James Pethokoukis

According to the new CBO economic and budget forecast,  the US economy will grow at just 2.2 percent next year, keeping unemployment above  10 percent. In fact, it has the jobless rate averaging 10.1 percent vs. 9.3 percent in 2009. As the CBO puts it:

First and most important, output is expected to grow fairly slowly in this recovery. Following the two previous severe recessions in the postwar period, output rebounded particularly rapidly, as did employment. Real GDP grew by 6.2 percent in the four quarters following the 1973–1975 recession and by 7.7 percent in the same period following the 1981–1982 recession. In both instances, all of the jobs lost during the recession were regained within four quarters. In contrast, GDP rose modestly and employment remained much weaker following the two most recent recessions.

Employment changed little during the four quarters following the 1990–1991 recession, when real GDP rose by 2.6 percent. And employment fell by more than 1 million in the six quarters following the 2001 recession, when real GDP grew at an average annual rate of 2.1 percent.