James Pethokoukis

Politics and policy from inside Washington

Unemployment and the 2010 midterms

February 22, 2010

Charlie Cook has it exactly correct in this piece of analysis:

I’ve spent the last couple of days talking to some of the brightest Democrats in the party that are not in the White House. And it’s very hard to come up with a scenario where Democrats don’t lose the House. It’s very hard. Are the seats there right this second? No. But we’re on a trajectory on the House turning over….
There are nine months, certainly things could happen, but the odds of unemployment being below 9 percent are minimal by the time of this election. We’re probably going to have a year of basically, more or less, 10 percent unemployment, which hasn’t happened since the Great Depression. I mean, in fact, in an even-numbered year there’s only been one month of double-digit unemployment in the post-War era. One month. And now we’re going to have probably about a year.

Me: Unemployment is The Variable. Anything other than a sharp drop is terrible news for Democrats. And there seems little chance the US economy will generate the level of economic growth this year necessary to generate hundreds of thousands of job per month.

Comments

Actually, I would argue more than unemployment it is the electorate’s perception of the economy and of the Democrats’ handling of it. Recessions make it more likely that the President’s party will lose seats, but more than anything public perception ultimately decides how bad things will be mid-term wise.

 

Dear friend,
You have already appreciated of my new found theory of world economics by email,and i acknowledged it.
Todays writing on America!s ruling parties pros and cons,likely to lose charm,popularity from Americans are imminent.
On any democratic elections, many political leaders knew very well on their present anger, failure of their expectations from ruling parties and these known thoughts will convert and give more mileage to upcoming political parties.
Here,Democratic party had en cashed it to their favor.
Now, true color comes out.
Daily, i am reading, and knowing from American friends, and relatives from overseas on America!s latest economic scenes.
Some despair had already on Americans faces.
What to say an end to this topic.
We hope that, they will do some serious introspections,analysis and where,what went wrong and for quick damage control exercises for any further set back.
Time has come to learn from India,China, South Korea,Brazil,Russia!s progress on their economic upbeat,consolidation, and growing their export,IT sectors and more job oriented schemes to jobless segments.
Best wishes to you,your family and to this great news provider to entire world.

 

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