestor | Report as abusive

The Obama Freeze

Jan 26, 2010 15:58 UTC

A few thoughts on the Big Budget Freeze:

1) Estimated annual savings of $25 billion over the next decade aren’t much when annual budget deficits will likely average a trillion dollars.

2) The freeze would use current spending levels, elevated to fight the recession, as a reference point. The stimulus gets locked in!

3) The 2011 budget deficit, according to the Congressional Budget Office, will be $980 billion, or 6.53 percent of GDP. With the Obama freeze, the deficit would be 6.43 percent of GDP.  Rounding error!

And while I am on the topic, instead of a budget commission, I would prefer a commission on how to boost economic growth.

COMMENT

The “freeze” is the latest scene in the Impressionist Lanscape.

We will see dozens of similar ploys, all designed to hazily paint the marxist as the people’s friend. Meanwhile, he will continue to undermine the country by leveraging the most powerful position in the world for 7 more years.

They no doubt are angling to keep their majorities in the November elections, but it isnt likely they think that is critical. No matter what happens with legislation, they will be working their magic with executive orders and by stocking the bureaucracy with true believers.

But don’t worry, Lenin afficionadoes!! They won’t make the mistake again of praising Mao in public.

Posted by proreason | Report as abusive
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