James Pethokoukis

With healthcare on ice, financial reform is the hottest game in town. Now Dodd is trying to bypass Shelby to somehow gin up a bipartisan bill with Corker –  who takes the issue extremely seriously. A few thoughts:

1) A CFPA is still the stickler. GOP, including Corker probably, will only accept a non stand-alone regulator will narrow rule-writing and enforcement powers. But  CFPA is dominant issue for Obama WH.

2) Corker is more easily undercut by McConnell than old bull Shelby. If McConnell doesn’t want a bill, there will not  be a bill.  At this point, the smart betting is that GOP views denying Dems a victory more important than anti-populist backlash for opposing reform. They will label it a bailout bill if there is even a hint at giving Treasury TARP 2.0 powers. But if it is watered-down enough, it can pass.

3) If a Dodd-Corker bill gets to the floor, both Left and Right will push a flurry of amendments that they would’t try with Dodd-Shelby. Should be a chaotic mess.

4) Looks like the Volcker rule isn’t going anywhere.