The 290k increase in jobs is great news for the WH and congressional Democrats. The rising unemployment rate, from 9.7% to 9.9%, is not. Yes, it reflect workers moving back into the workforce, but it is still a lousy headline number. So, too, the rise in the broad U-6 unemployment number to 17.1%. The good news also gets drowned out by the big drop in the stock market and trouble with EU sovereign debt. Even if Greece’s problems do not metastasize, they still provide unsettling headlines for U.S. voters. Like something is still not right in the world. Then, of course, you still have the moribund U.S. housing market and all that evaporated net wealth. Stronger growth may be enough to keep Republicans from capturing the House and Senate, but big gains nonetheless.
That bankers disdain their new Washington overlords is no surprise. To many of them, Congress is plagued by “unnerving ignorance” and a refusal to admit its own role in the financial crisis. At least that is how a controversial JPMorgan report puts it. Impolitic perhaps, but not inaccurate.
Some illumination on Greece. First, The Great One, Larry Kudlow:
Merkel and other European leaders would like the IMF to be the fiscal-discipline policeman for Greece and the rest of southern Europe. But as Nobelist Robert Mundell has argued, while the unified and fixed exchange rate of the euro currency system, along with liberalized trade, has been good for economic growth, things have broken down with the failure of the so-called fiscal-stability pact that was never enforced.
The good folks at the Heritage Foundation alert me to a House bill proposed by Republicans Jim Jordan and Jason Chaffetz: Here is what H.R. 5209 would do: 1) Eliminate the tax on capital gains; 2) Reduce corporate income tax to 12.5 percent; 3) Kill the death tax; 4) Immediate expensing of business expenses; 5) Reduce payroll tax by half for 2010.
I will say this: As much as I press WH officials to take a victory lap on the economy, they want no part of that — especially not with unemployment at these high levels and the evolving EU debt crisis. David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff gives some more reasons for caution:
Some Democrats seem to have no problem raising the cost of capital. Dividend taxes rates are scheduled to triple, while capital gains rates will only increase by a mere 60 percent. But as a I poke around the liberal idea factories here in Washington, I am hearing more and more about wealth taxes on the wealthy, just like they have in Europe.